Recent History Shows, Rookie Expectations Should Be Hopeful, But Modest

[AvengerRam]

On draft day, fans envision their team’s selections as bursting on the scene as rookies and immediately making a huge impact.

A lofty goal, but perhaps not a realistic one. While there certainly are examples of players who put up big numbers right away, in most cases it takes some time. Indeed, often the players who put up the best numbers as rookies do not end up being the best players over the long term.

So, while its great to dream of Chris Long getting 10 sacks next year, he probably won’t achieve that objective. Look at the top rookie DEs over the past three years:

(Year/Player/Tackles/Sacks/Forced Fumbles)
2007 Gaines Adams 38/6.0/2
2007 Brian Robison 26/4.5/1
2007 Tim Crowder 16/4.0/1
2006 Mark Anderson 28/12.0/4
2006 Elvis Dumervil 17/8.5/1
2006 Tamba Hali 58/8.0/5
2005 Trent Cole 46/5.0/1
2005 Erasmus James 28/4.0/1
2005 Luis Castillo 47/3.5/1

Apart from Anderson, who was the beneficiary of great line-mates, and Hali, who had an excellent all-around rookie year, those numbers don’t really jump off the page at you, do they? Also notable is the fact that the best DE to come along in the past 3 years – Mario Williams – didn’t even make the list in his rookie year (but he sure did have an impact as a second year player).

At WR, the same pattern emerges. Look at the list of the top rookie receiver in the past three years:

(Year/Player/Receptions/Yards/TDs)
2007 Dwayne Bowe 70/985/5
2007 Calvin Johnson 48/756/4
2007 James Jones 47/676/2
2006 Marques Colston 70/1,038/8
2006 Santonio Holmes 49/824/2
2006 Greg Jennings 45/632/3
2005 Mark Clayton 44/471/2
2005 Reggie Brown 43/571/4
2005 Matt Jones 36/432/5

Again, there are a couple of standouts (Colston, Bowe), and some solid first years, but most of the top rookies had very average campaigns.

So, while we certainly should hope and expect our top rookies to contribute next year, it would be a mistake to expect them to put up Pro Bowl numbers right away. The key stat is whether their presence on the team equates to more wins.