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  1. #1
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
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    Recent History Shows, Rookie Expectations Should Be Hopeful, But Modest

    On draft day, fans envision their teamís selections as bursting on the scene as rookies and immediately making a huge impact.

    A lofty goal, but perhaps not a realistic one. While there certainly are examples of players who put up big numbers right away, in most cases it takes some time. Indeed, often the players who put up the best numbers as rookies do not end up being the best players over the long term.

    So, while its great to dream of Chris Long getting 10 sacks next year, he probably wonít achieve that objective. Look at the top rookie DEs over the past three years:

    (Year/Player/Tackles/Sacks/Forced Fumbles)
    2007 Gaines Adams 38/6.0/2
    2007 Brian Robison 26/4.5/1
    2007 Tim Crowder 16/4.0/1
    2006 Mark Anderson 28/12.0/4
    2006 Elvis Dumervil 17/8.5/1
    2006 Tamba Hali 58/8.0/5
    2005 Trent Cole 46/5.0/1
    2005 Erasmus James 28/4.0/1
    2005 Luis Castillo 47/3.5/1

    Apart from Anderson, who was the beneficiary of great line-mates, and Hali, who had an excellent all-around rookie year, those numbers donít really jump off the page at you, do they? Also notable is the fact that the best DE to come along in the past 3 years Ė Mario Williams Ė didnít even make the list in his rookie year (but he sure did have an impact as a second year player).

    At WR, the same pattern emerges. Look at the list of the top rookie receiver in the past three years:

    (Year/Player/Receptions/Yards/TDs)
    2007 Dwayne Bowe 70/985/5
    2007 Calvin Johnson 48/756/4
    2007 James Jones 47/676/2
    2006 Marques Colston 70/1,038/8
    2006 Santonio Holmes 49/824/2
    2006 Greg Jennings 45/632/3
    2005 Mark Clayton 44/471/2
    2005 Reggie Brown 43/571/4
    2005 Matt Jones 36/432/5

    Again, there are a couple of standouts (Colston, Bowe), and some solid first years, but most of the top rookies had very average campaigns.

    So, while we certainly should hope and expect our top rookies to contribute next year, it would be a mistake to expect them to put up Pro Bowl numbers right away. The key stat is whether their presence on the team equates to more wins.
    Last edited by AvengerRam; -01-06-2009 at 03:35 PM.


  2. #2
    rampower's Avatar
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    Re: Recent History Shows, Rookie Expectations Should Be Hopeful, But Modest

    I hear what your sayin, I got draft fever this year probably more than I ever have. (the high pick position helped, but) I wonder how the stats pan out for percentage of players that make the grade in the NFL.

    Chances of every pick, or even half making the grade is probably not that high. I know we have high hopes for long and avery, but chances are, the real improvements on this team will have to come from witihin, bennett stepping up, carriker and Ryan improving in their second year, little and pace coming back to form and big years for bulger and jackson. If Long and avery can add reasonable numbers similar to those above and improve throughout the year then the draft has to be considered a success.

    I was quite low on avery to start with, admittedly due to ratings from other 'pro' analysts and I really wanted Kenny Phillips to drop to us. I know that might of left us to late for the best receivers in the draft, But I see safety as a need.

    Nonetheless, I am looking forward to seeing what these guys can do.
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  3. #3
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
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    Re: Recent History Shows, Rookie Expectations Should Be Hopeful, But Modest

    So how did our rookies do?

    Top Recent Rookie DEs
    2007 Gaines Adams 38/6.0/2
    2007 Brian Robison 26/4.5/1
    2007 Tim Crowder 16/4.0/1
    2006 Mark Anderson 28/12.0/4
    2006 Elvis Dumervil 17/8.5/1
    2006 Tamba Hali 58/8.0/5
    2005 Trent Cole 46/5.0/1
    2005 Erasmus James 28/4.0/1
    2005 Luis Castillo 47/3.5/1

    Chris Long
    40 tackles (4th out of 10 DEs)
    4.0 sacks (tied for 7th of 10 DEs)
    1 forced fumble (tied for 4th of 10 DEs)

    Top Recent Rookie WRs
    2007 Dwayne Bowe 70/985/5
    2007 Calvin Johnson 48/756/4
    2007 James Jones 47/676/2
    2006 Marques Colston 70/1,038/8
    2006 Santonio Holmes 49/824/2
    2006 Greg Jennings 45/632/3
    2005 Mark Clayton 44/471/2
    2005 Reggie Brown 43/571/4
    2005 Matt Jones 36/432/5

    Donnie Avery
    53 receptions (3rd out of 10 WRs)
    674 yards (6th out of 10 WRs)
    4 TDs (tied for 4th out of 10 WRs)

    So... I'd say that our rookies performed in a manner consistent with the top rookies at their positions in recent years. Where they go from here, only time will tell. But both are off to a nice start.


  4. #4
    Ramblin` Ram's Avatar
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    Re: Recent History Shows, Rookie Expectations Should Be Hopeful, But Modest

    the first thing i look at in a rookie is.."could they be a Bust?" i would never call anyone a bust just after their rookie season ...e.g Gholston might become one in the future but im not rating him as one at this early point..

    but i do think we can tell if a rookie is not a bust in their Rookie season..


    Long, i think if he had a healthy Carriker next to him would have had a couple more sacks atleast this year,but without that he`s certainly showed he`s not a bust.

    Donnie needs to improve his route running but i believe he will..the rumours that were about when he came out about him having poor hands have proved to be unfounded and the Aviator sure can fly!

    Donnie is unpolished but certainly showed enough for me to say he is not a bust!

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