30 Receptions, 411 Yards, 5 TDs

[AvengerRam]

Here's a prediction.

At the end of the 2008 season, unless Donnie Avery (and, to a lesser extent, Keenan Burton) bursts onto the scene and plays like a future Pro Bowl player, there will be fans who will use his rookie stats as "proof" that he was a bad selection. As further proof, they will cite to any rookie WR who has better rookie numbers.

To those people, I prospectively offer the following stats:

30 Receptions
411 Yards
5 TDs

What, you ask, are these stats supposed to represent?

Simple.

These are the average of the rookie stats of five WR who did not show their true potential as rookies. Rather, they, as these stats would indicate, produced moderate results that, in subsequent years, they greatly exceeded.

Those 5 players?

Chad Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Terrell Owens
Steve Smith
Isaac Bruce

Truth be told, without Fitzgerald's #s, which were good for a rookie (58/780/8), the averages would have been significantly lower.

So, while there's nothing wrong with hoping that Avery (or Burton) will be the next Marques Colston, if they are not, that DOES NOT MEAN they were the wrong choices.

As the saying goes, only time will tell.

[ramsplaya16]

good post i agree completely

[bigredman]

I don't know if you can simplify it to that extent. I mean, a receiver's stats depend on so much. The offensive scheme, primarily run first and throw or throw first and run. Then you have the defense. If your defense is dominate, it's likely that your offense doesn't have to do much and the numbers go down. If your offensive line sucks or the QB, I don't care how good a receiver you are, you can't catch what doesn't get thrown to ya. Booya!

[Fat Pang]

Good point and well made.

I have little hope it well get people off the Kiper/Schein inspired "Avery is a terrible" pick tourbus but it offers perspective.

[evil disco man]

A pre-meditated counter-argument. Nice.

BRM makes some very good points and I'd also like to add that it depends on whether they are playing on the outside, in the slot, or as a situational player. No matter how good they are, some rookies just don't get an opportunity to put up big numbers right away.

I'd be pleased if those were Avery's rookie stats.