AR's Handy-Dandy Guide to Predicting the Expert Predictions

Around this time of year, the "experts" of the media will start making their NFL predictions. The one thing you can be sure of with respect to these predictions… they will be predictable.

So, I give you, AvengerRam's Handy Dandy Guide to Predicting the Expert Predictions:


The Obvious Favorites
These are the teams that had good years last year and are expected to do so again.
Why the "experts" like them: Good chance that they will validate those who pick them
Why the "experts" might avoid them: Anyone can pick an obvious choice. What does that prove?
This year's obvious favorites: New England, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis

The Going to the Next Level Teams
These are the teams that were second tier last year, but made enough changes during the offseason to make them popular choices to go to the next level.
Why the "experts" like them: Picking one of these teams is more daring than an obvious favorite.
Why the "experts" might avoid them: Choosing them may still result in bandwagon label.
This year's Going to the Next Level teams: Atlanta, Minnesota, Baltimore, San Diego, Denver, Seattle, Jacksonville

The Under the Radar Teams
These are either teams that are perhaps prematurely considered on the decline, or may be rising with little notice.
Why the "experts" like them: They don't.
Why the "experts" might avoid them: They will.
This year's Under the Radar Teams: Kansas City, Green Bay, St. Louis, Houston, New York Jets, Carolina

The Flavor of the Year Teams
These are teams that have a long way to go, but nonetheless will be picked by "experts" trying to make a name for themselves. Often this is the result of high profile acquisitions, or a winning streak at the end of the previous season.
Why the "experts" like them: All the "experts" want to be able to say "you heard it here first."
Why the "experts" might avoid them: Nobody wants to hear at the end of the year "you picked who?"
This year's Flavor of the Year Teams: Buffalo, Oakland, Dallas, Detroit, Arizona, Cincinnati

The Little or No Hope Teams
Some teams simply won't be picked. That's not to say they have no chance, but they are neither obvious choices, nor are they perceived to be up and coming teams.
Why the "experts" like them: Again, they don't.
Why the "experts" might avoid them: Because the "experts," in fact, lack the expertise to anticipate the true "out of nowhere" teams.
This year's Little or No Hope Teams: Miami, Tennessee, New York Giants, Washington, Chicago, Tampa Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Cleveland

AR, Good categorization, but who do you pick?

Well, I do not consider myself an expert. I am a fan.

As a fan, I ask myself one question:

Is it within the realm of reasonable possibility that the Rams could win it all?

If the answer is "yes" (and there were years in the 90s when it was "no"), then I pick the Rams to win it all.

In 2005, I'm picking the Rams to win it all.