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  1. #1
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    Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams/Sando

    Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams
    By Mike Sando

    ESPN.com - Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams

    2012 Rams Offense
    Amendola on field Yes No
    Plays 478 520
    Yards/play 5.4 5.1
    Yards/pass att. 6.7 6.8
    Yards/rush att. 4.3 4.2
    Drop backs 319 283
    TD pass 13 8
    INT 7 7
    Sack pct. 5.3 6.4
    Rush TD 2 3
    Total Yards 2,574 2,658
    Source: ESPN Stats & Information


    Sam Bradford's life as the St. Louis Rams' quarterback improves when receiver Danny Amendola is available to him.

    That is a logical assumption to make if you've seen Amendola play. The statistical evidence backs up the assumption on third down in particular. But as the Rams seek to set Amendola's value heading toward free agency, they should not blindly assume that Amendola is the key to their offense in the future.

    Chris Givens was rapidly emerging as a more dynamic option and a receiver the team can build around at a bargain price. Tight end Lance Kendricks was also increasingly productive. The team cannot be certain Amendola will avoid the injury problems that have limited him to nine games over the past two seasons. They've also seen Austin Pettis improve as a red zone threat. And they have to figure 2012 second-round choice Brian Quick will contribute more this season.

    Those are among the factors I wanted to throw out for discussion as the Rams and other NFL teams spent the next couple of weeks deciding whether to restrict key free agents by naming them franchise players. Amendola would receive a one-year offer for $10.357 million as a franchise wide receiver. That figure would set general expectations for the annual average on a long-term deal.


    2012 Bradford on 3rd/4th Downs
    Amendola on field Yes No
    Comp. 53 39
    Att. 92 76
    Pct. 57.6 51.3
    Yards 602 417
    Yards/att. 6.5 5.5
    TD 3 1
    INT 2 3
    NFL rating 79.2 55.6
    Sacked 9 10
    Total QBR 52.6 5.7
    Source: ESPN Stats & Information


    The first chart shows the Rams' general stats with and without Amendola on the field last season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Yardage-based averages are similar. The team completed touchdown passes on 4.1 percent of drop backs when Amendola was on the field, up from 2.8 percent without him.

    As the second chart shows, Amendola's value to Bradford appears to peak on third and fourth downs. The Total QBR scores -- 52.6 with Amendola to only 5.7 without him -- suggest Bradford had trouble functioning without Amendola in those situations.

    The relatively small sample sizes warn against overreaction, of course. Other factors beyond Amendola were at work. But the numbers affirm what we've thought about Amendola for some time. He's a very good third-down receiver. One question is whether that value extends widely enough to warrant $10 million per season.

    The final chart shows Bradford's numbers on first and second downs, with and without Amendola. The traditional passing stats -- completion percentage, yards per attempt, NFL passer rating -- are nearly identical. Bradford's QBR score in these situations was actually higher without Amendola.


    2012 Sam Bradford on 1st-2nd Downs
    Amendola on field Yes No
    Comp. 129 108
    Att. 207 176
    Pct. 61.8 61.4
    Yards 1,396 1,287
    Yards/att. 6.7 6.8
    TD 10 7
    INT 5 3
    NFL rating 87.8 89.8
    Sacked 8 8
    Total QBR 57.9 69.1
    Source: ESPN Stats & Information


    Brandon Gibson, the Rams' leader in receptions, receiving yardage and receiving touchdowns over the past two seasons, is without a contract for the 2013 season. Losing Amendola would amplify an existing need at receiver.

    But it's also clear a team that drafts well can come out far ahead.

    Givens, Quick and Pettis are on pace to cost the Rams less than $11 million combined over the four-year lives of their contracts. Amendola would earn nearly that much in 2013 alone if the Rams named him their franchise player.

    The Rams have four first-round selections over the 2013 and 2014 drafts. They'll have opportunities to continue building their receiving corps at low cost.

    In the meantime, they've got decisions to make.


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    Why Rams won't Tag Amendola/ JT

    Jim Thomas ‏@jthom1

    Why Rams won't tag Amendola: Franchise tag for wideouts is $10.357 million; it's still $8.716 million for the transition tag.

    Mike Sando, ESPN.com ‏@espn_nfcwest

    Givens, Quick and Pettis on pace to cost Rams <$11M combined over 4 yrs. Franchising Amendola would cost $10M+ for 1 yr. @jthom1



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    Re: Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams/Sando

    4/26m is too much for DA.

    If SJ is not worth 7m/yr than DA can't be worth 6.5m/yr.
    Semper Fi!

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    Re: Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams/Sando

    Quote Originally Posted by Richbert88 View Post
    4/26m is too much for DA.

    If SJ is not worth 7m/yr than DA can't be worth 6.5m/yr.
    The problem with that type of anaylsis is that its not an "apples to apples" comparison.

    If we're talking about a 1-2 year deal, I'd pay SJax more, as I think he has another year or two left as a productive RB.

    If we're talking about a 3-4 year deal, it is more likely (barring additional injuries) that Amendola will be able to remain productive over that entire span.

    Hardly an easy decision.

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    Re: Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams/Sando

    4 years for 25 million seems reasonable to me... I highly doubt his agent would agree though

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    Re: Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams/Sando

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    The problem with that type of anaylsis is that its not an "apples to apples" comparison.

    If we're talking about a 1-2 year deal, I'd pay SJax more, as I think he has another year or two left as a productive RB.

    If we're talking about a 3-4 year deal, it is more likely (barring additional injuries) that Amendola will be able to remain productive over that entire span.

    Hardly an easy decision.
    I get what your saying here. Allow me to clarify.

    SJ is now 29 going on 30 and would cost 7m. DA is now 27 going on 28, in two years with the 4/26 contract at an avg of 6.5m a year......DA will be the same age SJ is now. 0.5m less worth though.

    DA, love him, but he has trouble staying healthy for a season.

    I'm thinking projection..... a 30 yr old DA and a 30yr old SJ, and I think SJ has been and would be <opinion> more valuable. And 7m for SJ looks like too much, so 6.5m for DA also looks like too much. And barring injury, SJ may be able to stay productive too. Guys amazing.

    I understand the RB to WR thing too. On that, I just don't think DA rises to the level of 6.5m a year. I think he may be more replaceable than we think if SB gets decent protection. IF SB gets protection, the whole passing game probably evolves and suddenly the guys that are here would look better.

    I'd like DA back. I just cant see paying him 4/26m.
    Semper Fi!

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    Re: Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams/Sando

    A 4 year deal worth 25 million should suffice... if not tell him and his greedy agent to kick rocks

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    Re: Assessing Amendola's worth to Rams/Sando

    I'm thinking no more than 5 to 5.5 million a year for 3 or 4 years, take it or leave it. There are cheaper, less injured replacements in the draft.

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    Agents really have to LOVE the Internet.

    I would wager there have been, at a minimum, over 500 articles, blogs, tweets, mentions on NFL and ESPN networks, and whatever Facebook missives are called about DA.

    Everybody loves Danny- how do you not? - but anything over $4M a year is insane, especially guaranteed.

    I remember the same frenzy over Bartell-and for the life of me, STILL do not know why. He wasn't that good and was injured a lot. And IIRC, was out of the league a year after leaving the Rams. And we payed that guy a LOT.

    DA's gone, and it will turn out to be yet another in a long line if good decisions by Snead and Fisher.
    Last edited by VegasRam; -02-20-2013 at 01:18 PM.
    "the Heart Lies and the Head Plays Tricks with us, but the Eyes See True".

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