throwback week



Results 1 to 13 of 13
  1. #1
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    19,041
    Rep Power
    171

    Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    I do a version of this analysis every year, and it has, at times, been a good indicator of the Rams' fortunes (though, last year, with the injuries, I was way off).

    Here's how it works. I place each game on the schedule into one of four categories:

    "Must win" games - these are the games that the Rams absolutely must win and, for the purposes of the analysis, I will presume they will win.

    "Should win" games - these are the games that the Rams should win. I will presume that they will win 75% of those games.

    "Toss-up" games - these are too close to call. I will presume that the Rams will win 50% of those games.

    "Longshot" games - these are the games I don't expect the Rams to win. I will presume that they might steal 1 in 4 of these games (25%).

    So, here's how I see this year's schedule:

    @Eagles - LS
    Giants - TU
    @ Seahawks - LS
    Bills - SW
    @ Redskins - TU
    Cowboys - LS
    @ Patriots - LS
    Cardinals - SW
    @ Jets - SW
    @ Niners - TU
    Bears - SW
    Dolphins - MW
    @ Cardinals - TU
    Seahawks - TU
    Niners - SW
    @ Falcons - MW

    Total:

    Must Win Games (2 ) = 2 wins
    Should win Games (5) = 3.75 wins
    Toss-up Games (5)= 2.5 wins
    Longshot Games (4) = 1 win

    Total expected wins = 9.25


  2. #2
    UtterBlitz's Avatar
    UtterBlitz is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    3,439
    Rep Power
    41

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    SLOP supports Scott Linehan???? am confused.

    2 MWs including the last game of the year. I fail to see how the last game of the year is a MW.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  3. #3
    MauiRam's Avatar
    MauiRam is online now Pro Bowl Ram
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Maui, Hi.
    Age
    70
    Posts
    4,958
    Rep Power
    79

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by UtterBlitz View Post
    SLOP supports Scott Linehan???? am confused.

    2 MWs including the last game of the year. I fail to see how the last game of the year is a MW.
    I'll venture a guess: If we assume that Av is correct and we have eight wins going into the last game of the season, winning the last game could conceivably get us into the playoffs. Even if we didn't have enough wins to make the playoffs, we still project as a stronger team (at this juncture) than the Falcons.

    My must win game is our opener in Philly .. I believe we can and will win that game ... We win there, and good things will happen in 08 ..

  4. #4
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    19,041
    Rep Power
    171

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    The term "must win," as used in this context, has nothing to do with the urgency of getting a victory at that stage of the season. Rather, it simply means that the opponent is so weak that the Rams must be expected to get a "W" in that week.

    As for SLOP's "support" of Linehan... its merely a function of this being a new year. SLOP will start from a presumption of supporting Linehan. If the team underperforms, however, that could certainly change.

    I'm not going to set a specific number of games that the Rams mut win for Linehan to return. The schedule is a tough one, and it could be a difficult first half of the season. However, I think the Rams have enough talent that they should be able to do well in the second half of the season, so I'll be looking at the team's progress as much as anything else.

  5. #5
    UtterBlitz's Avatar
    UtterBlitz is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Virginia
    Posts
    3,439
    Rep Power
    41

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    I think it is pretty hard to determine that the falcons will be that bad by the end of the season that that game is a must win. They have plenty of time to be getting it together before we play them. They won 4 games last year including wins against Seattle and the niners.

    Linehan still has plenty to prove in my eyes. This year will be interesting. The schedule is not an easy one.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  6. #6
    HUbison's Avatar
    HUbison is offline Superbowl MVP
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Kentucky
    Age
    40
    Posts
    13,706
    Rep Power
    145

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by Utter
    I think it is pretty hard to determine that the falcons will be that bad by the end of the season that that game is a must win.
    While I agree that any week from Sept. through December is hard to predict in May through August, I also think that for the sake of argument, we can at least speculate. Are the Falcons a Must Win? Are the Patriots a Long Shot? To-mA-to, to-ma-to.

    But I see where AV got his call of 'cons as a MW: rookie QB, starting RB w/ 1 career start, underachievers on D & WR (outside of White)...
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

  7. #7
    r8rh8rmike's Avatar
    r8rh8rmike is online now Superbowl MVP
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    29 Palms, Ca.
    Age
    55
    Posts
    12,061
    Rep Power
    131

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    But I see where AV got his call of 'cons as a MW: rookie QB, starting RB w/ 1 career start, underachievers on D & WR (outside of White)...
    Add to that a first time head coach with a new staff. All things being equal, the Falcons qualify as a must win.

  8. #8
    RAM-BO's Avatar
    RAM-BO is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Gainesville, VA
    Posts
    908
    Rep Power
    12

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    @ Seahawks - LS Why is seahawks a longshot? Seems like a toss up to me. We usually put up a good fight against them. It could be because it is at Qwest, but I'm still not feeling it

  9. #9
    TekeRam's Avatar
    TekeRam is offline Registered User
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Lexington, Kentucky, United States
    Age
    31
    Posts
    3,879
    Rep Power
    71

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    Rambo, given recent history, when Holmgren has had our number, I would say that it is a long shot that we'll win at Seattle, as we can't even beat them in the dome. That said, we did steal one of their best weapons against us in Josh Brown, I think I still give the edge to the 'Hags at their place. Why? Let's see.

    1. No more Alexander. The former MVP took everything left in the tank to get that MVP and he's been a shell of his former self since. Now they'll have a young gun in Julius Jones who, while having not done much in Dallas, and still not having the complete trust of the coaches it seems in Seattle, will have a large chip on his shoulder to do well.

    2. Hasselbeck. Yes he lost some weapons, but he also has Deion Branch with another year of coaching and being in the system. He also has two other good weapons in Burleson and Engram. Losing Hackett will hurt but a 4th receiver is easy enough to come by. As for Matt himself, he's still a sub-elite QB who gets the job done, week in, week out.

    3. The defense. Formed around an amazingly strong linebacker corps, Seattle has the best defense in the division. They have a pro bowler in Patrick Kerney and stars in the backfield as well. I think for us to have success against this group we're going to have to spread the field and make them bring in their nickel and dime defenses, attacking them with Avery and some draw plays to Jackson.

    4. I'm not sure if this will actually be an hinderance or a benefit to them but, It's Holmgren's last year. Will the players be playing for him, a good ol' "Win one for the Gipper" year? Or will they be playing for their new head coach, Jim Mora? If the players are mixed, the whole thing could crumble. However, they've enjoyed long term success under Holmgren, including a trip to the Super Bowl, so I think that they will most likely be motivated to send their coach out in style. It will be an interesting year in Seattle, no doubt, and remember, since Holmgren has nothing to lose, expect him to play like that too.

  10. #10
    HUbison's Avatar
    HUbison is offline Superbowl MVP
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Kentucky
    Age
    40
    Posts
    13,706
    Rep Power
    145

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by RAM-BO View Post
    @ Seahawks - LS Why is seahawks a longshot? Seems like a toss up to me. We usually put up a good fight against them. It could be because it is at Qwest, but I'm still not feeling it
    I think Teke is right. After taking 3 from them in '04, we've lost 6 straight. Some have been close; the 3 home losses have only been by a combined 13 points. The '06 road loss wasn't bad (2 points), but they stuck it to the Rams last year (27 points).

    I think the gap has lessened, but it still remains.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

  11. #11
    Mooselini Guest

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    For next season I'm afraid that the Cardinals will be tougher than the Seahawks......

  12. #12
    Nick's Avatar
    Nick is offline Superbowl MVP
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Morgantown, WV
    Age
    32
    Posts
    19,867
    Rep Power
    154

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    Overall, pretty good. Only a few things I disagree on.

    -I see the Week One game against Philly as being a bigger toss up than the Week 2 game against the Super Bowl champion Giants.

    -Both Cardinals games should be toss ups, IMO. They've beaten us three of the last four times, with our only victory coming in early 2006 because of Warner's miracle fumble at the end of the game.

  13. #13
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is offline Moderator Emeritus
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Longwood, Florida, United States
    Age
    46
    Posts
    19,041
    Rep Power
    171

    Re: Av's Annual Schedule Analysis

    I'd like to think (though recent history does not really support the notion) that the Rams still have a significant home field advatage, which explains my ratings of the Eagles and Giants games.

    As for the Cardinals, I'm stil not sold, particularly if they insist on starting Matt Leinart.

Similar Threads

  1. Av's Annual Schedule Breakdown
    By AvengerRam in forum RAM TALK
    Replies: 16
    Last Post: -08-30-2007, 03:18 AM
  2. Schedule Coming Out Wednesday
    By RamWraith in forum NFL TALK
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: -04-10-2007, 07:25 PM
  3. Dynamic, Interactive 2006 NFL Schedule...
    By MadForPlaid in forum RAM TALK
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: -08-13-2006, 06:10 PM
  4. Rams schedule looks promising - in early April
    By RamWraith in forum RAM TALK
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: -04-08-2006, 10:12 AM
  5. Salary Cap Request
    By HUbison in forum RAM TALK
    Replies: 7
    Last Post: -12-31-2004, 02:48 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •