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Thread: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

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    Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    At this point, it seems that there are eight players (not including Mark Clayton, who could be brought back later) who are fighting for six roster spots.

    Here's how I view their odds of surviving the cut:

    Mike Sims-Walker: 100%
    Has physical tools, production and virtually no risk (1 year deal). He stays.

    Danny Amendola: 95%
    He has limited upside, but should fit the McDaniels system well. Unless someone wants to trade a CB for him, he stays.

    Brandon Gibson: 85%
    His stock has risen more than any other receiver this preseason, but part of me wonders if he is being showcased as possible trade bait. Probably not, but its possible.

    Donnie Avery: 75%
    If his knee holds up, the Rams will want the threat of his speed on the field. If he can't get/stay healthy, the Rams could use his cap share for another player.

    Austin Pettis: 65%
    He has not shown much in the preseason so far, but I doubt the Rams will part with a third round pick so quickly. Outside chance they take the risk of sending him to the practice squad.

    Greg Salas: 65%
    The Rams don't have quite as much invested in Salas as they do in Pettis, but he has arguably outperformed his fellow rookie thus far. Like Pettis, his worst case scenario is a practice squad assignment.

    Mardy Gilyard: 50%
    I'm frankly surprised I have him this high in the rankings. His "ace in the hole" is his special teams role. In addition to his return abilties, he's become fairly noticeable in kick coverage.

    Danario Alexander: 25%
    If the decision were made on the basis of heart, DX would be a shoe-in. Unfortunately, his knees present too great a risk, particularly given his failings in last year's finale and his minimal productivity in preseason.


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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    his minimal productivity in preseason.
    I don't know that I would argue with your overall point, but in fairness, DX is the leading WR (stats-wise) in this preseason. Only Amendola has as many catches. And only Gibson has even half as many yards (though all but 3 yards were on one play).

    Personally, I think the knee goes before the final cut down and this becomes a moot point. And even if the knee doesn't go, the spectre of it could be (maybe even should be) enough to shy away. However, in this case, I don't think we can use preseason production as justification.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    I don't know that I would argue with your overall point, but in fairness, DX is the leading WR (stats-wise) in this preseason. Only Amendola has as many catches. And only Gibson has even half as many yards (though all but 3 yards were on one play).
    Fair enough. My point was more that his performance has not stood out and, given his knees, I think it needs to for him to bump another player off the roster.

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    i love you dx, but i love the rams more... that's why if i was part of the FO.. I'd cut you and let you go on some other team to shine and fight for a spot. We have talent on our side between gilyard and avery and we can't let that go.. hope the best for you though.. KEEP AVERY!! we need a speedster

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Av, this is well thought out. Good analysis. I am certainly not a math major, but i think if six guys are competing for 8 spots, more than one of them has to have less than a 50-50 chance of making the team. Personally, i think its 7 guys competing for six spots because i dont think DX will be kept given the situation with the knee. To me, the guy on the bubble is really gilyard because i would be surprised if we cut one of the rookies (although we could try to put salas on the practice squad). If avery can run, he is going to make the team. Bottom line, we need at least something on the roster that is a remote threat to stretch the defense and avery is the only guy we have that can do that.

    Ramming speed to all

    general counsel


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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    doesn't anyone think we will keep 7 wr? ... I honestly really try to keep up.. but the last couple years I work 80 hr weeks .. and I just don't have time to really know all the changes.. but I have heard a couple times we might keep 7.. and especially with a chance of clayton returning.. and the comp we have going.. I am honestly just curious why wouldn't we keep 7?

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Nice work as always AV...

    Question for you? What would you do today if you had to make the cuts? Not sure that Austin Pettis and or Greg Salas would clear the waiver wire, I think that both would get snapped up.


    Here is my take:

    I think we keep seven due to health issues. We keep seven and most likely will loose one during the season and it will happen quick. Sorry if that's sounds really negative, but it's been our pattern and these guys all seem to get hurt. The turf at the dome is not the best surface to play on and stay healthy.


    Mike Sims-Walker: 100% We still will not have a true one but MSW is close enough.

    Danny Amendola: 100% All he does is catch the ball.

    Brandon Gibson 100% Big target getting better everyday.

    Donnie Avery: 75% If is a big word he stays healthy will have his best year.

    Mardy Gilyard: 75% Has shown big time play making ability with the ball in his hands. PR and Gunner on special teams.

    Austin Pettis: 65% Rookie with no OTA's looks like a solid possession WR.

    Greg Salas: 65% Rookie with no OTA's faster and stronger then I thought but needs to settle in.

    Danario Alexander: 65% DX love the guy like all of us... if his knee was good he would not be a Ram. Depending on how he feels over the next two weeks... may need to cut him have him do the surgery. He should clear the waiver wire. Bring him back to the practice squad. (if he can) Give him one more year in a non strike year to work with the Rams to get ready for next year.

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    I think we will keep 7 and DX will probably be told to rehab his Knee on the practice squad because it is obviously bothering him again...during that time someone else could always get hurt...

    Look at our TE situation already....You never know what can happen....and I really like Gilyard winning the KR roles so he needs to be there.....

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Greg Salas really doesn't impress me as much as the rest of the fanboys here....

    He is very stiff and doesn't have elite skills. His desire to get the ball is greater than most and he is a great athlete but I don't think he is anything but organization WR depth on any NFL team.

    Seriously, there are tons of guys like him as #4 or #5 WR's throughout the league. Couple that, with the fact that his body doesn't have much room to grow, simply makes him a backup player for the slot WR position only...


    I really don't see Salas having an impact on this team or any team in the league. He probably will have a year or 2 here and fade into backup teamhopping

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    I dont think MSW is 100% at all. He has injury issues like most of our WR's and so far hasn't done anything to set himself apart from any other WR's. Thats why I didn't love the signing, though it was good. I appreciate the fact that we are going after guys to improve the position but I wanted to grab someone really good if we were going to get rid of someone with crazy potential (DX). Dont get me wrong, he can be productive, but I have a funny feeling we will be talking about Alshon Jeffrey in about 7 months. Lets hope im wrong.

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Not to be a nit, but your percentages add up to 5.6. If anything I'd expect them to add up to greater than 6 since I think there's a non-zero chance we hold 7 WRs.

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Question for you? What would you do today if you had to make the cuts? Not sure that Austin Pettis and or Greg Salas would clear the waiver wire, I think that both would get snapped up.
    I'd probably let Gilyard and Alexander go.

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_Weasel View Post
    Not to be a nit, but your percentages add up to 5.6. If anything I'd expect them to add up to greater than 6 since I think there's a non-zero chance we hold 7 WRs.
    My analysis was not intended to cover all mathematical possibilities. Other potential scenarios include re-signing Clayton, trading for a WR, signing a FA WR, or keeping a longshot not listed.

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    I dont think MSW is 100% at all. He has injury issues like most of our WR's and so far hasn't done anything to set himself apart from any other WR's.
    Sure he has. He's produced more in the NFL than any WR on the Rams roster.

    I have a funny feeling we will be talking about Alshon Jeffrey in about 7 months. Lets hope im wrong.
    Maybe, but that's okay. While this year's WR will hopefully be adequate, I have no doubt it could be upgraded in the future.

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    Re: Av's WR Analysis: Who stays, who goes?

    Is there any chance we keep 7 wide receivers? If we were to keep 7 hypothetically that means we'd be short a guy at another position - wonder what that would be?

    With regard to Av's list, I can't find anything to disagree with. To those of you who may feel Pettis hasn't done much so far, I'd agree. However, I would temper that with the fact that he is a ROOKIE! Given that he is not possessed of blazing speed, he isn't going to flash as often as perhaps a 4.25 - 4.3 guy. That said, when the game begins to slow down for him he will gradually appear faster. I believe he makes the team, and in 3 years we'll have forgotten all about his "slowness and lack of separation." My two cents anyway ..

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