Bad Draft Picks

[Barry Waller]

often find it amusing when fans go off on every bad Rams draft pick, even second day picks, when those guys don't make it.

As a long time draftnik, and a person who looks at every draft in pretty great detail, and one who once did a detailed study of the odds of draft picks making any impact by round selected, I can tell you that after round one and two, most don't make it, and about half of the #2 picks don't either.

For those who point out how wise teams like the Colts and Patriots are every draft, and how on draft day the guys they draft are labelled good picks immediately by some, here is some elightening info.


Look at some of these team's picks from the late 90s till 2005. I don't use more recent drafts because you cannot label a second or third year player a bust already in most cases.

Indianapolis Colts

Rd 1 busts - Rob Morris LB 2000
Rd 2 busts- Larry Triplett DT 2002, Idrees Bashir DB 2001, Dedric Mathis DB 1996
Rd 3 busts - EG Green WR 1998, Cory Bird DB 2001, Don Strickland CB 2003, Gilbert Gardner LB 2004, Vince Burns DE 2005


New England

Rd 1 busts Andy KAtzenmoyer LB 1999
Rd 2 busts Tony Simmons WR 1998, Rod Rutledge TE 1998, JR Redmond RB 2000, Adrian Klemm OT 2000, Bethel Johnson WR 2003
Rd 3 busts - Guss Scott CB 2004, Brock Williams 2001

Those are just the top three rounds

So whenever you dwell on Jacobey Shepherd, Trung Canidate, Joe Klopfenstein, Brian Leonard, or S Jon Alston, and others that fail, keep in mind even the very best have a ton of bust picks.

[KoaKoi]

I like the point you're trying to make, but to be honest, i'm not so sure you've convinced me of anything.

ok, so the Colts had 9 busts in the first 3 rounds during your and the Patriots had 8.

In order to prove your point, shouldn't there also be a list of Rams draft busts for comparison? By leaving that blank, all you've really told us "even teams like the Colts and Pat's have busts too". No argument there - i'm sure every team has busts. But the real question your dancing around, is: 'do the Rams have a disproportionate number of high round draft busts than other teams'.

here's what i see:

During that same stretch... Rams had 14 busts in rounds 1-3. Throw in 2006 and its a very easy 17!

Another area not discussed in your post is the number of high pick busts in a given year. it's one thing to have a 2nd round bust, sandwiched between a solid 1st and 3rd pick. But you can't underestimate the hugely negative impact that picking 3 busts in a row in one draft sitting can do to a team... and their fans' psche. I think we can all agree that a single bad draft can set a team very far back... both in depth and financial resources. So with that in mind, check these years out:

check out Rams picks in 2000 (Canidate, Shepherd, St. Clair) did somebody say "oops"... or at least apologize for this one?

Or how about 2001: (Lewis, Archuleta, Picket in the 1st rounds, and Polley & Allen in 2nd and 3rd). ok, so the 1st round guys had some talent, but not one player played up to their pick status and not one out of the 5 stayed on longer than a couple/few years.

Or my all time favorite... 2006: tye hill, Klop, Wroten, Alston, Byrd. You may be right, that NORMALLY you can't call players a draft bust until they've been in the league a few years, but such NORMAL rational thought clearly holds no candle to the stupendous draft intelligence of the Rams organization. In this case, all 3 3rd round guys are already bone fide busts, and there's a heck of a lot of discussion floating around the other 2.


so again, i like the point you're trying to make, cuz yeah... not every team gets it right and we shouldn't holler and moan like Jets fans every time the Rams make a pick. But given their unique ability to really really screw up a draft... it's really hard not to be VERY wary when the Rams are on the clock. thank goodness the old FO is out. so far, i like what billy d has done, and he's got a clean slate as far as i'm concerned.

[KoaKoi]

Thought it might be fun for everyone to see the Rams picks from '96 to '06. check it out:

2006 Rnd Name College
1 Tye Hill Clemson
2 Joe Klopfenstein Colorado
3 Claude Wroten Louisiana State
3 Jon Alston Stanford
3 Dominique Byrd USC
4 Victor Adeyanju Indiana
5 Marques Hagans Virginia
7 Tim McGarigle Northwestern
7 Mark Setterstrom Minnesota
7 Tony Palmer Missouri
2005 Rnd Name College
1 Alex Barron Florida State
2 Ronald Bartell Howard
3 Oshiomogho Atogwe Stanford
3 Richie Incognito Nebraska
4 Jerome Carter Florida State
4 Claude Terrell New Mexico
5 Jerome Collins Notre Dame
6 Dante Ridgeway Ball State
6 Reggie Hodges Ball State
7 Ryan Fitzpatrick Harvard
7 Madison Hedgecock North Carolina
2004 Rnd Name College
1 Steven Jackson Oregon State
3 Tony Hargrove Georgia Tech
4 Brandon Chillar UCLA
5 Jason Shivers Arizona State
6 Jeff Smoker Michigan State
7 Erik Jensen Iowa
7 Larry Turner Eastern Kentucky
2003 Rnd Name College
1 Jimmy Kennedy Penn State
2 Pisa Tinoisamoa Hawaii
3 Kevin Curtis Utah State
4 Shaun McDonald Arizona State
4 DeJuan Groce Nebraska
5 Dan Curley Eastern Washington
5 Shane Walton Notre Dame
5 Kevin Garrett Southern Methodist
6 Scott Tercero California
7 Scott Shanle Nebraska
7 Richard Angulo Western New Mexico
2002 Rnd Name College
1 Robert Thomas UCLA
2 Travis Fisher Central Florida
3 Lamar Gordon North Dakota State
3 Eric Crouch Nebraska
4 Travis Scott Arizona State
5 Courtland Bullard Ohio State
6 Steve Bellisari Ohio State
7 Chris Massey Marshall
2001 Rnd Name College N 1 Damione Lewis Miami (FL)
1 Adam Archuleta Arizona State
1 Ryan Pickett Ohio State
2 Tommy Polley Florida State
3 Brian Allen Florida State
4 Milton Wynn Washington State
4 Brandon Manumaleuna Arizona
5 Jerametrius Butler Kansas State
6 Francis S. Paul Northern Arizona
2000 Rnd Name College
1 Trung Canidate Arizona
2 Jacoby Shepherd Oklahoma State
3 John St. Clair Virginia
4 Kaulana Noa Hawaii
5 Brian Young Texas-El Paso
6 Matt Bowen Iowa
7 Andrew Kline San Diego State
1999 Rnd Name College
1 Torry Holt North Carolina State
2 Dre' Bly North Carolina
3 Rich Coady Texas A&M
4 Joe Germaine Ohio State
5 Cameron Spikes Texas A&M
6 Lionel Barnes N.E. Louisiana
7 Rodney Williams Georgia Tech
1998 Rnd Name College
1 Grant Wistrom Nebraska
2 Robert Holcombe Illinois
3 Leonard Little Tennessee
4 Az Hakim San Diego State
4 Roland Williams Syracuse
5 Raymond Priester Clemson
6 Glenn Rountree Clemson
7 Jason Chorak Washington
1997 Rnd Name College
1 Orlando Pace Ohio State
2 Dexter McCleon Clemson
4 Ryan Tucker Texas Christian
5 Taje Allen Texas
6 Muadianvita Kazadi Tulsa
7 Cedric White North Carolina A&T
1996 Rnd Name College
1 Lawrence Phillips Nebraska
1 Eddie Kennison Louisiana State
2 Tony Banks Michigan State
2 Ernie Conwell Washington
3 Jerald Moore Oklahoma
4 Percell Gaskins Kansas State
5 Fred Miller Baylor
6 Derrick Harris Miami (FL)
6 Hayward Clay Texas A&M
7 Chuck Osborne Arizona

[RamsInfiniti]

I like the point you're trying to make, but to be honest, i'm not so sure you've convinced me of anything.

ok, so the Colts had 9 busts in the first 3 rounds during your and the Patriots had 8.

In order to prove your point, shouldn't there also be a list of Rams draft busts for comparison? By leaving that blank, all you've really told us "even teams like the Colts and Pat's have busts too". No argument there - i'm sure every team has busts. But the real question your dancing around, is: 'do the Rams have a disproportionate number of high round draft busts than other teams'.

here's what i see:

During that same stretch... Rams had 14 busts in rounds 1-3. Throw in 2006 and its a very easy 17!

Another area not discussed in your post is the number of high pick busts in a given year. it's one thing to have a 2nd round bust, sandwiched between a solid 1st and 3rd pick. But you can't underestimate the hugely negative impact that picking 3 busts in a row in one draft sitting can do to a team... and their fans' psche. I think we can all agree that a single bad draft can set a team very far back... both in depth and financial resources. So with that in mind, check these years out:

check out Rams picks in 2000 (Canidate, Shepherd, St. Clair) did somebody say "oops"... or at least apologize for this one?

Or how about 2001: (Lewis, Archuleta, Picket in the 1st rounds, and Polley & Allen in 2nd and 3rd). ok, so the 1st round guys had some talent, but not one player played up to their pick status and not one out of the 5 stayed on longer than a couple/few years.

Or my all time favorite... 2006: tye hill, Klop, Wroten, Alston, Byrd. You may be right, that NORMALLY you can't call players a draft bust until they've been in the league a few years, but such NORMAL rational thought clearly holds no candle to the stupendous draft intelligence of the Rams organization. In this case, all 3 3rd round guys are already bone fide busts, and there's a heck of a lot of discussion floating around the other 2.


so again, i like the point you're trying to make, cuz yeah... not every team gets it right and we shouldn't holler and moan like Jets fans every time the Rams make a pick. But given their unique ability to really really screw up a draft... it's really hard not to be VERY wary when the Rams are on the clock. thank goodness the old FO is out. so far, i like what billy d has done, and he's got a clean slate as far as i'm concerned.

I think you might have missed the point here ...

Let's assume the Colts and Pats have 8 or 9, and we have 14 ...

I think Barry is trying to show that the Colts and Pats are considered to be the gold standard when it comes to drafts. He wasn't necessarily comparing us to them in the same light ...

But if the teams who consistently draft well have 8 or 9 busts, and we have 14, there are probably teams that have 16 or 18. We are probably middle of the pack, better than some, worse than some ...

As Rams fans, we examine our drafts closely. I doubt most spend much time examining other teams. If you did, you'd find big busts all across the league ...

[unorthodox1999]

I think when you lose as much as we do, it just stings that much more..When you lose alot you tend to dwell alot, therefore this subject comes up..

[general counsel]

There is no way in the world that arch and pickett belong on any bust list. Arch played well against the run, was limited in coverage, but was never the same after he got hurt. He was hardly a bust. Pickett led the entire nfc in tackles for a defensive tackle the year before we let him go like idiots.

ramming speed to all

general counsel

[jmk321]

There is a reason the Rams have 5 wins in the last 2 seasons and a big reason for the lack of winning is terrible drafts. Teams that consistantly have good drafts like the Patriots, Colts and Giants do have busts but they also have many players that develope into pro bowlers and solid starters. The Rams don't.

I just don't really see what presenting only one side of an argument that clearly has 2 sides to it accomplishes.

[KoaKoi]

sure. sure. just playing devil's advocate. I don't disagree with anybody here.

well, except for maybe Infiniti.... I don't think we're on the same page Infiniti. Barry's post stated:

"often find it amusing when fans go off on every bad Rams draft pick, even second day picks, when those guys don't make it.
...

For those who point out how wise teams like the Colts and Patriots are every draft, and how on draft day the guys they draft are labelled good picks immediately by some, here is some elightening info...."


Seems to me, Barry was trying to straighten out folks who instantly complain about Rams' drafts, by using the Colts and Patriots drafts (who are hailed as the gold std.) to shed some light on the subject. Of course, every team has busts... but I just can't read his post without there being an implied comparison.

but eh... semantics. Again, i think its a valid point.

go rams

[Barry Waller]

My main point was to show why fans should quit acting like every pick the Patriots make must be golden, as in, "They took so and so, which means we should have taken him first, because the guys they pick turn out to be good.

When I did that long ago study, which took hours and hours of research, I found that a first rounder has about a 60% chance of being a starter four years down the line, and about an 85% chance of still being on the roster.

That number drops to about 40% and about 70% for #2 picks.

Then it drops a TON for third and fourth rounders, which are very close, around 25% becoming starters and only about 40% still on rosters.

Fifth through seventh rounders are also very close, about 10% become starters and 20% are still on an NFL roster. There are as many unsigned free agents starting percentage wise as 5th-7th rounders.

So if a team hits on ONE starter in round three or four every four picks, and the rest are busts, they are about average.

[Barry Waller]

<<<Teams that consistantly have good drafts like the Patriots, Colts and Giants do have busts but they also have many players that develope into pro bowlers and solid starters. The Rams don't.>>

These teams do NOT always have good drafts

Look at the Pats 2006 draft below. Maroney has proven to be injury prone and average, and they got a kicker. Other than that - nothing

1 1 21 21 Laurence Maroney RB Minnesota
2 2 4 36 Chad Jackson WR Florida
3 3 22 86 Dave Thomas TE Texas
4 4 9 106 Garrett Mills TE Tulsa
5 4 21 118 Stephen Gostkowski K Memphis
6 5 3 136 Ryan O'Callaghan G California
7 6 22 191 Jeremy Mincey DE Florida
8 6 36 205 Dan Stevenson G Notre Dame
9 6 37 206 Le Kevin Smith DT Nebraska
10 7 21 229 Willie Andrews DB Baylor
Their 2000 draft was saved by one pick, in round 6.
2000 1 2 15 46 Adrian Klemm T Hawaii
2 3 14 76 J.R. Redmond RB Arizona State
3 4 33 127 Greg Robinson-Randall T Michigan State
4 5 12 141 Dave Stachelski TE Boise State
5 5 32 161 Jeff Marriott DT Missouri
6 6 21 187 Antwan Harris DB Virginia
7 6 33 199 Tom Brady QB Michigan
8 6 35 201 David Nugent DT Purdue
9 7 20 226 Casey Tisdale LB New Mexico
10 7 33 239 Patrick Pass RB Georgia

The Giants were saved this 2006 draft by their LATE picks
1 1 32 32 Mathias Kiwanuka DE Boston College
2 2 12 44 Sinorice Moss WR Miami (FL)
3 3 32 96 Gerris Wilkinson LB Georgia Tech
4 4 27 124 Barry Cofield DT Northwestern
5 4 32 129 Guy Whimper T East Carolina
6 5 26 158 Charlie Peprah DB Alabama
7 7 24 232 Gerrick McPhearson DB Maryland
2005 1 2 11 43 Corey Webster DB Louisiana State
2 3 10 74 Justin Tuck DE Notre Dame
3 4 9 110 Brandon Jacobs RB Southern Illinois
4 6 12 186 Eric Moore DE Florida State

Was this 2002 draft for the G-men "great"
1 1 14 14 Jeremy Shockey TE Miami (FL)
2 2 14 46 Tim Carter WR Auburn
3 3 13 78 Jeff Hatch T Pennsylvania
4 5 17 152 Nick Greisen LB Wisconsin
5 6 16 188 Wesley Mallard DB Oregon
6 7 15 226 Daryl Jones WR Miami (FL)
7 7 35 246 Quincy Monk LB North Carolina

Here is another Giants draft 1998
1998 1 1 24 24 Shaun Williams DB UCLA
2 2 25 55 Joe Jurevicius WR Penn State
3 3 9 70 Brian Alford WR Purdue
4 5 24 147 Toby Myles T Jackson State
5 6 24 177 Todd Pollack TE Boston College
6 7 24 213 Ben Fricke C Houston

Here are some poor Colts drafts
2005
2005 1 1 29 29 Marlin Jackson DB Michigan
2 2 28 60 Kelvin Hayden DB Illinois
3 3 28 92 Vincent Burns DE Kentucky
4 4 28 129 Dylan Gandy G Texas Tech
5 4 34 135 Matt Giordano DB California
6 5 12 148 Jonathan Welsh DE Wisconsin
7 5 29 165 Robert Hunt C North Dakota State
8 5 37 173 Tyjuan Hagler LB Cincinnati
9 6 28 202 Dave Rayner K Michigan State
10 7 29 243 Anthony Davis RB Wisconsin

2000

1 1 28 28 Rob Morris LB Brigham Young
2 2 28 59 Marcus Washington DE Auburn
3 3 29 91 David Macklin DB Penn State
4 4 28 122 Josh Williams DT Michigan
5 5 9 138 Matt Johnson G Brigham Young
6 7 29 235 Rob Renes DT Michigan
7 7 32 238 Rodregis Brooks DB Alabama-Birmingham


These teams had some great drafts, but also some clunkers, and some saved only by catching lightning in a bottle with a late pick anyone could have had. Look at drafthistory.com and you can see for yourself how iffy drafts really are, especially after round one.

[Barry Waller]

Also, when looking at past Rams drafts, make note that they traded second round picks for Marshall Faulk, Aeneas Williams, and Kyle Turley. A couple of those deals worked out OK.

[Barry Waller]

Winning is a strange thing sometimes, and one should note that the Rams sucked from 1995-1998, and had bad drafts most of those years, many busts yet they won it all with a non drafted guy at QB, at MLB, at Center, at one guard at defensive tackle etc.

The only first round high picks starting were Kevin Carter, Grant Wisrtom, Orlando Pace, Torry Holt. and Todd Lyght. All were in the top 10 in round one, the product of sucking for so long.

Ike Bruce was a very high #2. So was Dre Bly, who didn't start.

Only 12 players on that 1999 roster, nine of them starters, were drafted by the Rams, and 8 of those on the roster, five starters, were from just two drafts, 1997 and 1998.

You just have to have a couple very good drafts to become good in a hurry, if you get some key guys that are very very good early on draft day.

[TheBritishRam]

Didn't the Patriots cut all of their 2007 draft picks except the 1st and 2nd rounders?

Reading through the rams draft, yes the 2006 draft looks terrible at the moment, but the 2005 draft doesn't look to bad. Ok Barron isn't the force at tackle we all hoped he would be but there are 4 starters from that draft (5 if you include Hedgecock and forget Linehan stupidly got rid off him), to me that was very successful draft. Hopefully the 2008 and 09 drafts will turn out the same way.

[rampower]

Although I do beleave some are etter than other, the draft does have a lot of luck.

I aslo feel that good teams are afforded the luxury of being able to put players in a good positive winning situation, with better players and coaches around them, which will help them realise their potential.

Also having a good squad gives you more freedom to pass on that amazing player with a bad attitude. The freedom to take the best player on board at the time because you dont have 10 glaring needs. The freedom to trade down several times because you dont think anyone is worth the pick, because you know your squad has a chance anyway.
Sucess breeds sucess.

Where I feel we DID do a very bad job was keeping hold of some of the talent we had (Bly, Fletcher, Pickett etc), when we were good and spent a little too much time on players who we knew were busts, when we should have got rid. We should have done a better job of keeping the squad fresh and keeping those who counted.

I cant argue that some people are better talent evaluators than others, or that sometimes taking a QB to play WR might not be the way to go, but the draft has an element of lottery to me.

[Nick]

Look at the Pats 2006 draft below.

My first reaction to your original post was to point out the '06 Patriots draft, even though it seemed like 2005 was your cut-off point.

For a team consistently praised for their drafting, that's one of the worst classes I've seen in a while. When the best thing out of your class is a fourth round kicker, then you had some problems that season.

And this just shows how horrible draft grades are when they're given right after the draft. USA TODAY gave the Pats four out of four stars for this class at the time, and Kiper gave the Pats a B, stating, "New England had a great first day and a good second day."