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Thread: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

  1. #1
    MauiRam's Avatar
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    Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    By David Heeb May 10, 2012

    The offseason brings hope to every team in the NFL. With free agency and the draft, every team gets a chance to fill in a few roster holes and hopefully get some injured players ready to start the new season healthy.

    In April and May, hope springs eternal in the NFL. Right now, everybody is undefeated.

    So today, we all think our team has a chance to make the playoffs. That's what we're supposed to think, because we're fans, right? We are supposed to believe that our struggling right tackle is finally going to be the player we thought he'd be when we used the No. 2 overall pick in the draft to take him. We are supposed to think that this coaching staff, and this new GM, aren't going to make the same mistakes as their predecessors.

    But what about the people who make their money by being objective?

    Today I came across this interesting article where Cantor Gaming has released betting odds for the NFL season. So forget what us fans think right now. For just a minute, let's "put our money where our mouth is" and see what the oddsmakers are saying.

    Week 1: Rams @ Detroit, LOSS

    Week 2: Rams vs. Washington, LOSS

    Week 3: Rams @ Chicago, LOSS

    Week 4: Rams vs. Seattle, LOSS

    Week 5: Rams vs. Arizona, WIN

    Week 6: Rams @ Miami, LOSS

    Week 7: Rams vs. Green Bay, LOSS

    Week 8: Rams vs. New England (game played in London), LOSS

    Week 9: BYE

    Week 10: Rams @ San Francisco, LOSS

    Week 11: Rams @ NY Jets, LOSS

    Week 12: Rams @ Arizona, LOSS

    Week 13: Rams vs. San Francisco, LOSS

    Week 14, Rams @ Buffalo, LOSS

    Week 15, Rams vs. Minnesota, WIN

    Week 16, Rams @ Tampa Bay, LOSS

    Week 17: Because of uncertainty concerning which starters might suit up for the final week of the regular season, Week 17 lines were not available. So I'll call this one, Rams @ Seattle, LOSS.


    So the bad news is, the oddsmakers are saying the Rams are going to go 2-14. The good news, they are also saying the Redskins are going to go 4-12.



    Hey, at least the Rams will have two top-five picks, right?


  2. #2
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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    First... if you wish to repost something from a blog site like Bleacher Report, please label it as a "blog."

    Second, I'll be in Las Vegas next month, and if any sports book sets the over/under for the Rams at 2 wins, I'll put a lot on the over.
    THOLTFAN81 likes this.

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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    Sobering for some. I think 5 or 6 wins is reachable.

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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    It appears that what they are actually saying is that the Rams will be underdogs in 14 out of 16 games. That's a lot different from saying they are projected to go 2-14.

    As an example, if you are expected to win on average 30% of the games for which you are an underdog and 70% of the games for which you are favored you should win 30%*14 + 70%*2 games, or 5.6 games, on average. No legitimate oddsmaker would ever reason by labeling games either "wins" or "losses" but instead by probabilities of winning. Otherwise, the oddsmakers would "predict" that the best team each year go 16-0 during the regular season and win the SB (absent a situation where the best team could be an underdog to another top team due to home field advantage). Similarly, the worst team in the league would be projected to go winless (same caveat as above).

    Football involves luck, so even if we're underdogs in 14 games we'll probably be better than 2-14. Being 2-14 requires not only a bad team but some bad luck as well.
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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    Personally I think...

    We beat Washington because our strong d will give new RGIII trouble.

    We beat Seattle at home.

    We beat Miami because by week six they will be a revolving door of hot mess at qb.

    While I think we probably drop both games to the Packers and Patriots... I think we will play well and come out of the bye week strong. I think we can win 4 or 5 of our last 8 games.

    So I have us going 8 and 8... possibly 9 and 7.

    I know plenty will cal me optimistic but I think we showed brief glimpses of having a really good team last year. Just need more consistence... which I think the Stache will demand.
    THOLTFAN81 likes this.

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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    I'm not sure this gentleman understands how odds work.

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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    Absolutely no effin' way the Rams will be 2-14 or worse this season.

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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    I wonder what the game by game odds were for the 1999 season. You just never know.
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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    First... if you wish to repost something from a blog site like Bleacher Report, please label it as a "blog."

    Second, I'll be in Las Vegas next month, and if any sports book sets the over/under for the Rams at 2 wins, I'll put a lot on the over.
    I posted to stir the pot a little, that's all. When you're in Vegas, let us know what current the odds are if you've time. I'd take that "over" as well.

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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    Quote Originally Posted by r8rh8rmike View Post
    I wonder what the game by game odds were for the 1999 season. You just never know.
    The Rams were 200-1 to win the SB that year.
    Faithful Rams fan since 1968

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    Re: Blog: St. Louis Rams: Oddsmakers Have Rams Going 2-14

    For me:

    2 wins is to low

    5-6 is a reach

    7 to whatever is a dream

    I'm going with 4.....

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