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Thread: Bulger Top QB?

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    SchaeferMan is offline Registered User
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    Bulger Top QB?

    While I have finally accepted Bulger as the man I didn't think anyone outside of Rams Nation had . . .until I read this on ESPN Insider -

    Griese excels long and short
    ESPN Insider
    By KC Joyner
    "The Football Scientist"
    July 12, 2006
    Archive

    Who was the NFL's most accurate passer in 2005? Whenever I bring up the issue of a quarterback's accuracy, I invariably receive a lot of feedback from readers wanting me to clarify what I mean.

    An accurate pass can be described simply as a pass thrown within the receiver's catching frame -- the area where the receiver can reach out and get his hands on the ball. If the ball arrives within this frame, it is ruled an accurate pass. Otherwise, it is ruled an inaccurate pass.

    Another question I am frequently asked is how do I account for passes thrown well over the head of a receiver, as well as passes thrown away or knocked down. I use a similar line of thinking to the catchable pass idea proposed in the TYPCA metric.

    Any pass knocked down or thrown away is removed from the accuracy percentage calculations altogether. I also remove passes attempted when the quarterback is hit just as he throws the ball.

    I do count intentional overthrows on deep passes as pass attempts, but they do not count as inaccurate passes. It is a subjective metric, but I use these rules to clarify the metric as much as possible.

    I use a percentage basis to rank the quarterbacks, with the lowest inaccuracy percentage being the best. The following is a breakdown of the top five quarterbacks in this metric:

    T4. Mark Brunell. Brunell's high accuracy percentage is even more impressive because he was very accurate at all depth levels. Brunell had the eighth-best deep pass accuracy percentage and also ranked in the top five in both the short- and medium-depth levels.

    T4. Matt Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck had the same accuracy percentage as Brunell, but arrived at that number in a completely different way. Hasselbeck's medium and deep pass accuracy rates were average, but his short pass accuracy (91 percent) was phenomenal. The Seahawks' offensive improvement last year was mostly attributed to more consistent play from the receivers, but the quarterback certainly did his part.

    T2. Brian Griese. Griese's accuracy metrics were unusual. He had the second-best short pass accuracy percentage, which is something you would expect from a quarterback in a Jon Gruden offense (Griese has since moved on to Chicago).

    However, extremely accurate short-pass quarterbacks typically are not as accurate on deeper routes. Such was the case with Griese on medium passes, for which his percentage was merely average. But the odd part was that Griese ranked first in deep pass accuracy percentage. Even keeping in mind that he played in only six games last year, that is quite an accomplishment.

    T2. Carson Palmer. Palmer's metrics indicate his passes get better the deeper he throws them. He ranked a mere 12th in short pass accuracy, but made up for it by placing in the top three in both medium and deep pass accuracy.

    1. Marc Bulger. What makes this finding most amazing to me is that Bulger played in an offense that was one of the most vertically inclined in the entire league. Bulger had the fourth-highest percentage of deep passes and the sixth-highest percentage of medium passes, yet was still able to approach the 90 percent mark in the accuracy metric.

    Bulger had the highest medium pass accuracy percentage, the third-best deep pass percentage, and the seventh-best short pass percentage. He is almost never mentioned as one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL, but these metrics offer very convincing proof he belongs in that discussion.

    As for where some of the other big-name quarterbacks ended up, here are the top 15 quarterbacks in this category:

    1. Marc Bulger -- 10.2
    2. Carson Palmer -- 11.2
    2. Brian Griese -- 11.2
    4. Matt Hasselbeck -- 11.8
    4. Mark Brunell -- 11.8
    6. Kelly Holcomb -- 12.3
    7. Brad Johnson -- 12.5
    8. Peyton Manning -- 12.6
    9. Byron Leftwich -- 13.2
    10. Drew Brees -- 13.8
    11. Aaron Brooks -- 13.9
    12. David Carr -- 14.0
    13. Anthony Wright -- 14.4
    14. Chris Simms -- 14.6
    15. Steve McNair -- 15.0


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    Re: Bulger Top QB?

    Thanks for the post Schaeferman and welcome to the Clan. It is good to see Marc Bulger getting some recognition.

    I wonder how long it takes to compile accuracy statistics on each of the QBs. That is a lot of football tape to watch.
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    Re: Bulger Top QB?

    Wow Great Find!! Lets Go Bulger!! Yea Bulger needs to be more recognizable. Hes done great things for this team, but injuries have made his reputations a little bit down. This guy is the best ESPN Writer cause he put Bulger at the top!

    Welcome to the Clan!!

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    Re: Bulger Top QB?

    Well, I would like a detail of the formula. Reason: Anthony Wright? C'mon. That's why basing everything on statistics alone is dangerous. Not knociking Bulger in any shape, form or fashion. I've been a big supporter of his appearance at the Raiders game. It's just that this formula looks a little iffy to me if Chris Simms and Anthony Wright are ahead of these QB's:

    Eli Manning
    Tom Brady
    Drew Bledsoe

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    Re: Bulger Top QB?

    Good to see Bulger up there. On the surface, that list looks pretty odd. Brian Griese and Kelly Holcomb in the top 6? Anthony Wright in the top 15? Why? Well, one issue this does not address is whether the defender can get to the ball as well. Some of these 'accurate' QBs have thrown a lot of interceptions. The other thing we could look at is yards per attempt. Holcomb and Griese had just over 6.5 YPA in 2005, and Wright was under 6.0 YPA. In other words, even if Griese was accurate when he went deep, he must have been hitting the short stuff a lot more often. It's not so hard to be accurate when you're constantly dumping the ball off. Bulger on the other hand had 8.0 YPA, topped only by Peyton Manning and Big Ben, which just makes this achievement more impressive.

    Probably this season, the announcers will harp about how he's supposedly injury prone, but if he stays healthy, he'll get his due.

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    SchaeferMan is offline Registered User
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    Re: Bulger Top QB?

    I can't claim any real understanding of the algorithm this guy uses but ESPN Insider has been publishing random articles with his player ratings. If you need more I think KC Joyner has published a book and created a website. You can probably search for "The Football Scientist."

    ps - I have no affiliation with ESPN or KC Joyner. Just enjoyed a different slant on the QB discussion.

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