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Thread: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

  1. #1
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

    If you believe everything you hear on ESPN, based on the way Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson burst onto the scene last year, they are guaranteed to be among the top QBs for years to come.

    Its almost like we've never seen this sort of thing before.

    Or have we?

    Look at these numbers:

    Name --------Att. Com. % Yards TDs Int. Rating Record/%
    Marc Bulger 138 214 64.5 1,826 14 6 101.5 6-1 (.857)

    Colin Kepernick 136 218 62.4 1,814 10 3 98.3 5-2 (.714)
    Russell Wilson 252 393 64.1 3,118 26 10 100.0 11-5 (.688)

    Seems to me that, in his first year as a starter (taking over, like Kaepernick, in the middle of the season), Marc Bulger had numbers that were as good as Kaepernick's and Wilson's, and he also had a higher winning percentage.

    So, did that mean that Marc Bulger was destined to become a top QB for the next decade?

    Not exactly.

    While Marc had a good career, and managed to make a couple of Pro Bowls. He never approached the passer rating he had in his first year (his next best year he had a rating of 94).

    The point is... sometimes players start their career looking like All-Stars, and remain at that level. Other times, the element of surprise wears off and the stars go out of alignment, and a player never equals that initial burst of success.

    If I were a betting man, I'd say Kaepernick is more likely to sustain his success. He has a strong enough arm to be successful from the pocket (though he'll eventually have to learn that not every pitch is a fastball). Wilson, in my opinion, will probably struggle a bit as teams adjust to the read option style of offense.

    Don't get me wrong... I think both guys can be long-term, quality NFL QBs. But, just as was the case with Marc, you can't always go by first impressions.
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    Fastcat is offline Registered User
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    Bulger's down fall wasn't Bulger. It was the offensive line. Just like when Warner was here.

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    Re: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fastcat View Post
    Bulger's down fall wasn't Bulger. It was the offensive line. Just like when Warner was here.
    Whatever the reason, the point is that the arrow does not always point up. Sometimes, players peak early.

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    Re: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

    Well the new darlings, Wilson and capt. Kep., did take by surprise the NFL. However, after an entire offseason, lets see how the Wonder Twins do, this season, considering most DC have had time to scheme and plan counters for the Read option

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    Re: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

    Its all about the gameplan. Coaches now have film on how they play.
    MauiRam likes this.

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    renrawtruk is offline Registered User
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    Re: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

    I think Bulger may have walked into a little better situation than these guys, although Kaepernick has some pretty good talent around him.

    Time will tell, but clearly our hope is that at least one of these QB's in our division was benefiting by some new schemes that will ultimately not be as successful in the NFL with more film, etc... and/or their own production dropping off in their sophomore slump and even beyond.

    ...and not to mention Ogeltree! (look out Kappy!)

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    Re: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

    I always say this. Give me at least two years of solid production before I'll declare a player "established." I feel the NFL, moreso than other leagues, is prone to "flash in the pan" type players who explode one year, and then falter the next.

    As has been pointed out, most likely it's due to the defenses (or offenses in some cases) adjusting to that player and learning how to stop them. The players that continue to be great are either too talented too stop, or find a new way to produce. Some just keep hitting that brick wall and fade away. We'll see what Kap and Wilson do, but until they light the league on fire for a second year in a row, I'm not going to bow down and declare them the next great QBs of our generation. Everyone said that about Cam Newton...until his second year.
    NJ Ramsfan1 likes this.

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    Re: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and.... Marc Bulger?

    Part of this could be simply the statistical explanation used to expose the fallacy of "the sophomore slump".

    Let's say, for expeiency's sake, that you have eight rookie quarterbacks, all of equal ability, drafted in the same year, and playing for teams of equal ability. All are starters, none get injured.

    Chance alone says that some of those quarterbacks will do better than others. Those quarterbacks will be singled out as being better than the ones who didn't do so well, and marked as stars.

    The next year, some of the "bad" quaterbacks will do better, and some of the "good" quarterbacks, especially the "best" quarterback, will not be able to match his first year numbers. The seemingly bad but improving quarterbacks are ignored, because no one cared about them after their bad year. The quarterback who suffers a statistical drop is said to be in a sophomore slump, or to have "lost his magic", when in fact, he just had an aberrational good year off the bat.

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