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  1. #1
    general counsel's Avatar
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    interesting cap question

    would you rather pay a guy who is 27 coming off a break out year, albeit in a contract year, or a guy who has been steady but not spectacular during his career.

    Its an interesting question and doesnt have a right or wrong answer. The key with pickett is will he improve or at least stay the same, or did he have a breakout contract year, thereby enhancing the risk that once he gets paid he will get fat and regress.

    When we say its tough to judge last years pickett performance because the rest of the defense was so bad, its my view that that type of analysis punishes him for events beyond his control. If we cant draw conclusions about the defense from last year, how do we decide that guys need to be upgraded. I dont think you can say that one guy was lousy and needs to be upgraded and say that we cant credit the guys that did well.

    Pickett certainly doesnt have a history of stardom. We would always like to pay guys who we think are going to improve, which is one of the reasons teams like to pay their own young guys. didnt work out so well with manu of course.

    If you say you wouldnt pay pickett 2 million a year, what do you think you are going to get for 2 million a year in the open market. interesting question.

    To me, probability of performance is critical. I am torn on where i come out on pickett on that. I would like to sign him long term and pay him real money but i admit i dont know exactly how much that is. I think that there is a much stronger argument for not using the tag on him than not paying him long term. The tag has lots of problems, i think you have to take risks somewhere and pickett seems like a good bet to me age and experience wise. not without risk, but i think you will have risk no matter who you sign.

    ramming speed to all

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  2. #2
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    Re: interesting cap question

    If Pickett would play for the 2 to 2.5 million a year range, I'd sign him up and never blink an eye. In a nod to his potential, I'd even do it as a one to two year contract with a nice sized amount of guaranteed money. I'm pausing at his 4+ million asking price. That seems high given what he's accomplished, especially considering all the needs we have on both sides of the ball.

    As to the abstract question, my answer is "it depends." If you have a team with only a few holes and a relatively young roster, you can probably afford the risk. If you have a team with a lot of holes and a relatively old roster, then you have to be careful about taking chances on bad contracts.

  3. #3
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    Re: interesting cap question

    It's very tough to sign anybody right now... but 4 mill is excessive.
    And it looked like such a good day...

  4. #4
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    Re: interesting cap question

    at 2-2.5 million per i say take that risk,but if hes asking 4+million,then we have to think really hard about that,but we may not have much of a choice.

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    Re: interesting cap question

    I think Pickett would have a hard time finding a team that would pay him 4+ mil with all of the cuts taking place. It makes me wonder how an agent can seriously ask for that kind of money for a player that has been inconsistent.

    I think I'm in the wrong business.
    JUST WIN ONE FOR THE FANS


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    Re: interesting cap question

    Unfortunately, as Welker83 so eloquently pointed out in his other thread, the CBA situation muddies the water for now. But, I think resigning Pickett is one of the TOP priorities for the team.

    He has been the "rock" in the middle of a very suspect line. Before you draw a line in the sand of when you're going to be kicking him to the curb, just consider how much worse the line would be if Damione Lewis had been in Pickett's position this year. All of a sudden Pickett looks pretty darn good. Add to that, anybody you bring into replace him is either going to be inferior to Pickett or cost as much or more than Pickett.

    I keep hearing that he's asking $4 Million. Do we know that? Has his agent said that? Maybe they have, I don't know. Regardless, he led the league in tackles at times this year. Give the man his due. He's a known commodity...a solid contributor. Certainly, you negotiate the lowest price you can, but you need to negotiate in good faith. There is probably a number both sides can live with and we get on about it. That's been one of the biggest problems with this organization in the past, they underestimate the value of their own talent, they assume that anyone can be replaced without considering the cost or talent of that replacement, while they bring in unproductive free agents time and again and the team suffers for it.

    I don't know about you, but I'm hoping this change in the regime also bring a change in these practices. Yes, there are only so many cap dollars to go around and sometimes you can't have it all, but you can certainly give your quality players the respect they deserve and at the same time make your team better for it.
    Last edited by viper; -02-24-2006 at 06:48 PM.

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    Re: interesting cap question

    One thing IS for sure. The Rams didn't think he was worth the $5,656,000 that a franchise tag would have fetched. My guess he goes to the highest bidder. Meaning he's gone.

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    Re: interesting cap question

    zyggie thought wistrom wouldn't get much attention either but look what happened...

    DTs, especially good ones, are hard to come by...i guess we, of all fans, should know...i'm sure teams with a cushy cap space may invest $20 mil over 5 yrs for a player like pickett...

    personally, i want georgia to spend that money to keep the good ones that the rams have groomed for the past 5 yrs...

  9. #9
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    Re: interesting cap question

    Some of you are seriously overstating how good Pickett has been for the Rams. He was good last year. Prior to that, he had been inconsistent at best. That's what makes his value so much harder to judge than someone like Wistrom -- did his play last year indicate an increasing trajectory over the next few years? Or, was indicitive of a contract push? No one knows and we only have opinion. Clearly, the Rams think he's good and will be willing to give him a contract but at the same time are uncertain enough that they didn't want to guarantee him a 5+ million dollar contract. If he'd play for the $2 plus range, he'd have been signed a long time ago.

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    rampete is offline Registered User
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    Re: interesting cap question

    Quote Originally Posted by chiguy
    Some of you are seriously overstating how good Pickett has been for the Rams. He was good last year. Prior to that, he had been inconsistent at best. That's what makes his value so much harder to judge than someone like Wistrom -- did his play last year indicate an increasing trajectory over the next few years? Or, was indicitive of a contract push? No one knows and we only have opinion. Clearly, the Rams think he's good and will be willing to give him a contract but at the same time are uncertain enough that they didn't want to guarantee him a 5+ million dollar contract. If he'd play for the $2 plus range, he'd have been signed a long time ago.
    i'm of the camp that believes pickett has played very well the past TWO seasons...in fact, he may've regressed a bit last season over the previous one...

    what does it REALLY matter to us, the fans, how much he makes per year as long as he is a good player? some may argue, or attempt to, that cap space is their PRIMARY concern whenever a player is signed...but if you remember, the rams were UNDER the cap the past two seasons; significantly last season at under $6 mil....

    are we so concerned with numbers that we cringe whenever signing a player is mentioned...let's allow zyggie and his cronies worry about managing georgia's money...

    she owes it to paying fans to field a competitive team...even if it takes a plate off her family's dinner table...

  11. #11
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    Re: interesting cap question

    Whilst it's absolutely true that tying any player up to a long term deal ,cap or no cap, is fraught with risk, if you are taking a considered view it's always quantifiable.

    We aren't shooting in the dark with Pickett. I made the point earlier that whilst it's very laudable that he led the league in tackles I would have expected that to translate into respectable run D which it didn't do. I also pointed out that it's hard to judge anybody with any degree of certainty who might have been involved in our wreckage of a D last season.

    If you then factor in that his performance was a single season peak in a contract year, and that prior to that we had seen very little in terms of statistical production; then the decision to allocate big money to a guy on a unit with lots of holes could be one that you regret at your leisure.

    This isn't punishing him for events outside of his control, it's just the NFL in the age of the cap with cap uncertainty just round the corner. Besides, he has been in control of his performances since the ink on his contract was dry.

    A tag, whichever one you choose to use, is almost like expensive house insurance, a catch all where the opening statement could read "In the event of...". I think the FO would have been much more likely to use it if they had been persuaded that his performance curve was genuinely on the up. They would have taken the $5 mil on the chin, shruged their shoulders and pointed out that talent evaluation is occasionally a crap shoot if it hadn't panned out. A tag would have limited our long term liability.

    If you also the factor in the potential changes in scheme next year then it makes the decision to re-sign even more difficult.

    I think the $4.4 mil was a PD statement, maybe Bernie but I'd have to say I'm not sure. As chi-guy points out however if it was remarkably less than that the odds are he would have been signed.

    I've often been a critic of the antics of our dearly beloved FO, but on this occasion I think there is enough uncertainty about Pickett to justify letting him establish his value on the open market. I think they have played this correctly especially given the uncertainty that awaits us round the corner.

    The choice is then ours...........

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