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  1. #1
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    An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his turn)

    It always sounds like a cliche when people say of a RB, "he gets stronger as the game goes on." But, in Steven Jackson's case, the numbers support this:

    Here are his per carry averages broken down by part of the game (from NFL.com):

    First 10 carries: 4.0
    Carries 11-20: 4.6
    Carries 21-30: 5.1
    Carries 31+: 6.5

    Same pattern when his first half vs. second half performance is considered:

    First half: 4.0
    Second half: 4.9 (including 5.2 in fourth half)

    So, one thing that, despite the selection of Brian Leonard, is not likely to change is Steven Jackson's role as a workhorse back in the running game. Certainly, Leonard will get his share of carries - particularly in games in which the Rams have a lead - to ensure that Jackson is still going strong at the end of the season (though, interestingly, Jackson had his best two games last year in the final two weeks of the season).

    Frankly, I think the area in which Leonard will take the biggest cut into Jackson's touches is in the passing game. Jackson will not catch 90 balls again this year. It would not surprise me if he catches no more than 50. Leonard was an accomplished receiver at Rutgers, and could certainly give Jackson a breather on passeing downs.

    But make no mistake. Steven Jackson needs to get a lot of carries. When the fourth quarter arrives, he's a tired defender's worst nightmare.


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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Does he get stronger or do the defenders get weaker?

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    I'd say a mixture. Jackson and the O-line really looked like they wore down some opposing defensive fronts last year.

    I am really impressed with the 6.5 YPC after 30 carries. Does the man ever get tired?

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    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Quote Originally Posted by MoonJoe View Post
    Does he get stronger or do the defenders get weaker?
    Obviously, nobody literally gets stronger. Its a matter of relativity.

    In the first quarter, SJ and the defense are both at 100%.

    In the fourth quarter, perhaps SJ is still at 80%, but the defense is down to 60%. As a result, Jackson appears to have gotten stronger.

    Of course, its not merely a function of time. Certain plays will cause defenses - particularly DL - to tire more quickly. Certainly, if they are faced with constant smashmouth run blocking and having to tackle a 230 lb. RB, they are likely to tire more quickly than if they are facing a quick passing game.

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Quote Originally Posted by Keenum View Post
    I'd say a mixture. Jackson and the O-line really looked like they wore down some opposing defensive fronts last year.

    I am really impressed with the 6.5 YPC after 30 carries. Does the man ever get tired?
    Bull Dozer! Road Grater!

    The man's a beast!

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    The most impressive game to me was the game against Minnesota. They were supposed to be a Run stopping team, and we ran all over them. Our Offensive Line pushed them around.

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Sometimes avenger is so smart and to the point that he must scare even himself. We really are lucky to have him around this board.

    Its exactly correct to say that its a matter of relativity. As the defense wears down, the big boy is wearing down at a slower rate. The 300 plus pounders are getting more winded at the line and once the big boy gets into the secondary, that is at best a problem for the defense and at worst a nightmare of biblical magnitude since there are very few guys fast enough to catch him and almost no one big enough to get in his way and tackle him head on. We saw the vaunted sean taylor head for the hills rather than try to take on the big boy one of one with the game on the line in the open field.

    I think the critical point here is that when we are way ahead or way behind, get the big boy on the bench. The odds of injury are the same on every play regardless of the score of the game. Thus, i dont want to see him taking any shots when we are up 31-14 with 4 minutes to play.

    ramming speed to all

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Hey, looks like we're gearing up the Rams backfield with Big Boys!

    S. Jackson: 6-2 235
    B. Leonard: 6-1 225
    K-J. Harris: 6-0 230
    B. Lau: 6-0 235
    M. Hedgecock: 6-3 270

    Don't know exactly, of course, the names that make the team this season but our backfield is looking STRONG in more ways than one. Add to that an improved and, hopefully, a healthy OL and the Rams running game just might be on a stampede!

    Yes, if we can manage to outlast the opponents defense, look out...

    I've always thought of this situation discussed in previous posts, i.e., the fact that a certain RB "gets stronger as the game goes on" -- the cliche that AV referred to -- in the same light that defenses often are said to wear down because "they've been on the field too long", pushed around and so forth. Plain tired. Well, hasn't the OL been there just the same amount of time (usually with fewer rotation changes than defensive players get)?

    Still, I agree that our main man, Jax, does seem to have the perfect size and the right stamina to get to the latter parts of the 4th qtr. in better and stronger shape than the average RB and than most D players. Rams offensive coaches will surely continue to take care of him and now with Leonard to help, this may get uglier for the guys on the other side of the ball.

    :r LET'S DO IT! GO RAMS!
    Last edited by RealRam; -05-23-2007 at 04:30 PM. Reason: Typing

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    In the fourth quarter, perhaps SJ is still at 80%, but the defense is down to 60%. As a result, Jackson appears to have gotten stronger.
    With BL we can now see SJ at 87% in the fourth, so SJ will put up even better numbers against a weaker defense.
    Last edited by Rambos; -05-24-2007 at 11:58 AM.

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    With BL we can now see SJ at 87% in the forth, so SJ will put up even better numbers against a weaker defense.
    As the Fonz used to say, "Exactamundo!"

    Note: for some of our younger readers, the Fonz was a character on "Happy Days." Look it up on Wikipedia!

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    What the real concern is here is the what Football Outsiders calls "the curse of the 370 carries" (link below). "The 370-carry theory is generally summarized as follows: A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/200...-analysis/236/

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Quote Originally Posted by max View Post
    What the real concern is here is the what Football Outsiders calls "the curse of the 370 carries" (link below). "The 370-carry theory is generally summarized as follows: A running back with 370 or more carries during the regular season will usually suffer either a major injury or loss of effectiveness the following year, unless he is named Eric Dickerson.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/200...-analysis/236/
    Fortunately, SJack won't have to face that. He had 346 carries last year, with his back up getting less than 3 carries a game. Hopefully, Leonard gets at least that so SJ doesn't have to get anywhere near 370. Personally, I'd like to see him between 300 and 320.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

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    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    I wouldn't say he's getting "warmed up" more through out the game, I just think its this sort of groove that slowly builds up with Jackson, and with most RBs, its just the opposite. It is more of a slow build up of excellence when it comes to Jackson, while most RBs lose that excellence throughout the duration of the game. Jackson is a rare find, he truly is. The size, the strength, the willpower, determination, and the non-stop motor. We're really lucky to have him, and he IS truly a worthy successor to HOFer Faulk.


    Always and Forever a fan of the St. Louis Rams

  14. #14
    z.nrd Guest

    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Carries 31+ = 6.5

    You can go ahead and forget about that, then.

    There is no way on earth Linehan would willingly run SJ 496 times a season.

    IE. 16 game x 31 attempts (at least).

    Heck last year he had 346 attempts rushing, and that was one of the highest in the league (it's 3rd behind L.Johnson with 416 & Tomlinson with 348).

    That is, SJ rushed on average 21.6 or so times a game last year, and both Linehan and Jackson said that was too many.

    Heck, Tomlinson is arguably the best back in the league, and even playing behind a stellar OL and with a rookie qb (both things being incentives to run the ball), they still gave Turner 5 carries a game on average.

    We'll see plenty of Leonard.

  15. #15
    The Shredder Guest

    Re: An Interesting Steven Jackson Stat (or...why Brian Leonard may have to wait his t

    Brian Leonard will be a FB, and more than likely will take some carries away from Jackson. He will probably be in more on passing situations.

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