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Thread: Let's talk math

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    Nick_Weasel's Avatar
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    Let's talk math

    Out of curiosity I ran some Monte Carlo simulations to see how big of a week this is in mathematical terms. Assuming that everybody has a 50% chance of winning every game from here on out (obviously not true!) then here are the odds of us winning the division under various scenarios for this week. This is a simplified version where I didn't take into account tie-breakers and division games later in the year. And of course the 50% win rate for every team is obviously a leap. I might incorporate changes to fix those issues later if I have some time. For anybody who cares, I ran each scenario 10,000 times in Excel. With all that being said, here are the numbers:

    Currently: 40%
    We win, Arizona wins: 54%
    We win, Seattle wins: 46%
    We lose, Arizon wins: 30%
    We lose, Seattle wins: 25%

    Pretty big week, indeed!


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    Re: Let's talk math

    Math make brain hurt. Me want smash!

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    Re: Let's talk math

    It's like the OP is trying to communicate with us!

    In all seriousness though, I have no idea what any of that means. I just know I want the Rams to win.

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    Re: Let's talk math

    Ummm...excuse me...but when I joined this site, I was told there wouldn't be any math.
    That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!!

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    Re: Let's talk math

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_Weasel View Post
    Out of curiosity I ran some Monte Carlo simulations to see how big of a week this is in mathematical terms. Assuming that everybody has a 50% chance of winning every game from here on out (obviously not true!) then here are the odds of us winning the division under various scenarios for this week. This is a simplified version where I didn't take into account tie-breakers and division games later in the year. And of course the 50% win rate for every team is obviously a leap. I might incorporate changes to fix those issues later if I have some time. For anybody who cares, I ran each scenario 10,000 times in Excel. With all that being said, here are the numbers:

    Currently: 40%
    We win, Arizona wins: 54%
    We win, Seattle wins: 46%
    We lose, Arizon wins: 30%
    We lose, Seattle wins: 25%

    Pretty big week, indeed!
    Hey can this program tell me what chance I have of getting a date before we win the division?

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    Re: Let's talk math

    LOL sorry guys! Basically it says if you flipped a coin for every game what the odds of the Rams winning the division would be. Here's what you can take from the numbers (as long as you take them with a grain of salt)...

    - If everything goes our way on Sunday, we're about twice as likely to make the playoffs as if everything goes against us.
    - No matter what happens on Sunday, we're in the playoff picture but far from a sure thing. This week alone is not going to decide our destiny, so let's temper our reactions a bit no matter what happens - we're still going to have 7 games left.
    Last edited by Nick_Weasel; -11-11-2010 at 01:46 PM.

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    Re: Let's talk math

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambunctious View Post
    Hey can this program tell me what chance I have of getting a date before we win the division?
    I see that you're in Kentucky. Would you like your date to have all her teeth? Just kidding!

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    Re: Let's talk math

    Here is how AccuScore sees it:

    CHANCE OF WINNING NFC WEST
    ARIZONA CARDINALS 20.7%
    SAN FRANCISCO WHINERS 21.0%
    SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 27.2%
    ST. LOUIS RAMS 31.1%
    LA RAMMER

    It's Jim not Chris
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HNgqQVHI_8

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