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  1. #1
    general counsel's Avatar
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    pickett only had one good year......

    I want to lay out some stats on pickett in response to a lot of the "he only had one good year so it was ok to let him go" and "what did he do for green bay anyway" crowd.

    He only had one good year? At the time we let him go, pickett, who was 27 and had 6 years of experience, had 238 career tackles over his six years. He had missed zero games with injuries, playing in 11 in his rookie year and 16 per year after that. In the same period, shaun rogers, a guy we passed on to take pickett, had 294 tackles and a couple of pro bowls i believe. Rogers also had more sacks than pickett by a wide margain (19-6). Note however that in 2005, picketts free agent year, he had 65 tackles while rogers had 39. Also note that in 2006, picketts first year in green bay, he had 64 tackles (so much for the one year wonder argument) and rogers had 20, missing most of the season with injury while pickett again played all 16 games. After 7 years for both of them, through 2006, pickett has 302 career tackles while rogers has 314. Over the last two years, pickett has 129 tackles while rogers has 59. Which guy would you rather have right now?

    Look at the great and sainted tommie harris, who everyone seems to think is so fantastic. 43 tackles as a starter as a rookie, great rookie year, followed by 32 tackles in his second year and 28 last year in 12 games.

    Lets talk kris jenkins. Do you know how many times jenkins has had 64 tackles in a season (which pickett has now done in back to back years)? The answer is NONE. Career high for jenkins is 45 tackles. He has played four full seasons in his seven years in the league (unlike 7 for pickett) and he has broken 40 tackles three times.

    Am i saying that pickett is better than harris right now? I dont know, but i sure think that right now he looks better than rogers and jenkisn. I know that there is more to measuring the effectiveness of a defensive tackle than tackle stats, but in picketts case, the numbers dont lie. Pickett is not the pass rushing threat that harris is or that jenkins was earlier in this career, but from the rams perspective, when we let him walk we were already desparate for run defense.

    The issue isnt whether he is the best player at his position in the league, but rather what in the world were the rams thinking about when they let him go for a 4.5 million signing bonus and well under 10 million in guaranteed money to put all of their eggs in the kennedy basket.

    Pickett was drafted after his junior year. He was young. He matured. He has been healthy and consistent and improved steadily. Was the contract year a breakout year? Sure it was, but he was also physically mature and experienced at age 26. IN short, taking pickett where we took him (at the end of round 1) was an EXCELLENT draft pick. The bust was in letting him go just as he was entering his prime. His consistency last year in green bay just proves the point even further. He is a legitimate run stuffing defensive tackle and an excellent one at that. He is NOT an average defensive tackle and i would love anyone to refute this with actual numbers, especially when you take into account his age and the consistency of his performance.

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  2. #2
    helorm341 Guest

    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    Where the heck do you get your stats at? Pickett never had 65 tackles

    I never thought he was that bad really, and I don't think kris jenkins is that great either. But Pickett isn't as good as you're amking him out to be
    Last edited by helorm341; -06-18-2007 at 10:45 AM.

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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    go look on nfl.com is where i get my stats. Two years in a row. I think your comment "no way did pickett ever have 65 tackles" is flat out wrong, according to nfl.com. Look under the player index, i didnt make it up.

    The entire purpose of my post was to hit the group up with facts, the facts according to nfl.com, rather than relying on people on this boards perspective and perception.

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    laram0's Avatar
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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    Quote Originally Posted by helorm341 View Post
    Where the heck do you get your stats at? Pickett never had 65 tackles

    I never thought he was that bad really, and I don't think kris jenkins is that great either. But Pickett isn't as good as you're amking him out to be
    2001- 19 tackles
    2002- 67 tackles
    2003- 42 tackles
    2004- 45 tackles
    2005- 65 tackles
    2006- 64 tackles

    Stats by NFL.COM

    FYI

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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    It's an interesting point that Pickett has put back to back strong seasons together. Being honest I was never sold on him completely, but when he went I realized what we where missing. If we had of replaced him with a top quality alternative I don't think many people would have complained. But to let him walk and not offer what Green Bay did and not have a replacement was a bad move by the FO. To believe that Kennedy would suddenly up his game was a lack of foresight..

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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    A cornerstone of my point regarding pickett is and has always been threefold

    1) He is a LOT better than people give him credit for.
    2) He was 100x better than anything else we had and
    3) This was not a break the bank or kill the cap kind of london fletcher or dre bly like situation where management felt that we couldnt match because the other team simply overpaid by too much money.

    By the way, for those that dont think pickett is so good, go ahead and name me how many defensive tackles you think are better than him and when you do that, just go ahead and check out the stats on nfl.com and at least compare the stats, rather than relying just on reputation or personal observation. Again, i am not saying he is the best guy in the league, but i will tell you that he is very consistent, healthy and the only guys that are better than him are true superstars. Personally, i think he is a pro bowl caliber guy. I would love to see some stats on tackles for losses. In 2005 with the rams, pickett led the nfc and i believe the nfl in that category, which shows he is getting real penetration in the run game.

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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    Grease was a big loss. He is a top line DT. Of additional interest in his tackles stats is that 33 were solo. 31 assists indicates a motor to me, someone who works in pursuit.

    By comparison, Williams MIN had 37 solo and only 7 assists, and he is widely regarded as a very fine DT. Jamal Williams DT for San Diego had 49 solo's and 20 assists in '05, but only 40 & 13 the previous year, and I'd say he's a pretty decent run stuffer also.

    In '05 for the Rams, of Picketts 65 tackles, 47 were solo, 18 assists and 11 were for a loss. Pretty remarkable really.

    Those assists by Picket are pretty indicative of an active player in my opinion. They're closer to what you'd expect of a linebacker. Alone, they'd be specious, but combined with very high solo numbers by a DT, I'd say the Rams blew it.
    Semper Fi!

  8. #8
    Drew Guest

    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    I liked Pickett from more or less day one,he really did get clumped together with the other 1st round picks in the early `00`s as being just as bad as them but totally unfairly...some people just look at the sack count he got which for a NT is par and oh well if our run D sucks it gotta be because of the NT,its a shame he`s gone,but its not the first time we let go of someone we shouldn`t have...im guessing it wont be the last!


    hmmm... *wonders who the next underated player on our D that we let go prematurely* my guess is Bartell!

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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    A cornerstone of my point regarding pickett is and has always been threefold

    1) He is a LOT better than people give him credit for.
    2) He was 100x better than anything else we had and
    3) This was not a break the bank or kill the cap kind of london fletcher or dre bly like situation where management felt that we couldnt match because the other team simply overpaid by too much money.

    By the way, for those that dont think pickett is so good, go ahead and name me how many defensive tackles you think are better than him and when you do that, just go ahead and check out the stats on nfl.com and at least compare the stats, rather than relying just on reputation or personal observation. Again, i am not saying he is the best guy in the league, but i will tell you that he is very consistent, healthy and the only guys that are better than him are true superstars. Personally, i think he is a pro bowl caliber guy. I would love to see some stats on tackles for losses. In 2005 with the rams, pickett led the nfc and i believe the nfl in that category, which shows he is getting real penetration in the run game.

    ramming speed to all

    general counsel
    In hindsight, Pickett was sort of like the stopper in a bathtub. Insignificant when you glance at it, but when its gone -- everything goes down the drain. Letting Ryan go was definitely a big mistake -- particularly when it wouldn't have broken the bank to keep him ...

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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    When Pickett left, he wanted to leave. He wasn't going to sign with the Rams. So we had no choice in whether he stayed or not. He was a free agent.

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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    Let me put it another way. Is there anyone that wouldnt have given up a #2 pick on draft day for pickett? Is there anyone on this board that believes that brian leonard (who i like a lot) is going to have as much impact on this team as ryan pickett would. For that matter, anyone that thinks that carriker is going to be as good as pickett this year has been spending a lot of time drinking the kool aid. I like carriker a lot and i think that he will do well, but he has a long way to go over a long period of time before he is as established and proven as pickett.

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  12. #12
    RamOfDenmark Guest

    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    I've always strongly agreed that we should have kept Pickett. He may not have had a lot of sacks but those tackles for a loss in the running game are almost as important, especially with our run defense - a tackle for loss on 1st down or 2nd and short could force a pass where there would have otherwise been a run, and I think we can all agree that it works to our advantage to force the pass as much as possible with our defense. All those other tackles he had weren't 10 yards downfield all of them either, I would love to see a breakdown of how many of his tackles were in the 1-2 yard region, how many for 3-4 yards and so on, my guess is the majority of his tackles were within a few yards of the line of scrimmage as is usually the case for DT's, 60+ tackles close to the line is a heck of a difference over a season. I would have loved to see Pickett and Carriker teaming up in the middle, my confidence in Glover is at a VERY low point, he did not play well last year, and another year can only have worn him down more, I expect him to get showed around away from the play a lot this year (again) - he seems more a name than a player to me at this point. I wonder who is responsible for letting Pickett walk, was it the football guys (coaches) or was it financially motivated (i.e Zygmunt etc. )? Either way, it is clear it was a mistake that we couldn't afford to make.

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    general counsel's Avatar
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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    we refused to match green bays offer. Pickett said at the time he wanted to stay. We let him walk over less than a million dollar in guaranteed money over the course of the contract. It is not accurate to say that "he wasnt going to stay." why should he stay when someone else pays him more money? There is no reason to believe that he wouldnt have stayed if we matched green bay even though we clearly didnt make an effort to sign him long term before he hit the market, which is what we should have done under the circumstances. The fact that we let him become a free agent never made any sense to me anyway. It should have been a priority to lock him up.

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  14. #14
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    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    If any of you are fans of Dr. Z on SI.com, you'll know this argument well. Tackles are a fake stat. Solos are one thing, where it was a one tackler play. Assist tackles, however, are a stat kept by the home team at each game and then given to the officials and/or the NFL, and thusly, are less than concrete.

    The stats to look at when comparing defensive tackles and specifically nose tackles are his tackles for loss, the team's tackles for loss(look at the MLB especially) and the total yards given up on the ground. With the TFL, you can reason that they were mainly where it was a gut run that he collapsed the blocker and got the runner too, perfection for a NT. The team's TFL show that he was able to shut down the blockers and allow the linebackers and other teammates to get to the ball and shut down the run. Lastly, the stat that runs it all, how much the run defense he headed up allowed.

    That said, did we do better or worse without Pickett? Obviously worse, at least in the yardage stat. The problem that I got from Kennedy is that he was too focused on stats, just like we have been in this thread. All of those great run stuffers don't have "good" stats because they open the holes for other people. I hope that Carriker has horrible stats if it means we rise to top ten stuffing the run. Carriker will be a good nose because he's already shown and said that he doesn't care about personal stats, but what's good for the team.

  15. #15
    z.nrd Guest

    Re: pickett only had one good year......

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    A a break the bank or kill the cap kind of london fletcher or dre bly like situation
    Neither was London Fletcher a break the bank or kill the cap kind of situation. Not unless you think Buffalo's offer to LF broke their bank---it was a 5 year, 17 million deal with a 4 million signing bonus. That averages to 3.4 million a year. The Rams offered him a deal worth about 2 million a year; he wanted (and obviously got) 3 million.

    But it was even better, capwise, than that. Fletcher's salary in Buffalo for the first year was 525,000. That would have made his cap hit for 2002 1.325 million. That was affordable.

    He was signable. The Rams had the cap space. In fact they probably should have extended him a year early. He was a restricted free agent the year before and they basically kept him on a one year deal for 1.5 million; ... better to have extended him then.

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