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Thread: Pro Bowl Breakdown
-12-31-2010 #1thickandthin Guest
Pro Bowl Breakdown
I am making this post, because of the reaction some ClanRammers had when they found out that we just had Steven Jackson making the Pro Bowl. Now, I love the Rams as much as anyone, but if I'm being an unbiased viewer, then I should be happy that even Jackson got in. Because the Rams deserved zero. I know this won't go over very well, but I thought it was necessary.
Deserved is a strong word I guess. If Fred Robbins or Donnie Jones got in, nobody would complain like how Jay Ratliff of the Cowboys got in. I should say that they weren't the second or third best of their position going by stats. Now don't take this as too much of an insult to the Rams. They have above average players at QB, RB, LT, C, DT, DE, MLB, CB, and S, but none of them are the best. Hell, some of them are even "elite." They just didn't perform the best of anybody in the league. I will attempt to convince you by analyzing the positions (with more effort put on what appeared at first glance to be snubs).
Actual Pro Bowlers - Michael Vick (3,018 passing yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs, 62.6% CP; 676 rushing yards, 6.8 YPC); Matt Ryan (3,469 passing yards, 26 TDs, 9 INTs, 62.2%); Drew Brees (4,424 passing yards, 32 TDs, 21 INTs, 68.7%)
Rams player - Sam Bradford (3,357 passing yards, 18 TDs, 14 INTs, 60.5% CP)
I assume no complaints here, but I might as well point out the obvious. Bradford had less passing yards than both Brees and Ryan while accumulating less total yards than Vick. He also had a worse completion percentage than all three and a worse TD-INT ratio. Bradford is an elite rookie, but a mediocre quarterback in the grand scheme.
Actual Pro Bowlers - Michael Turner (1,304 rushing yards, 4.1 YPC, 11 TDs); Adrian Peterson (1,267 rushing yards, 4.7 YPC, 12 TDs); Steven Jackson (1,196 rushing yards, 3.6 YPC, 6 TDs)
Rams player - Jackson
Well, if you paid attention to the stats, Jackson is noticeably worse than the other two. After last season, I put little stock in touchdowns so that's not what got me. It's the YPC. Really how else can you judge a running back? Not by yards, because that is dependent on carries.
I'd put LeSean McCoy (5.2 YPC), Ahmad Bradshaw (4.6 YPC), and Matt Forte (4.4 YPC) ahead of him. Jackson would be the sixth choice for me. My only requirements would be that the back has to reach 1,000 yards. McCoy did it despite just 207 carries. That's pretty incredible. Bradshaw is about 100 yards off Jackson despite 60 less carries. And Forte will get the necessary yards in Week 17 with a much better YPC.
Actual Pro Bowlers - Roddy White (109 receptions, 1,327 yards, 12.2 YPC, 9 TDs); Calvin Johnson (77 receptions, 1,120, 14.5 YPC, 12 TDs), DeSean Jackson (47 receptions, 1,065 yards, 22.5 YPC, 6 TDs); Greg Jennings (72 receptions, 1,168 yards, 16.5 YPC, 12 TDs)
Rams players - Danny Amendola (83 receptions, 680 yards, 8.2 YPC, 3 TDs); Brandon Gibson (50 receptions, 590 yards, 11.8 YPC, 2 TDs)
I really only felt like putting the two receivers with over 500 yards. Let's face it. Our receivers suck. Our top receiver has 8.2 YPC and 2 TDs. Wow. All of the Rams receivers are considerably worse than the Pro Bowlers. Just look at the stats. They tell the story pretty well.
Actual Pro Bowlers - Jason Witten (90 receptions, 956 yards, 10.6 YPC, 8 TDs); Tony Gonzalez (64 receptions, 603 yards, 9.4 YPC, 5 TDs)
Rams players - Daniel Fells (38 receptions, 352 yards, 9.3 YPC, 2 TDs)
I am surprised at how little stats Mike Hoomanawanui has with only 13 receptions. Bajema is a blocking TE (they never do get their due), and Darcy Johnson is not good. Fendi Onobun barely played. Fells is the only guy with half-way decent stats. They do not compare. Again, just look at the stats.
Alright instead of naming the players and their stats, I'll just say why the Rams offensive lineman don't deserve to be in there. For one, the Rams are awful at run blocking. To be in the Pro Bowl, you have to be good at both pass blocking and run blocking. They rank 27th among teams with an an Adjusted Line yard of 3.58 up the middle. That pretty much excludes Jason Brown and the two "guards." Jason Smith has committed a few too many false start penalties for my liking and hasn't been up to par in all 15 games. Rodger Saffold, on the left side, has been pretty good most of the time, but he hasn't been doing good on run blocking either with the Rams having an Adjusted Line Yard of 3.85 off the left tackle.
Here, I'd say we have one above average lineman, two average lineman, and two awful lineman. Can you guess who is who?
Actual Pro Bowlers - John Abraham (38 tackles, 13.0 sacks, 2 FF, INT); Justin Tuck (75 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 6 FF); Julius Peppers (50 tackles, 8.0 sacks, 3 FF, 2 INTs)
Rams players - Chris Long (28 tackles, 8.5 sacks, 3 FF); James Hall (48 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 6 FF)
Finally, I get to do what I set out to do with this post. Well, this is interesting how closely our defensive ends match up statistically. Tuck, no doubt about it, deserves to be in easily. He had 11.5 sacks, SIX forced fumbles, and 75 tackles. Abraham does as well with 13 sacks. He also has an interception which changes the game much more than a sack. Peppers has two interceptions to go with eight sacks and three forced fumbles.
Now, Long has many quarterback pressures but doesn't come close to equaling the other greats. How did he only have 28 tackles? That alone is amazing to me. That's roughly 2 tackles a game. Hall, on the other hand, has a reasonable case. He has the third most tackles of the five, the third most sacks of the five, and tied for first in forced fumbles. I have a hard time making a case against him. Since Tuck has better stats in all and Abraham has too many sacks to ignore, let's focus on Hall vs. Peppers.
I think it comes down to two things. 1) James Hall wasn't the targeted player on his team. Chris Long got more attention than he did. Peppers unquestionably was the main threat on his team and a known commodity to disrupt the game. 2) Peppers faced better competition - his stats would be better if he got to face the Seahawks, *****, and Cardinals twice a year. I'm not sure you guys would dispute either of those things. Plus Peppers had his stats when they mattered most - the 2nd half of the year. Compare their last eight games:
1st 7 games: 23 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 3 FF
Last eight games: 25 tackles, 4.0 sacks, 3 FF
1st 7 games: 11 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 FF
Last eight games: 34 tackles, 6 sacks, FF
One more thing to remember is Peppers was still learning the defense in the beginning of the year. It's clear he figured it out in the second. Peppers should be over Hall.
Actual Pro Bowl Players - Nkadamong Suh (60 tackles, 9 sacks, FF, INT), Jay Ratliff (29 tackles, 3.5 sacks), Justin Smith (60 tackles, 5.5 sacks)
Rams players - Fred Robbins (26 tackles, 6.0 sacks, FF, 7 pass deflections)
Here is another great one. First of all, let me say that Suh is most definitely the best. He has the most tackles, most sacks and an interception to boot. If there was just a plain rookie of the year instead of offensive and defensive, I'd be hard-pressed not to give it to Suh because he is so clearly the best at his position whereas Sam is not even close to the best.
Now, Ratliff doesn't belong. Smith and Robbins have roughly the same stats. I'll get to them two in a minute. But first there is one clear player who most definitely was better than both Smith and Robbins (along with Ratliff of course). Israel Idonije had 47 tackles, 8 sacks, 3 pass deflections, and three forced fumbles. Robbins has more pass deflections but less sacks, tackles, and forced fumbles. He should have been in. Now onto Smith and Robbins.
My biggest problem is that Robbins randomly didn't show up in some games. For instance, he failed to record a tackle three times while Smith failed just once. Robbins had a combined three tackles, zero sacks, and two pass deflections in his six worst games. In Smith's worst six games, he had 13 tackles with one game of zero tackles and one of just one tackle. Every other game, unbelievably, he had at least two tackles.
Robbins "deserved" to be in. But he wasn't really snubbed. Smith and Robbins had about the same overall impact in different ways. So I have trouble saying he should have gotten in over Smith. Idonije should have gotten in over Ratliff though. Robbins perhaps should have went in as the only Rams player (because the ***** have two players). My main point is that Robbins didn't really get snubbed if you look at it from the point of view that Idonije DID get snubbed (cause he was better than all but Suh) and Robbins and Smith had the same impact and were a toss-up.
Actual Pro-Bowlers - Patrick Willis (128 tackles, 6 sacks, 2 FF, 5 PDs); Brian Urlacher (120 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 FF, INT, 3 PDs)
Rams player - James Lauranitis (105 tackles, 3 sacks, INT, 3 PDs)
The stats again say it all. At this point, it's not really close. Willis is obviously better in many facets of his game than Lauranitis. That's not really a knock on Lauranitis. Willis is simply a beast and the best in his class. Lauranitis is getting there. Urlacher has more tackles, more sacks, and more forced fumbles. The tackles were even there for Lauranitis. The fact that the Rams OLBs are not good would lead you to believe he would get more tackles as well. There's not really a case here to be honest.
Actual Pro Bowlers - Clay Matthews (58 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 2 FF, INT, 4 PDs); DeMarcus Ware (61 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 2 FF, PD); Lance Briggs (80 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 FF, 2 INT, 7 PDs)
Rams players - does not compute
I don't really feel like putting forth a lot of effort on this one. You already know the answer and I'm sure not showing you the Rams' stats would actually make your day better. I mean that in the sense that if I showed you - well, your day would get worse. So next position.
Actual Pro Bowlers - Ashante Samuel (26 tackles, 7 INTs, 14 PDs); Charles Woodson (86 tackles, sack, 5 FF, 2 INTs, 10 PDs); DeAngelo Hall (89 tackles, 2 FF, 6 INTs, 14 PDs)
Rams players - Ron Bartell (54 tackles, 10 PDs); Bradley Fletcher (71 tackles, 4 INTs, 11 PDs)
Well, Fletcher has surpassed Bartell as the team's best corner. Bartell is not even really that close. Samuel has a low tackle total, but that might be a good thing. There's a reason why he has seven interceptions and 14 pass deflections. Woodson has five forced fumbles, two interceptions (of course one was returned for a TD), and ten pass deflections. Woodson's five forced fumbles and sack lead me to believe his 86 tackles are more due to running around and not due to giving up a catch. Hall has six interceptions and 14 pass deflections right up there with Samuel. I do not know why he has 89 tackles though.
Fletcher is very close, but much like Lauranitis, he's not quite upper-echelon yet.
Actual Pro Bowlers - Nick Collins (67 tackles, 3 INTs, 11 PDs); Antrel Rolle (82 tackles, 0.5 sacks, FF, INT, 4 PDs); Adrian Wilson (84 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 INTs, 7 PDs)
Rams players - O.J. Atogwe (71 tackles, 3 INTs, 2 FF, 9 PDs); Craig Dahl (89 tackles, FF, 2 INTs, 6 PDs)
You got me now right? Not quite. First of all, OJ has to be compared to free safeties and Dahl to the strong safeties. Wilson is the lone free safety. Rolle and Collins are strong safeties. Dahl actually has better stats than Antrel Rolle. Nobody is calling him out to be in the Pro Bowl though? That's weird and kind of a warning sign maybe for why he shouldn't.
Bernard Pollard, strong safety of the Texans, seems to accumulate more stats than either. He has 111 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, and five pass deflections. A forced fumble and an interception are close to the same. You should recover a forced fumble 50% of the time so 2 INTs and a forced fumble is very slightly better. However, it is hard to judge safeties. I don't think Pro Bowl player when I think of Dahl's 2010 season. I'd again put him on the "Lauranitis" train right now as slightly worse than the best. Of course Dahl is no Antrel Rolle either.
Atogwe probably should have gotten in over Rolle. They are close in that stats so I can't say he got ripped off. He was clearly down from his normal self (Atogwe). Watching Atogwe, it's hard for me to argue Pro Bowl for him. You can't go completely off stats.
Actual Pro Bowler - David Akers (30-36, 83.3%; 46-46 XP)
Rams player - Josh Brown (31-37, 83.8%; 26-27 XP)
Well, if it makes Rams players any more sympathetic towards Josh Brown, Akers did nearly as "bad" as he did. Of course, Brown got his blocked and ended up missing more easy ones than Akers. Do you punish Brown for that? I don't know. I'm not going to search kickers that deserved it though because I'm sure I'll find one who kicked better than 83.8% and this fanpost is way longer than I thought it would be. Brown doesn't deserve to be in Pro Bowl I think most would agree.
Actual Pro Bowler - Mat McBriar (57 punts, 48.4 Avg, 42.1 Net, 35.1% inside 20)
Rams Player - Donnie Jones (85 punts, 45.6 Avg, 39.9 Net, 35.3% inside 20)
As much as it pains me to say this, Jones overall didn't have an overly obvious Pro Bowl season. He placed fourth overall in punts, fourth in average punt distance, and second in net punt yards and in punts made inside the 20. Lee of the ***** did have a better punting distance with more punts inside the 20 (percentage-wise), and didn't play in a dome in half of his games. Jones is right up there, but perhaps not the very best
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
Great post, and it puts solid stats behind why RAMS players didn't get selected.
The problem with stats is they can be manipulated to say whatever the presenter wants to convey. Also, stats don't tell the whole story. I am not calling you out as a RAMS hater. Anyone that follows the RAMS here, after their recent history, should be held in high esteem as a RAMS fan.
Take RB. I would be willing to bet that the RBs you mentioned as being better than SJax wouldn't be able to do much better than SJax did behind his OL.
How about WR. If the longest pass the QB will throw to a WR is 5 yards, he would have to be very special to maintain 10+ YPC. So the WR is impacted by the OC's play calls, the OL blocking for the QB, and the QB's ability to see a WR beyond the checkdown.
I won't break down every position, but needless to say, the highest quality players won't always have the best stats due to the team they play on. Danny Ammendola is, IMO, a prime example of this. He doesn't have the WR stats as you point out, yet he has the most all purpose yards this year. All purpose yards is a stat that is almost always a RB that is a good checkdown receiver. Put Danny on a team that throws more long balls, and I bet he has the stats that puts him in the Probowl.
-12-31-2010 #3Registered User
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Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
^ agreed poster changes arguments to suit his statements. Stats say it all in some, but in others they don't tell the whole story. Which is it?
It's safe to say that to defend the Pro-Bowl selections is futile as players are always snubbed, and there are plenty deserving. It helps to be on a high-profile team, which the Rams are not.
I think the poster was reaching pretty hard to justify something that is far from perfect.
-12-31-2010 #4thickandthin Guest
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
I put the stats in there so that if you look at from an unbiased view you would say to yourself well (insert Pro-Bowl selected player's name here) has better stats than (insert Ram's player here) so he must be better.
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
I disagree with your statements about Jackson. You put a huge emphasis on YPC, and Jackson's isn't as high as guys like Forte et. al because teams can't and don't stack against them like they do Jackson.
Jackson has been the key target of every team all season, and despite a fair amount of success in stopping him, Jackson still piled up enough yards to be 9th in the NFL and 3rd in the NFC. Which means despite teams largely ignoring the passing game to stack against and stop Jackson, he still piles up yards. That's impressive. You can't tell me you could place Forte, McCoy (For goodness sake, he has Jackson and Maclin and Vick making teams forget about him) and Bradshaw on the Rams with teams stacking up to stop them, and they'd still produce those YPC or get anywhere close to Jackson's yards total.
What Jackson has done with what has been thrown at him is impressive. He was targeted as the only real threat on the Rams, and still wound up among the league leaders. That's what Pro Bowl players do. None of Forte, Bradshaw, or McCoy can say they were the focal point of the offense or stacked against.
Also Jackson did it with a torn (Mild, strain is a tear) groin and broken pinky. He's a warrior, and he's among the league leaders despite the odds being stacked against him. I don't see how you say a stat like YPC should be the determining factor.
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
However no one can say the players that were selected didn't deserve it. The only thing that bugs me is 4 patriot defenders making the pro bowl when they have one of the worst defenses in the league. So they have 4 of the very very best players in the game, but still can't stop teams? That isn't pro bowl play.
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
Stats are so overrated. I mean yeah those stats are pretty and all, but you know there is a lot more in concideration. I mean look at this:
54 tackles, 6 INT's, PDEF 31
40 tackles, 9 INT's PDEF 16
According to your "more game changing" plays (interceptions over pass deflections) Asante Samuel would have been the better corner. Yet if you watched their games, you could tell Darrelle Revis was easily the best corner in the NFL, while Samuel wasn't top 4.
Although I do understand why you needed to include stats.
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
Honestly bro i see where your coming from but instead of being unbiased u basically just told us why the Rams players are not the best. Here is my argument:
Theres a reason Jackson made it in front of Mccoy, Bradshaw, and Forte. Jackson kept pounding the ball all year taking so many hits and grinding it out on a week to week basis these other 3 did not. McCoy had the luxury of Mike vick and most of his yards were because the D had to account for Vick more than him. Bradshaw fumbled waay to much and lost his starting job to Jacobs. Forte was way to inconsistant to start the season and his rushing numbers have been good just recently and there is no way he is playing harder than jackson.
On julius peppers... The reason he is in the pro bowl is because he changed the landscape of the Bears D... Wait isnt that exactly what Chris Long did? But Long does not get the exposure to people do not realize the QB pressures.
O and as a Cornerback tackles are not always a positive stat. Most of them are allowing the receiver to make the catch then tackling him. Bartell is still our #1. I dont think Bartell deserves a pro bowl appearance because he was not dominant down the stretch but i do think he deserves it more than Hall (4 picks vs. the Bears 6 total) and woodson.
Josh Brown is a better kicker than Akers but he really did not have any huge pressure kicks except in san fran.
Donnies jones is the best punter in the league period. He deserves it
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
One question I have: Could you post stats for the Pro Bowl KR and PR rankings? I'd like to see where Amendola stands compared to them.
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
Is Adrian Wilson not a strong safety and the other two (Rolle and Collins) free safeties?
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
I think McCoy fans have a valid gripe. However, Jackson is 3rd in the NFC in yards from scrimmage. I think his place on the roster is legit.
-01-01-2011 #13thickandthin Guest
Re: Pro Bowl Breakdown
I would have raised some of the issues that others did about Jackson, but I think that discussion has already pretty well played out.
Hall vs. Peppers is somewhat of a toss-up. First of all, I don't think the division argument is that strong. When examining a specific player, you're looking at individual match-ups rather than how good the opposing teams are from top to bottom. I don't think the NFC North has especially strong offensive tackles as compared to the rest of the league. Secondly, Israel Idonije is the 4-3 defensive end opposite Julius Peppers. This is relevant to both the argument here--that Peppers would have been the focus of opponents' blocking schemes--and the subsequent discussion of defensive tackles. Given that both men have had 8 sacks this year, I hardly think that Peppers is unquestionably the main threat; in fact the increase in his numbers during the latter half of the season might be directly related to offenses adjusting their protection schemes to account for the emergence of Idonije.
I would argue that Robbins' impact goes beyond the stats. Having made few other personnel changes on the defense, suddenly Hall has his best season in years and our rush defense jumps about 12 spots in the rankings from 2009 to 2010. Besides, strictly speaking Justin Smith isn't even a defensive tackle; he's a 3-4 defensive end. If 3-4 outside linebackers don't count as defensive ends, then 3-4 defensive ends shouldn't count as defensive tackles.
I also do not think that the game tape suggests at all that Bradley Fletcher is our top corner. The fact that Spags benched him for Kevin Dockery at one point during the season should make that clear enough. Bartell is another excellent example of how the stats don't tell the whole story. His numbers are lower than Fletcher's because quarterbacks don't throw his way near as often. That said, I don't think I would put either in the Pro Bowl.
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