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-01-15-2002 #1mxbrian Guest
Rams Packers Statistical Comparison
Shocking, that is how I would describe it. I just looked at the regular season comparisons on cnnsi.com at the following link http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/foo...s-Packers.html
I watch these stats religiously just to do my own little sick comparisons of who SHOULD win the game. Yes, the Rams are usually statistically superior, HOWEVER, this game is particularly lopsided.
:cool: Special teams, yes, that is right, special teams, we hold an advantage in this department, can you believe that?
All in all there are 32 categories of stats and the Rams are superior in 30 of the 32. That is the biggest gap I've seen this year since the Detroit game.
One key point is that the one category GB has on us is points per game, but not by much.
KEY TO GAME: TURNOVERS
ADVANTAGE RAMS AT HOME WITH CROWD AND ON TURF !!!
Another thing that is kind of shocking is how average GB is to the rest of the NFL. They hover just around the NFL average in all the categories. Yes, they have beat some very good teams this year. This Rams team is different though. They haven't seen this yet, and it will stun them. I look for the Rams to really exploit a slow secondary right from the get go.
Good thread mx. :lid:
-01-15-2002 #3bud4wiser Guest
Figures don't lie, only liars figure...
Well, gosh oh golly, I guess the RAMS don't really need to play this game. We'll just come out hold up a clipboard and say, "you lose". Just kidding.... :-)
Please let me add a few "pertinent facts" relating to how these statistics were compiled.
1. Green Bay had to play at least 8 home games outside in the weather on "actual grass". One might expect that offensive-play related stats would suffer under these conditions. And please note: there is not a big difference in many of these stats between the RAMs and Packers.
2.One of the most critical stats, "turnovers" heavily favors the Packers. One might conclude that this stat is a "point-bearing" statistic that cancels out many other stats: hence Green Bay's winning record.
I would hope the RAMS continue to note this anomaly and pay close attention to it at game time.
In another thread it might be mentioned that another statistical library be assembled for 'Dome based" teams........
Look at it from this point of view on the turnovers guys: majority happened in two games. I think the turnover stat for the Rams is skewed. Since the Bucs game, turnovers have not been a factor.
The natural grass is a good point also, and yes they are built for grass and for the 8 home games, but that is why the stat of them being the 19th ranked pass defense is pertinent. The Packers secondary isn't the speediest team in the world. The main interception last week was somewhat skewed by the fact Garcia underthrew the ball. Owens had 3 steps on Mackenzie, and no way does the safety make it in time if the ball was on target. The whiners wideouts were behind the DB's all day, Garcia couldn't get the ball to them outside. This game is indoors, that secondary could get torched.
Last edited by txramsfan; -01-15-2002 at 11:22 PM.
-01-16-2002 #5MsWistRAM Guest
Oh NO! I underestimated the Rams score and overestimated the Packers in my prediction. Oh well!
-01-16-2002 #6mxbrian Guest
Take a pill. Oh Gosh Oh Gee. Sarcasm must be in your diet you chump.
The stats don't lie. Yes the stats are close and yes the Packers played games on grasss.
As a Rams fan, I get sick and tired of people using the Dome vs Grass argument. This year, the Rams are 4-0 on grass outside.
Here are the teams they beat on the road on grass:
Three of those four are playoff teams. Don't forget, the Rams schedule was FAR TOUGHER than Green Bay's so the fact that the Rams dominate them statistically DOES mean something. It means that they consistently played better. End of story.
Even with the turnover ratio favoring the Packers, the Rams "on paper" are superior. Imagine if the Rams keep it to two turnovers or less each game, they COMPLETELY dominate anybody and they go 16-0.
Do they still play the game, of course you dope.
But by all means (here comes the sarcasm) let's hang our hats on the Rams not being tough outdoors on grass and let's also hang our hat on turnovers. Gimme a break ! I'm sick of guys like you always bringing up this lame crap.
-01-16-2002 #7bud4wiser Guest
Stats and Domes
I was trying to point out that the teams that play outdoors may not be able to produce offensive statistics as easily as dome-based teams. Usually more often than not because of the weather, not necessarily the grass or surface.
I continue to think that eventually NFL fans will realize that dome-based team statistics do not accurately reflect performance comparisons to non-dome-based teams.
Please accept my apology, I did not intend to slight your football knowledge or make fun of you or your post.
You make some good points.
-01-16-2002 #8mxbrian Guest
Once again, my temper overrides my intelligence. Bud4Wiser accept my apology as well please. You are correct in that outdoor teams dealing with the elements, either cold or hot, have a distinct disadvantage in terms of statistical production.
At this point in the week, while I continue to count down to the game on Sunday, I find myself looking for any way to make myself feel more confidence in the outcome of the game.
Sorry for taking such a quick reaction to your reply. GO RAMS !!!
I knew Rams fans would stick together.
Actually, for me, this is kind of the fun part of the game. Being the beancounter that I am, statistics do mean something. If not, then no one would use them. The stats can get skewed on both sides, but how you read and interpret them is the key.
This week, the game just happens to be in a dome. When looking at the stats, and the stats don't play the game, it is quite evident that a blow out by the Rams should occur. However, I have yet to see a stat score a TD.
This stuff is greatÖÖ..I had no idea the RAMS had done so well statistically !! Gives me more confidence about Sundayís game.
Thanks mxbrian for bringing this to our attention.
Always a Rams Fan............
Rex Allen Markel
Those stats are very pleasing to see as a Rams' fan, but keep in mind these are the playoffs. One stat that is also lopsided is comebacks (when losing at the end of the third quarter). This factor is huge in the playoffs, and they aren't exactly lopsided in the Rams' direction. Let's hope that the Rams get off to a great start!
Time has slowed down this week!
I dont know about you guys,but my nerves have been short circuiting all week.This has been,by far,the longest week of the season.I cant wait for Sunday!I also love following stats,but I dont get a lot of comfort with them being so lopsided.I guess I am not yet used to the Rams being so heavily favored.Oh well,thats why I love this game so much.The build-up can be almost as intense as the game itself.The Packers worry me,but I am confident that we will win.If we take care of the football and tighten up on special teams and keep Favre in check we will be fine.I sure hope Warner is 100% come game time.Anyway,thank you guys for letting me Ramble.I feel better now.
:angryram: GO RAMS! STAY FOCUSED! WIN!:shield:
Last edited by Aries51; -01-17-2002 at 12:25 AM.ST.LOUIS RAMS:THE MOST FRUSTRATING TEAM IN THE NFL!!!
-01-17-2002 #13mxbrian Guest
Here is my bet. You haven't seen the best of the Rams defense yet this year. My bet is that Little and Wistrom put pressure on Favre all day and the Rams play with excellent intensity and shut down the Packers all day. This frees up the offense to play downhill and stretch their arms a bit. Barring injury and turnovers, the Rams should take care of business. Green Bay has a slow secondary, built for the bigger receivers in the Norris division. They'll be shocked at the speed they see and after a couple of fatal mistakes, they'll have to play way back allowing Warner and Faulk to eat up the middle of the field.
I'm jacked !!!
-01-18-2002 #14MsWistRAM Guest
Aries, it seems like a long week because it's been 2 weeks! I know how you feel, but I'm really not that anxious about the game itself. Impatient to see the game maybe, but not anxious. Earlier in the season they made me anxious, but the way the Rams have been playing of late has put my fears to rest.
-01-18-2002 #15Biestie Guest
Packer fan responds...
Hope you guys don't mind, but it's pretty dull at our board... I guess no one really wants to shoot their mouth off about this game, can't blame them.
First of all, since this in response to the posts about stats... I'm sure none of you are really all that hung up on them, as the game situations and coaching styles have so much to do with them. I'm not downplaying them because I'm a packer fan and you hold the edge in almost every category, obviously they are an indicator of overall performance of the teams, but this is the playoffs, nothing means anything, except the performance on Sunday.
As for my take on the game... You're a favorite for a reason, but I give my team more of a chance than most probably do for a few reasons.
What does G.B. have to do?
Ahman Green... when he's on, defenders get sick of tackling him real fast. I'm not downplaying Faulk at all... he's the man, everyone knows that, but G.B. can keep the ball out of Warner's hands if it comes down to it. This WILL open up the game for Favre.
NOW, Green is a non-issue if we're forced to play catch-up. So the real question is... "How the heck do you do that?" Pressure Warner, first and fore-most, and hope he makes a mistake. I give our secondary a little more of a chance than a lot of people, although not much. Sharper and Mckensie need to step up. The Giants got in Warners face and should've won that game, had it not been for a holding penalty to take them out of F.G. range, they probably would've. This makes situational players like Gbaja-Biamilla incredibly important in the pash rush. He's a speed rusher and one of the people on the Packers that the turf helps. Slowing down the Rams offense is a daunting task, but the one that they absolutely have to accomplish if they are to win the game, since they can't get into a situation where they're trading scores.
IF G.B. can come through on defense, I don't mean a shutout, they can bend, but not break, and they need to create at least two turnovers, then it comes down to number 4. Sherman has played many games this year very conservatively. He seems to be careful in the first half of games not to show teams too much on offense, then take the game away in the third quarter. The niner's game is an example of this. In the second half they went down the field like they weren't even there. For us to win he's got to get the lead out immediately. 3 and outs just aren't an option. Favre can win any game for his team, but they need to give him an opportunity.
-deep breath- The Rams are a favorite for a good reason, and if I was a betting man my money'd be on them, but if it just came down to stats, there'd be no reason to play the game.
Congrats on a good season and good luck.
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