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  1. #1
    GreatestShow99's Avatar
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    Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    The debacle that was the 2003 draft:

    http://www.stltoday.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=460091


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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    if Zygmunt really was the man who said Kennedy was the better pick over Troy P, he should definetly stick to crunching numbers but I don't think he was the man to pull the trigger

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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    Its easy to criticize the move now (whoever was responsible) but at the time, Kennedy was considered a Blue Chip DT prospect, while Polamalu was a guy who many worried was too short to be an impact NFL player.

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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    I agree AvengerRam. I mean, the draft is a crapshoot anyway. Zygmunt is also looking at it on a financial aspect because he's also protecting the interents of the owner. No team (well, maybe the Redskins) let their coaches get whomever they want regardless of price.
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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    spending 3 1st round picks on DT`s in 3 years seems more insane to me than paying out on a safety...yes the dollars may have been viewed as too high for a S but i think S is a safer pick than a DT and DT can be drafted anywhere and have a better chance of makin it in the NFL,yes it is very much a crapshoot but some risks are higher than others...there are far more DT players drafted outside the first round and indeed in the second day of the draft than there are S`s that become starters...if i was running the show and drafting on D in the first round and we were looking at positions instead of the player then the order i would pick would be....DE,MLB,CB,S,OLB,DT but..... we took Carriker because he was the B.P.A in a position of need right and not because of this daft ass "rule"? what if Landry had fallen?

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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    It makes me laugh when stuff like this come up, hindsight is a great thing I agree with AV, Kennedy was a great propect coming out of Pen state, 50-50 chance that the players are going to pan out and we are STILL waiting for Kennedy!! lets move on!!


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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    The draft is a crapshoot, but the first round is not really a "crapshoot" in any meaningful sense of the world. I'm willing to bet that almost 75-percent or better of first round players have average or better careers (though it certainly may be lower for interior linemen). So yeah the draft involves luck, but the first round is a lot less about luck than it is about hard work and smarts.

  8. #8
    z.nrd Guest

    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Drew View Post
    spending 3 1st round picks on DT`s in 3 years seems more insane to me than paying out on a safety...yes the dollars may have been viewed as too high for a S but i think S is a safer pick than a DT and DT can be drafted anywhere and have a better chance of makin it in the NFL,yes it is very much a crapshoot but some risks are higher than others...there are far more DT players drafted outside the first round and indeed in the second day of the draft than there are S`s that become starters...if i was running the show and drafting on D in the first round and we were looking at positions instead of the player then the order i would pick would be....DE,MLB,CB,S,OLB,DT but..... we took Carriker because he was the B.P.A in a position of need right and not because of this daft ass "rule"? what if Landry had fallen?
    Especially since Polamalu could have been used at FS next to AA.

    Instead of who they DID end up playing at FS...Jason Sehorn.

  9. #9
    z.nrd Guest

    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by bigredman View Post
    I agree AvengerRam. I mean, the draft is a crapshoot anyway. Zygmunt is also looking at it on a financial aspect because he's also protecting the interents of the owner. No team (well, maybe the Redskins) let their coaches get whomever they want regardless of price.
    Except they pay the same for the 12th pick whoever it is, so it's not "price."

    And usually the people deciding who coaches can't have is someone who knows something about football. A real true GM with a background in coaching or scouting, for example.

    Not a bean counter who decided one day while staring at a computer that NO safety is worth what you pay the 12th pick, no matter WHO it is.

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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    It seems that the STL ram's first round pick have either been superstars or huge busts with nothing inbetween. Overall though, I think they haven't done that bad really, because we haven't had that many busts. As others have said hindsight is 20/20 (or four years later 20/40)

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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Its easy to criticize the move now (whoever was responsible) but at the time, Kennedy was considered a Blue Chip DT prospect, while Polamalu was a guy who many worried was too short to be an impact NFL player.
    Absolutely. Kennedy was considered pretty much a sure thing. You can't always test who has the most heart and what type of injuries they will sustain. I'm against a guy like Zyggy making these types of decisions but looking back now is useless.

  12. #12
    z.nrd Guest

    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    Absolutely. Kennedy was considered pretty much a sure thing. You can't always test who has the most heart and what type of injuries they will sustain. I'm against a guy like Zyggy making these types of decisions but looking back now is useless.

    Who is looking back?

    Who is in charge NOW?

    On top of it you miss the point. It has nothing to do with Kennedy.

    Was taking Kennedy over Polamalu because the bean-counter doesn't want to pay 12th pick money to *any* safety a GOOD reason?


    Cause even if Kennedy worked out, the issue is the same...the guy who thinks that way is still the guy who runs the Rams on a daily basis.

    Now is that good or not?

    THAT is the issue. Nothing else is.
    Last edited by z.nrd; -06-04-2007 at 08:59 PM.

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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by z.nrd View Post
    Except they pay the same for the 12th pick whoever it is, so it's not "price."
    Not true. The position has a great deal to do with it. Example: Quinn being picked 22nd in the first round. Do you really believe he is going to be offered the same contract terms as a TE, LB, S, OG, C, etc as a 22nd pick? While the agents attempt to marginize the disparity of contracts based on position as opposed to draft order, it is not ALWAYS a given.

    And usually the people deciding who coaches can't have is someone who knows something about football. A real true GM with a background in coaching or scouting, for example.

    Not a bean counter who decided one day while staring at a computer that NO safety is worth what you pay the 12th pick, no matter WHO it is.
    Zygmunt isn't a "bean counter". He's been around a long time, knows football, especially where it matters regarding contract, salary caps, etc. There is a great deal of preparation prior to the draft. Who has "veto" power on the Ram's staff, I don't know, but I'm sure all opinions are weighed and a consensus is built prior to going into the draft.

    Quote Originally Posted by chiguy
    The draft is a crapshoot, but the first round is not really a "crapshoot" in any meaningful sense of the world. I'm willing to bet that almost 75-percent or better of first round players have average or better careers (though it certainly may be lower for interior linemen). So yeah the draft involves luck, but the first round is a lot less about luck than it is about hard work and smarts.
    PLEASE! The first round is the biggest crap shoot of all considering expectation to delivering meaningful contribution that year to the actual contribution to the team that drafted them over the term of their contract. Especially when you consider the big money that has been paid out for draft picks one through five. I would say more often than not, those picks do not live up to the expenditure made by the team.
    Last edited by bigredman; -06-04-2007 at 10:12 PM.
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  14. #14
    z.nrd Guest

    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    #1, Obviously, teams---all teams---don't want to draft a guy high who isn't worth the money. And that includes a certain amount of position slotting. However. There are gray areas in that. Rigid Position Slotting can mean ignoring real football value.

    And that's what the Rams do. Or did anyway (JZ may have learned that lesson the hard way.)

    See, according to the Rigid Slotting argument, no safety is worth 12th round pick money. That mean LANDRY is not worth the pay you give a 12th pick. Why? He's a safety. Neither is Polamalu worth 12th pick money. Why? He's a safety. In spite of any personnel assessment of his actual value as a football player.

    Rigid slotting is arbitrary and ignores actual football value. There are going to be safeties worth the 12th pick. A rigid system made up in front of a computer by a guy with no training or background in coaching or scouting or real personnel assessment can't tell the difference. Remember, this is the same guy who arbitrarily decided you don't give a middle linebacker 3 million dollars...and as a result, Fletcher was allowed to walk. Since then if you add up what was paid to Duncan, Claiborne, and Witherspoon, it is far more than double what they would have paid just to keep Fletcher. So rigid position slotting by a non-personnel guy has its dangers.

    Bearing in mind that I did not refer to EVERY position. I said SAFETY. Clearly, it was visible at the time and since that Polamalu was worth the 12th pick and worth 12th pick money. Unless you think it was better to have a 3rd 1st round DT on the bench plus Jason Sehorn at FS in 2003 than Polamalu (and Polamalu could have played FS in 2003), and unless you think that a secondary with Atogwe at FS and Chavous at SS in 2007 is better than a secondary with Chavous at FS (where he belongs) and Polamalu at SS.

    I assume you don't think either thing, since it's obvious in each case what is and would have been better.

    So, arbitrary position slotting is not the god's gift it appears to be to some.

    #2. The idea that just hanging around Rams Park writing contracts makes Zygmunt anything but a bean counter just flies in the face of evidence. Because of course there is no evidence he knows the first thing about personnel or team-building. He defers to his coaches and scouts, as well he should, in which case, you have to ask---why is he in charge? What purpose does it serve to have him in charge? So far the only policy we can actually identify him with is Rigid Position Slotting (Fletcher, Polamalu), and he may even have dropped THAT, since after all, he ended up paying FAR more for Witherspoon than he ever would have for Fletcher.

    If you believe there is any evidence whatsoever that he contributes anything but bean counter knowledge, spell it out---with proof. What has Jay Zygmunt ever done to impress you with his wide and vast football knowledge? Don't just give me the empty mantra about how he must know stuff---prove it.

    And if he is just going to defer to his coaches and scouts on personnel matters (except for the bean-counters Rigid Position Slotting thing which arguably cost the Rams far more than it ever gained them)...then, what earthly good IS he?

    Wouldn't the Rams be much better off with a real GM who knows the trade and keep up the hard way, through coaching and/or scouting? Someone who was actually held accountable for his decisions while learning the craft? (Zygmunt never has been and never will be held accountable for anything regarding actual team management.)

    So why IS he in charge?

    There is only one answer to that which accounts for all the real evidence and meets the test of logic.

    He is in charge cause he is John Shaw's trusted ally and proxy, thereby allowing ole JS to function as an absentee president.

    If you have any REAL evidence of anything JZ has done besides negotiate contracts, provide it. No more empty lectures about how he MUST know something because because because well he must. Let's see it. Spell it out.

    Otherwise, the rest of us will just have our accord with logic, evidence, and reality, and assume he is in charge for exactly the reason I said...he's JS's ally. That's it.

    His greatest virtue is that he delegates and does no harm.

    But then, as I said, if that's his greatest virtue, who needs him? Better to have a real football GM type in charge. Not a wannabe who does nothing and CAN do nothing when it comes to real personnel assessment.

    And I do know who has veto power on the Rams draft. It's Zygmunt. Why? The PD has already told us that more than once.

    #3. Zygmunt knows the salary cap?

    Sorry but if that's the best you can do, the man looks even more useless.

    For 2 reasons.

    First is, he is actually not particularly good at the salary cap. At best he's average. Lots of teams are under the cap. There's no magic to that. But the BETTER teams do something JZ has failed to do. They are not only under the cap. They are under the cap while also knowing which players to keep. They have BOTH the players AND the cap space. And I'm not talking about no-brainers like the team stars (Pace, Holt, etc.) I am talking about the next tier down...JZ has no clue which of those players to keep. So basically, he just let the market dictate things to him and let them ALL walk. For example, until Linehan came aboard and brought with him the idea that you should extend key players early, JZ never extended ANYONE who wasn't a no-brainer star. So for example he let Fletcher get away when in fact Fletcher was affordable AND contrary to popular myth, it WAS possible to keep both him and Little (look at the contract numbers if you don't believe me).

    Second is, the good teams are smart enough to have the cap guy subordinate to a real football GM...someone who knows team-building, real football value, and personnel assessment. See, a guy like that, if he's good, will listen to his cap guy, but then because he knows real football value, will know who to keep and who not to keep, who to extend and who not to extend. Again, I don't mean the no-brainer stars, I mean the guys like Fletcher.

    Here's the position the Rams were in before Linehan because they did not have a true football GM in charge. Zygmunt could contribute NOTHING to actual personnel assessment. He doesn't know it and what's more---he doesn't CLAIM to know it.

    Martz was then operating in a vacuum defined by his own very poor evaluation skills. So what did Martz do when it came to defense? Listen to Lovie. Mistake. (More on Lovie in a second.) So, Lovie believes Duncan is nearly as good as Fletcher for half the money. What can Zygmunt do about that? Nothing. He hears "half the money" and figures he slotted MLB "appropriately" so to speak. Result? Disaster. Later, to rectify the disaster, they end up paying twice as much for Witherspoon as they would have for Fletcher. So much for slotting.....

    Meanwhile, Lovie goes to Chicago and what happens there? The GM does not give Lovie the players he wants (cause Lovie was terrible at personnel evaluation). Instead the Chicago GM gives Lovie the KINDS of players he wants. Briggs, Harris, and so on. That's because the Chicago GM knows how to assess talent. Why? Cause among other things he was a scout for 14 years.

    All Zygmunt could do was listen to Lovie.

    So, again, what use is he?

    A good true football GM will know personnel plus have a guy keeping track of the numbers for him. Zygmunt is only half that equation.

    So, again, who needs him?

    Well, that's an idle question. He is never going anywhere as long as Shaw is in charge. He will not be held accountable. And he's not there cause he "knows football." He's there cause he's Shaw's proxy. That's it.




    ...
    Last edited by z.nrd; -06-05-2007 at 01:30 AM.

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    Re: Reason #11,000,000 why Zygmunt needs to stick to crunching numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by bigredman View Post
    PLEASE! The first round is the biggest crap shoot of all considering expectation to delivering meaningful contribution that year to the actual contribution to the team that drafted them over the term of their contract. Especially when you consider the big money that has been paid out for draft picks one through five. I would say more often than not, those picks do not live up to the expenditure made by the team.
    Saying that a lot of picks don't live up to their salary is completely different than saying its a "crapshoot." (Plus, you'll note I said "average or better" and you're talking about justifying expenditures...not the same thing.) Just perusing last year's set of first round picks, I think you'd be pressed to say more than a handful were not at least average for their first year. Bottom line -- 75-percent of the time, the guy drafted in the first round will be capable of making some contribution to your team (and that doesn't mean he isn't overpaid).

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