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  1. #31
    AvengerRam's Avatar
    AvengerRam is online now Moderator Emeritus
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    Quote Originally Posted by Joshua View Post
    Also Av, perhaps Ones Conditioning has something to do with it as well.
    First of all, what's with the superfluous smilie use?

    As for your point, you are only making my point. There are numerous factors that might lead to injury: size, conditioning, style of play, age, bad luck, prior recurrent injuries and, yes, predisposition to injury. The problem is, it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine which of these factors is present with any given player.


  2. #32
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    From 2003 through the end of 2008 Pisa had missed 12 games.

    Ray Lewis over that same time period missed 15 games. Few consider Ray Lewis injury prone. Pisa missed his games in 2 seasons. Lewis missed his games spread out so that he missed a few games most of the years. Lewis is a rock, Pisa is always injured though is a popular belief.
    Last edited by RebelYell; -10-28-2009 at 02:22 PM.

  3. #33
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambunctious View Post
    I know I can't prove a what if but I'm pretty sure if we had drafted Jackson and the Eagles had gotten Avery both players would have notably different stats.

    Avery still may have gotten hurt but no way does Jackson put up the big numbers here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mooselini View Post
    I don't know why people are making this argument.

    Jackson plays on a far more superior team than Avery.
    Both solid points. This idea that Player X could switch from one team to another and would have the exact same production and performances doesn't make much sense to me. It's impossible to know how Jackson would do if he went from the Eagles to the Rams, but since the Rams are generally quite a bit worse than the Eagles, I'd have a hard time imagining that he'd be doing well.

    And let's be honest here, if Jackson and Devin Thomas for that matter had better attitudes and work ethics, maybe they would have been the Rams' pick instead of Avery. But this team is looking for a certain caliber of person, not just a certain caliber of football player. Earlier this year, Jackson disappeared post-game from the locker room and had a talk with McNabb because he was upset that he wasn't being thrown to. Big plays are nice, but diva attitudes are not. Especially on a team that isn't winning and isn't doing well offensively.

  4. #34
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    The problem is, fans presume that a player who is injured repeatedly is necessarily injury prone. That is, as I've said 100% incorrect, from a logic/scientific standpoint.
    It's not completely illogical. Pattern recognition is one of the staples of logical thinking. If you define the word "prone" as meaning that one has a tendency to do something, it's strictly speaking correct to say that a player who has tended to be injured is injury prone. It's only when you assume a natural predisposition (as opposed to observing a tendency) that you are incorrect...in some cases.

    There are degenerative conditions that can be caused by injuries, injuries that can be re-aggravated later, and, of course, there's always the possibility that an injury might not heal correctly in the first place.

  5. #35
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    I didn't say it was completely illogical. Predisposition to injury is, in fact, a logical reason for repeated injury.

    What is illogical is the assumption that a player who is injured repeatedly MUST be deemed "injury prone." Because other logical explanations exist, such a concrete analysis is not logical.

    This has been your Mr. Spock moment of the day.

  6. #36
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    Quote Originally Posted by cfh128 View Post
    Did anybody watch the pregame show on ESPN yesterday where they had one of those "get to know an NFL player" deals with DeSean Jackson? He came off as the most arrogant little punk I have ever seen. It was basically 3 minutes of Mr. Jackson saying "I am the greatest wide receiver in the history of the NFL. The things I do on the field are unbelievable. I surprise myself at some of the things I am capable of. I am impossible to cover" blah blah blah, etc. etc. This guy doesn't have a humble bone in his body. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere down the road his attitude starts rubbing his teammates the wrong way.

    I admit that he is a very good player and in retrospect maybe we should have drafted him. But before the draft Avery was seen as more or less the same type of player, only with higher character and more size. So I don't think this was another draft day disaster. I think Avery is still going to turn out to be a good player.

    This character thing is driving me crazy. These are freakin football players, not rocket scientist. They make a living playing a game. The Dallas Cowboys of the 90's went to what they called the "White House" during the week (and who knows what went on out there) and won Super Bowls. You want character, look to yourself for character. You want to win football games, get the best players and play. Avery will never be as good as Jackson. Wasn't in college (I watched him drop alot of balls at Houston) and he won't be in the NFL. We missed on Avery.

  7. #37
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    Here's my take...

    So ignoring the "hit by a car" cases where it's clear that an injury has nothing to do with a player's pre-disposition to getting injured, let's say that when a player gets injured it's because he's either "injury prone" which here I'll define as "pre-disposed to getting injured" or simply "unlucky." We never know for sure which is the cause for the injury.

    I think it's clear that as a player continues to get injured, we should be more inclined to believe that the player is injury-prone and not simply unlucky. That's just Bayesian updating. It's how we make decisions under uncertainty. And given that we can never observe the fundamental cause (injury prone v bad luck), we'll never know for sure one way or the other. But that doesn't mean that we just throw all estimates out the window. We look at the available evidence and make a best guess. But in the end, it's always a "guess."

    I think to some extent people are talking past each other - some people are saying that "we should label people who consistently get injured as injury prone" for basically the reasoning I listed above. Av is stating that you can never know for sure whether a player is injury prone or unlucky, so to definitively state a player is injury prone with certainty is overstating your case.

    I don't want to put words in anybody's mouth, but that's my take on the matter. I wouldn't be surprised if in the end both sides actually agree about the issue and have just been arguing semantics this entire time.

  8. #38
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_Weasel View Post
    Av is stating that you can never know for sure whether a player is injury prone or unlucky, so to definitively state a player is injury prone with certainty is overstating your case.
    By George, I think he's got it!

  9. #39
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    Re: remember in last years draft...

    Sorry, just my opinion but the label "injury prone" is an attempt to classify a perceived trend whether it exists or not. As I said, Pisa has been hurt less than Ray Lewis but the opinion is that Pisa is injury prone and Ray Lewis isn't. Why? It has been routine to classify Steven Jackson as injury prone but the facts state otherwise.

    To me the claim of gas pricing is very similar. When oil goes up and gas prices shoot up, people always claim to see a pattern that. When oil goes down and gas prices don't go down, people claim again that this is a pattern. The reality is that gas prices and oil prices have a lag depending on the station and how often they refill their tanks. When people see a pre-perceived pattern it reconfirms their position. When oil goes up and gas prices don't (which is routine), they waive this off as outside the norm because it doesn't reconfirm their pre-conceived pattern. Because Pisa had 2 injures early in his career, he was labeled injury prone. The fact though is that he was as healthy as any other starting LBer. If you see him as injury prone you are willing to waive off any other data being counter to the argument because it doesn't re-confirm your position.

    In this very thread we have the idea that Avery is injury prone. Why? He re-aggravated a prior injury (is that a new injury?) and he had a new hip injury that was again re-aggravated. Playing before you are 100% healthy and re-aggravating an injury isn't exactly the same as getting injured again.

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