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Thread: Sunday's Key Matchups/Prediction

  1. #1
    Ram_Mas Guest

    Sunday's Key Matchups/Prediction

    Hello. Glad I found the site again, as it's been a while since I've been in here. With the help of Pro Football Focus, a website that grades every player on every play, I've been comparing the Rams starters to their opponents' starters since Week Two and have been spot-on on predicting their last two blowout losses. Here's how I see this week's game playing out:

    The Redskins are going to want to run early and often and hope they can contain the Rams' outside rushers. If they're successful, it will be another long day for the Rams' front four and secondary. On offense, the Rams just need to contain the Skins' outside rushers, as every Ram offensive lineman has a negative grade on the season pass blocking. Here are some key mismatches to look for:

    James Hall and Robert Quinn vs Trent Williams
    While Williams has been a stellar run blocker, Hall and Quinn have been the Rams' only bright spots on the line against the run. However, the advantage for the Rams here is with their pass rush. Hall and Quinn have a 1.9 and 2.0 grade when rushing the passer (which ranks them 21st and 22nd off all 4-3 DE's who have played 25% of their team's snaps) and Williams has a -4.6 grade trying to pass block (#57). Big advantage to the Rams here.

    Chris Long vs. Jammal Brown
    Long has been a huge disappointment against the run (-4.6), but Brown hasn't graded positively as a run blocker (-0.8). However, Long has been a beast as a push rusher (#3 overall with a 9.0 grade) and Brown has been a sieve. Long has a huge advantage with a grade differential of +12.8.

    The Redskins will want to exploit some favorable matchups on the other side of the ball with their 3-4 pass rushers against the Rams dismally disappointing OL who have allowed the opposition get to Sam Bradford faster than Rosie O'Donnell can polish off a buffet line.

    Smith/Saffold vs. Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan
    Saffold has been improving since a poor game in Week One but he'll have his hands full against Orakpo, who has a 3.0 grade advantage over the 2nd-year Saffold. The difference in good drafting over the God-awful will be further showcased on the other side of the line when Justin Smith and his -5.1 pass blocking grade (59th in NFL) tries to not play himself into a second-straight trip to the bench against the Skins' rookie stud Kerrigan. Kerrigan, who, like Quinn, was taken in the first round of this year's draft, already has earned a 4.4 pass rushing grade...good for 10th among all 4-3 DE's and 3-4 LB's. The Rams need to utilize some two-back or two TE sets to contain the Redskins' ends because Washington's other interior three haven't been able to get much of a rush up the middle.

    Rams' Running Game vs. Skins' DL
    The Rams haven't exactly been world-beaters on the ground but they are poised for success against the Redskins on Sunday. While RDE Stephen Bowen has been very strong against the run, London Fletcher is the only other member of the Redskins' front seven who has a positive grade here. If Smith, Harvey Dahl and Jason Brown can even have average games this week, the Rams should dominate the left side of the Redskins' OL as Kerrigan, Adam Carriker and Nose Tackle Barry Cofield have a collective grade of -8.8 against the run.

    Rams WR's vs. Redskins CB's
    While Washington's safeties have been great, their DB's leave a lot to be desired and if Bradford is afforded the time, Gibson, Sims-Walker and DA can have some success. Josh Wilson has been good in coverage this season but Deangelo Hall and Reed Doughty have been flat-out bad, combining for a -8.0 grade against the pass.

    Rams DB's vs. Redskins WR's
    As bad as the Redskins DB's have been this season, the Rams have been much worse. The crew of King, Fletcher, Harris, Dall and Mikell have combined for an embarrassing -15.1 grade against the pass, thanks in most part to Justin King's -11.3 disaster...and it is this +16 advantage for the Washington wide receivers that, on paper, give the Redskins a one to 4-point edge in this game.

    On paper, the Redskins might have the advantage in this game, but one cannot predict it without considering some major intangibles here. First, the Redskins are following up a Monday Night road game with another road game against a hungry team playing their second-straight game at home. That alone is a huge advantage for the Rams who need this game in the worst way imaginable. They cannot into a bye week with an 0-4 record. They cannot game plan for their next game in Green Bay with questions of job losses looming in the back of their minds (are you listening, Devaney?). The Rams need to throw the kitchen sink at Washington on Sunday or the season is OVER. I don't care about the schedule in the second half. I don't care about the division the Rams play in. If they lay an egg against the Redskins, I repeat (and you repeat after me)....THE SEASON IS OVER. In what should be a high-scoring game, I see the Rams, like in 2010, getting their first victory against the Redskins. After a big first half, the Rams hang on to win 34-30.
    RAMarkable and swatter555 like this.

  2. #2
    swatter555's Avatar
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    Re: Sunday's Key Matchups/Prediction

    Nice analysis. I tend to agree that if the Rams can't win this one, the season is over. I think the skins win this one, though. The Rams simply have not shown they have any potential to overcome poor play and numerous mental errors each game. I hope I am wrong.

  3. #3
    dgr828's Avatar
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    Re: Sunday's Key Matchups/Prediction

    How About OJ Atogwe, is he playing in this one?

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    macrammer's Avatar
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    Re: Sunday's Key Matchups/Prediction

    thanks for the analysis. If Rams play to their potential I would expect these ratings to change. We are at bottom now and can really only go up!

  5. #5
    Ram_Mas Guest

    Re: Sunday's Key Matchups/Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by dgr828 View Post
    How About OJ Atogwe, is he playing in this one?
    Yes, and Atogwe is having a pretty good year so he helps the Redskin's secondary since their corners aren't playing that great. Currently, they have Atogwe graded 2.7 against the run and 1.2 vs. the pass.

  6. #6
    RamsFanCK's Avatar
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    Re: Sunday's Key Matchups/Prediction

    34-30...I think we win this one too, but this is more on the defense then the offense. I am gonna call this game a 23-16 win over the skins....and we will be lucky if we score that much. Hopefully the offense proves me wrong and throws up that 34 you think they are gonna get though!

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