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Thread: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

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    Re: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I absolutely disagree with Football Outsiders' claim that Bradford could be considered the worst starting QB in the league, but I also disagree with the trend this offseason of completely shouting down or discounting any "national voice" that has made critical observations about Sam.
    Agree 100% - Nick said better and more succinctly what I've been trying to say, which is that you can't condemn an analysis just because it comes to a conclusion you don't like.


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    Re: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

    The thing I don't like about DYAR and the similar DVOA is that they (Football Outsiders) start with actual numbers then mold them based on their own subjective views of certain plays, even some might say to the extent of meeting a pre-determined result.

    Also, for all their vaunted statistics, their team DVOA/DYAR calculation hasn't picked the SB winner in 10 years.
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    Re: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

    Are the Rams really the worst team in the NFL?
    Tipsheet thinks not, but we concede the statistics at this point in the team's history aren't pretty. The team's won-loss record over the past 5 years is gruesome, too.


    Fixed

    Nobody mentions how Bradford eclipsed the the win total of the Rams previous 3 seasons in his Rookie year.
    Ramendola16 likes this.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I absolutely disagree with Football Outsiders' claim that Bradford could be considered the worst starting QB in the league, but I also disagree with the trend this offseason of completely shouting down or discounting any "national voice" that has made critical observations about Sam.
    Nobody is shouting down anything. We're simply questioning this particular analysis and pondering why the PD would choose to quote it in a feature article.

    But, hey... thanks for reigning in our wild fandom with your ”voice of reason” explanation.

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    Re: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_Weasel View Post
    Well whether it's widely used is irrelevant, let me say it's "widely used in some circles" and leave it at that.

    And actually, it does account for many situational things, including some of the things you listed. For example, they actually watch the tape, the coach's tape, play by play. Balls that are dropped are not counted against the QB (in fact, if it was a catchable ball, that's like a completion if memory serves). Nor do balls that were intentionally thrown out of bounds. Sacks count differently depending on how long the QB held the ball, etc.

    And installing a complicated offensive scheme with a highly abbreviated offseason is an explanation for poor play, not a reason why we should refuse to acknowledge that it is poor play.
    The problem with fans and people outside evaluating plays and giving weight to the expected result is that we don't know the expected result.

    We, as outsiders to the organisation without a playbook, don't know if a receiver has run an incorrect route, or a blocker has missed an assignment. We don't know if a defender is supposed to be covering a particular receiver or zone. Sure, there are times when these things are obvious, but there are times when they aren't too. Does a pass that falls to no one in the middle of the field count as a bad pass if a receiver is supposed to be there to catch it? How can we say for sure that a sack is down to the QB holding it for too long when we don't know when he is supposed to get rid of the ball? Does Bradford throwing a ball too high for a receiver count against Bradford if the receiver has run his route 5 yards too shallow? Does Bradford get criticised for not connecting on a deep pass because the receiver struggled with a jam at the LOS?

    Using the expected result when we don't know the expected result is just poor statistical analysis.

    Which is probably why they came to such a ridiculous conclusion

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    Re: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

    Quote Originally Posted by tomahawk247 View Post
    The problem with fans and people outside evaluating plays and giving weight to the expected result is that we don't know the expected result.

    We, as outsiders to the organisation without a playbook, don't know if a receiver has run an incorrect route, or a blocker has missed an assignment. We don't know if a defender is supposed to be covering a particular receiver or zone. Sure, there are times when these things are obvious, but there are times when they aren't too. Does a pass that falls to no one in the middle of the field count as a bad pass if a receiver is supposed to be there to catch it? How can we say for sure that a sack is down to the QB holding it for too long when we don't know when he is supposed to get rid of the ball? Does Bradford throwing a ball too high for a receiver count against Bradford if the receiver has run his route 5 yards too shallow? Does Bradford get criticised for not connecting on a deep pass because the receiver struggled with a jam at the LOS?

    Using the expected result when we don't know the expected result is just poor statistical analysis.

    Which is probably why they came to such a ridiculous conclusion
    All of that is true, but it is all also true of any "analysis" including watching game tape. But clearly we make judgments - sometimes they are wrong, no doubt. But attempting to correct for something and doing so imperfectly is still probably better than ignoring it altogether, if you're careful with your analysis (FO is sometimes not as careful as I would like them to be, which is one of my complaints). And like I said, in any case it applies equally to watching the games. And I have yet to hear anybody say you can't evaluate players by watching the game because you don't know what the intent of the play was.

    I'm not trying to defend the conclusion - I disagree with it. And I'm not really even trying to defend this specific analysis. But I don't think we should constantly trash any analysis that says anything bad about Sam Bradford or any of the other anointed ones without even understanding how the analysis was conducted. I come here for intelligent football talk, not blind cheerleading.

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    Re: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Nobody is shouting down anything. We're simply questioning this particular analysis and pondering why the PD would choose to quote it in a feature article.

    But, hey... thanks for reigning in our wild fandom with your ”voice of reason” explanation.
    When posters refer to someone's opinion as not worth consideration, zero credibility, gibberish, not to be taken seriously, stupid, a joke, and the dumbest article ever, it seems to me a lot closer to an opinion being discounted than it does legitimately considered and discussed.

    I understand that a large part of the fan psychology is utter devotion to one's team and players to the point of standing up for them, but if our goal as a forum is to elevate the fan experience to more intellectual and, thus, more meaningful levels of discussion and interaction, which I believe it is, then differing opinions shouldn't be marginalized as inferior or nonsensical just because we disagree with the conclusion. And let's not pretend that the conclusion has nothing to do with it, because I haven't seen many people questioning the methods behind Football Outsiders' evaluation of Laurinaitis being underrated.

    Me myself, I'm not sure I fully understand F.O.'s DYAR statistic and I'm fine admitting that. But like Gordon said when he prefaced the article, while I don't agree with the claim being made, I have to be honest and admit that Sam's other numbers to this point aren't great. I think there are a lot of factors that go into that, but one of them is Sam not playing up to his ability, and from the articles I've read, that's something Sam would acknowledge as well, so I'm not sure why some fans seem to get disgruntled when a national voice points that out.

    Regardless, I'm looking forward to a bounce-back season from Sam, one in which he hopefully improves upon his DYAR numbers and changes Mr. Verhei's mind.
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    Re: Tipsheet: The Case Against Sam Bradford

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick_Weasel View Post
    . I come here for intelligent football talk, not blind cheerleading.
    So if someone thinks its aburd to call Sam Bradford one of the worst QBs in the league, that makes that person a "blind cheerleader"?

    Please.

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