Top 25 wide receivers

[HUbison]

Exactly. It sounds as if some are outraged because Brooks thinks Holt is the 12th best receiver in the NFL. But that's not what the article is about. Brooks is ranking them "based on how I think they will fare in 2007," and like it or not, with the emergence of Steven Jackson, the acquisition of Drew Bennett, and the incorporation of Randy McMichael, there's a case to be made that Holt's numbers could go down in 2007 simply because the ball is being spread around among more players.

It's important to look at what's actually being ranked before jumping on the author.

So then you are wagering that in 2007, there will be at least 11 WRs with better seasons than Torry Holt?

Don't misunderstand. I get what Brooks is saying. Very smartly, he has framed it in such a way that it is pure speculation. He can't prove it right (yet), but he can't be proven wrong (yet). Even so, I disagree with him about the 2007 season. As I have shown, in the major categories over the recent play (past two seasons), Holt has been nowhere near 12th in the league. Anything less than 5th would be a stretch. Will Bennett and McMichael take away so many passes from Holt that 7 to 10 receivers leap-frog past him? Brooks thinks so, but I highly doubt it.

[Milan]

This was posted on another forum I go to. Comments:

"this list is awful for so many reasons.

roy williams
torry holt
lee evans
mark clayton
edit: and calvin johnson lol get the **** out peter king"

"Torry Holt outside the top 5 is absurd."

Next guy agrees to that.

"1) Harrison
2) Holt
3) Andre Johnson
4) Chad Johnson
5) Smith"


Football fans know Holt is an amazing receiver and for some reason, for people who's job it is to know the NFL, they come off as completely oblivious about the league they're supposed to be experts on.

[prof22693]

If you look at the youtube video for his amazing catch against Seattle, most people think Holt and Harrison are the best, not some sportswriters but normal fans. Many (not all) sportswriters are just trying to sell a story and stir something up pending the offseason lull.

[Nick]

So then you are wagering that in 2007, there will be at least 11 WRs with better seasons than Torry Holt?

No, as I didn't write the article or agree with it. All I said was that there was a case to be made that Holt's production could drop, and I don't think anyone can really dispute that. You did a good job pointing out the two year averages, but looking more closely at last season, Holt ranked 8th in receiving yards and 10th in yards per game. Dropping down to 12th from those rankings, if that's one of the areas that Brooks is looking at, wouldn't be a stretch at all IMO.

The main issue though is that too many people seem to be responding to this as if it's a best overall ranking. It's important to look at what the ranking really is - one guy's opinion on what he thinks will happen in one season. Maybe people are just frothing at the mouth for media blood, I dunno. I don't see anything egregious here, just like I didn't see anything that egregious about Peter King's QB rankings. Essentially, they're both fantasy football articles because they're ranking players on predicted production.

[Torry Holt]

In taking the entire game into account -- route running, hands, run-after-catch ability, blocking and overall impact on the game

I agree Nick, but with this kind of sentence I can't see Torry Holt 12th when you talk about route running, hands... If we talk about overall abilities TH is one if not the best, if we talk about 2007 production he could drop. I'm French so I probably made a mistake in reading this article, but like said r8rh8rmike's "Lots of ambiguity in Brooks' list criteria.".

Thanks everyone to respond to my first thread. (hope I don't make too mistakes)

[HUbison]

No, as I didn't write the article or agree with it. All I said was that there was a case to be made that Holt's production could drop, and I don't think anyone can really dispute that. You did a good job pointing out the two year averages, but looking more closely at last season, Holt ranked 8th in receiving yards and 10th in yards per game. Dropping down to 12th from those rankings, if that's one of the areas that Brooks is looking at, wouldn't be a stretch at all IMO.

The main issue though is that too many people seem to be responding to this as if it's a best overall ranking. It's important to look at what the ranking really is - one guy's opinion on what he thinks will happen in one season. Maybe people are just frothing at the mouth for media blood, I dunno. I don't see anything egregious here, just like I didn't see anything that egregious about Peter King's QB rankings. Essentially, they're both fantasy football articles because they're ranking players on predicted production.

Nick, you know how it works.......a paid writer says Holt is #12 on a list. It doesn't matter if that is #12 on the best dressed list, or #12 on the largest kidney list. Brooks put him #12, thereby ranking 11 wideouts ahead of him.

To this crowd (Rams fans) at this time of the year (offseason), that is all that's needed for some push back. Brooks clearly states what his list is...

In taking the entire game into account -- route running, hands, run-after-catch ability, blocking and overall impact on the game -- here are my top 25 wide receivers based on how I think they will fare in 2007

You're right in saying this is a fantasy listing based on individual performance, or at least that's how I (and I believe you as well) would interpret it. However, to finish 12th in total production (some room for interpretation of that definition), Holt would have to have his worst season since '99. According to reports, he is in better physical shape now than any of the past two seasons (which made up my comparison numbers). Might Bennett and McMichael take away some passes from Holt, lessening his production? Possibly. Might Bennett and McMichael take some defensive pressure off Holt, increasing his production? Possibly.

Again, I understand what Brooks is saying, I just disagree with him.

[Nick]

I agree Nick, but with this kind of sentence I can't see Torry Holt 12th when you talk about route running, hands...

But again, that's not what's being ranked. Brooks isn't saying Holt is the 12th best route runner in the league or has the 12th best hands. He claims to use all of those attributes when determining the real point of the list - who will have the best 2007 season.

To this crowd (Rams fans) at this time of the year (offseason), that is all that's needed for some push back.

Perhaps, but that's why I said that it's important to look at what's actually being ranked before jumping on the author.

However, to finish 12th in total production (some room for interpretation of that definition), Holt would have to have his worst season since '99.

I don't think that's accurate. Technically Holt could do exactly what he did last season and still finish 12th as long as 11 guys put up better numbers in the pertinent categories. It's as much about what the rest of the receivers do as it is about what Holt does.

[AvengerRam]

9 out of 10 fantasy geeks have Torry Holt in the top 5 among WR prospects for 2007.

[HUbison]

I don't think that's accurate. Technically Holt could do exactly what he did last season and still finish 12th as long as 11 guys put up better numbers in the pertinent categories. It's as much about what the rest of the receivers do as it is about what Holt does.

Technically? Agreed.
Practically? I highly doubt it. Last year he had 93 catches, 1188 yards, and 10 TDs. We'd have to go back to 2002 before that amount of yards would fall out of the top 12, to 1995 before that amount of receptions fall out of the top 12, and a 10-TD season has never been out of the top 12.

Practically speaking, if Holt only puts up last years numbers (when he spent the season playing injured), odds are well in his favor that his production in 2007 would be well above a #12 rating.

Perhaps, but that's why I said that it's important to look at what's actually being ranked before jumping on the author.

Brother, I know that and you know that. But if we sing that gospel to the masses it will fall on auris non audire. Know what I mean?

[Nick]

9 out of 10 fantasy geeks have Torry Holt in the top 5 among WR prospects for 2007.

Come on, Av. You know they prefer to be called gurus instead of geeks...

Technically? Agreed.
Practically? I highly doubt it.

Oh I doubt it as well, but I'm just saying that from an individual production standpoint, he really doesn't have to decline as much if the rest of the league steps up as well.