Will Brian Leonard Hurt Steven Jackson's Production?

[r8rh8rmike]

Originally Posted by smizzhfx

I can't see Leonard taking some carries really impacting Jackson's production. If anything, Leonard will help to wear down the opposing defenses making Jackson even fresher for those long 4th-quarter runs. It's a win-win situation, and I think it's a given that Jackson's numbers are going to go down, but not nescessarily his production.

Hard to argue with this assessment. Nicely stated. A hobbled or burnt out Steven Jackson would be a disaster and keeping that scenario out of the equation is a major priority. In the end, it's all about winning football games and not about numbers.

[theodus69]

Well Jackson was the man last year when Faulk exited, But Jackson looked like a back after that.
When Faulk was there he was a bit speratic. Needless to say he was in his first year.
But we shall see if Leonard Puts a little pressure on him.
I don't care what a GOD you thank Jackson is, He is replacable, Just like our own jobs !
But I'm pretty sure Jackson will do just fine.

Jackson changed his running style. That led to the vast majority of his improvement. Along with of course a new OL coach and new faces on the OL, both more dedicated to standard power blocking.

If you ever get a chance to replay the Detroit game from last year, there's a goal line stand where Jackson gets stopped cold. Why? He's running too upright and therefore easily stopped.

About mid-season or so he says he started listening to Steven Davis, who was trying to teach him to run lower. Kind of under and behind his pads. Davis should know because when he was drafted, he ran too high too. Davis had to learn the hard way. After Jackson started listening to Davis, you could see the difference.

So compare the Detroit game to the Vikes game. The difference is visible. Jackson actually runs lower, behind and under his pads, which allowed him to use his strength more effectively. After that he became a monster in the red zone.

Add to that the fact that Linehan got him to stop dancing behind the OL and to just decisively burst and go.

Add to that the fact that the OL stabilized. And got better at run blocking.

The Jackson we saw at the end of 2006 finally realized his potential. I look forward to seeing him in 2007.

I also look forward to seeing Leonard take some of his touches so he doesn't get worn down. He had too many touches last year. Leonard will be a good reliever, I bet. Not a traditional change of pace back, Leonard (like Davis) is more of a "maintain the same bone-crunching pace" back. This will be good. We will have fun watching this.

[ramsanddodgers]

I would rate it a toss-up as to whether the running back gets warmed up or the defense gets worn down with/by an increased running game.

As long as the pass/run mix forces the defense to play each honestly and both are effective then using multiple back, thus keeping them "fresh", should be a great advantage.

If, however, it starts to show that Jackson is less effective with fewer touches then Jackson should get whatever workload he needs to be effective as long as in doing so the games itself isn't jeopardized.

[Bar-bq]

Consider this: Leonard is a means of prolonging Jackson's stay in the league, whilst allowing the team to maintain its Offensive productivity for the 15-20 snaps that he is involved in per game. Leonard provides a unique 'pop' to a snap and crackle offense. That, ladies and gents, I like.

(Note- Snap- Passing the football-
Note 2- Crackle- Running the football through Steven Jackson
Note 3- Pop- Your new favourite Cereal)

Originally Posted by ramsanddodgers

If, however, it starts to show that Jackson is less effective with fewer touches then Jackson should get whatever workload he needs to be effective as long as in doing so the games itself isn't jeopardized.

People should look at SJ's game logs from last year.

This idea that he automatically does better with more carries is false.

If you look at his game logs, and measuring solely on the basis of YPC, some of his best days came with 18 or 19 carries.

In fact, he only had a couple of games with 30 carries or more...and in one of those the YPC is *lower* than it is on other days where he had below 23 carries (and like I said sometimes as low as 18).

Some talking head misread some stats and started the idea that the more carries SJ gets the better he does. Actually if you look at his splits, it's not entirely that simple. His YPC starts to peak at 16-20 carries. Of the 68 times he carried the ball between 16-20 times, his YPC was 4.8. He has 32 more carries where he goes 21-25 times, and there his YPC is 5.5. He is always better in the 4th quarter regardless of number of carries.

Keep him under 22 carries, then, and he ought to be just fine. Other than that, there IS NO golden rule as to how many carries will get SJ a high YPC. Not according to the actual game logs....as confirmed by the splits.

[ramsanddodgers]

Kinda my point, Z...

I have long held to the theory that stats can be misleading and even interpreted to enforce pretty much whatever point one is trying to make but at the same time are all we really have to compare players with.

[helorm341]

Will it hurt his stats some next year? Ovbiously it will. But in the long run i think it's going to help save Jackson's knees and thus give him better career stats.