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  1. #31
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    I hear quite a bit how poor the Giants receiving core was, so I thought I'd take a look at some numbers.

    Check out Stats Inc's take on how many balls were dropped by receivers in 2004.

    http://snap.stats.com/stats/nflinfo/...=232&Submit=Go

    It also shows you, if you go to the individual player page, how many times they were the target of a throw, how many times they dropped the ball, and what the percentage of completion was (for receivers only).

    Here's the breakdown of drop percentage of the Giants' top four WRs, from what I can see...

    -Toomer: 5.6%
    -Hilliard: 3.7%
    -Carter: 11.1%
    -Tyree: 0%

    If you look at the Ram numbers, obviously the Giants aren't playing with the skill at WR that we have, but it could be worse - Seattle's numbers are worse than NY's. Koren Robinson dropped nearly 15% of the passes thrown his way, and Darrell Jackson dropped about 7%. Not impressive. Coincidentally, what were Arizona's numbers?

    -Fitzgerald: 1.7%
    -Boldin: 2.8%
    -Johnson: 1.9%
    -K. Williams: 6.6%

    At face value, it appears that Arizona receivers are better than all former receivers mentioned based on drop percentage. But keep in mind, another important aspect is percentage of passes caught.

    Here's a comparison based on that - in 2004, Torry Holt was the target of 136 passes and caught nearly 70% of them; meanwhile, Larry Fitzgerald was the target of 115 passes and caught only 50.4% of them.

    What does that mean?

    It seems to imply that Fitzgerald, who was credited with only two drops, had a number of off-target passes thrown his way, resulting in a low caught percentage. So what happens when you replace the QB on Arizona with someone like Kurt Warner, who during his prime was one of the most accurate QBs to play the game?

    I guess we'll find out, but the numbers seem to suggest that if Warner can regain even part of the accuracy that put him among the league's best, he's going to have a group of receivers that will come down with the ball and help move the chains.

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  2. #32
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    I guess we'll find out, but the numbers seem to suggest that if Warner can regain even part of the accuracy that put him among the league's best, he's going to have a group of receivers that will come down with the ball and help move the chains.
    I tend to agree with you here. At the least he will have a group of receivers who are much more proficient than the group he had last year. However, the talent in Arizona comes nowhere close to approaching that of the Rams during Warner's heyday here, so I don't think he will reach those sorts of numbers again. Another huge advantage that Warner had in St. Louis was the threat that Marshall posed as a runner. That had to soften the defense a bit and open up the passing game. Kurt had this weapon in NY as well, with Barber (although, that nearly the weapon that Faulk was), but I think that in Arizona, the rushing game is still a big question mark that will play a big role in any success that he has there.
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  3. #33
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    Nick, the side of the coin that your stats don't show, and to me an important stat is separation. From what I understand (and I am not a stats whiz) is that the receivers weren't getting any separation until that porous line was already caving in on KW.

    So yes, drop percentage does show one thing, but it is too bad we don't have the stats, tapes or a knowledgable person to say yes, they were getting separation, or no, they were'nt...

    Either way, this year will be a definitive year to me as far as KW goes. I will always remember him for what he did. This year will define if he still has it...
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  4. #34
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    Oh, and to the negative side of KW, as far back as I can remember, he has held the ball in one hand, down low by his right hip, waiting for the play to happen. Too bad, while he was in New York, the RB coach didn't give him the same advice about holding the ball up higher that he gave <insert RB name here that I can't remember off the top of my head>.
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  5. #35
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    Those are good stat's Nick and help illustrate what was painfully obvious when watching 2004 Giants games. It was a real shame that the team wasted Barber's efforts last year. He was definitely the lone bright spot for the 2004 Giants.

    As far as the Boldin suppositions I don't know much about McCown's accuracy other than he was benched in favor of Shaun King and John Navarre so it can't be too impressive. This might be a stretch or a poor example but I get the impression that McCown is like Kordell Stewart. A world of physical potential but just doesn't have "it".

    If you look at Bulger's and Green's stat's from last year they are virtually identical and barring any major injuries, I feel Warner will approach if not surpass them in 2005 since they will all be running a similar offense. I can't back it up with stat's just a gut feeling. Actually, I have to give it up to Bulger since out of the three qb's I mentioned he will probably be dealing with the most responsibility/pressure. I assume that Vermeil and Green, although running a Martz-like offense, will continue to protect the qb more than Martz has protected his. It might be coincidence but the fact that Green hasn't missed a game since becoming the Chiefs' starter and the Rams have been through four(five?) qb's in that time doesn't look too good for Martz's style.

    In any case, the Rams/Cards games will be a lot more interesting but I can't say who's going to win. I think Warner will do well-the best he's done since 2001. If he stays healthy, he might even approach 4,000 yards and 30 td's. If Green get's Warner to buy into, or teaches him, to protect the ball better than he knows right now he might do even better. Warner seems to still have "the eye of the tigher" (yes, I watched Rocky III on TBS last night!) and might just be the next Jim Plunkett story.

  6. #36
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    Interesting comments Mokler (I like your 'Plunkett possibility' too). The Cards may not have the receiver corps that we have but, again, they may have a great Warner comeback in their offense.

    Somehow, I don't believe that anything spectacular -- or highly effective, for that matter -- will occur in Arizona. The Warner-Rams of 99 - 2002 was a short but unforgettable story of a flash in the pan, a magnificent, meritorious moment of achievements and sensation. For the Rams to bask in forever.

    Not the NY Giants, and hopefully ... not the Arizona Cardinals.

    I don't wish my idol KW a bad season or, much less, a repeat injury situation; I just don't expect his offense to be as productive or as winning as what we witnessed with Proehl / Hakim / Bruce / Faulk / Williams / Holt / Conwell, etc. in our glow of glory with Warner at the helm.

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    Moklerman, pls. refresh my memory, who are the first four QBs, bottom row, left to right. Thanks. Great signature!

  7. #37
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    Quote Originally Posted by moklerman
    I feel Warner will approach if not surpass them in 2005 since they will all be running a similar offense.

    ...

    If he stays healthy, he might even approach 4,000 yards and 30 td's.
    I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Warner do better in Arizona than he did at the end of his time in St. Louis as well as in NY, but I find either of the two suggestions above a bit hard to believe at this point. Not saying they can't happen, just that I'd be pretty surprised if they did.
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  8. #38
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    I think Warner can do it. Maybe Warners days are not over. Maybe Warners best days are in front of him. Maybe his real calling was to save the Cardinals and the Rams were a stepping stone within the big picture. Maybe not.

    What ever happens, there will always be those in the media that hate the fact that he throws the ball more then 10 yards downfield and does not rely on a system based offensive scheme to pad his stats or wins. Warner is a talent that should play in a talent based offensive scheme while your Brady's, Montana's, and Youngs of the league have to stay within their system based dink offenses so they can run their stats up and be compared to legit quarterbacks. It's mind boggeling that with all the information available today and the easy access to it fans still cannot make this connection. Of course the media is no help as they use these dinkers glorious QB rating as their proof these dinkers are as talented as Bulger, Manning and Warner completely ignoring the dearth of quality. No stat in the QB rating system is more friendly to quarterbacks then completion percentage yet fans can not see that throwing an avalanche of dink passes vaults many QB ratings into the rhelm of over-rated. Then take Manning or Warner and compare them to the dinkers using the same formula. Could it be that most people don't really care about this kind of stuff and find it unimportant? could they actually have better things to worry about? Nah

  9. #39
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    Quote Originally Posted by RealRam
    Moklerman, pls. refresh my memory, who are the first four QBs, bottom row, left to right. Thanks. Great signature!
    Sorry it took so long to get back to this thread, I've been spending very little time on the computer lately. Anyway, to answer you question:

    1. Karl Sweetan (headshot)
    2. Bill Wade (#9)
    3. Pete Beathard (headshot)
    4. Frank Ryan (#15)
    5. Milt Plum (#16)

    Most of those guys didn't really play too much for the Rams but they did throw passes during regular season games.

  10. #40
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    I Dont Think The Cards Will Win The West,but They Will Be Improved And I Do Hope That Warner Stays Healthy And Has A Good Year,he Deserves It.

  11. #41
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    Re: Could a Warner-led Cardinals team...

    Easy answer. Yes.

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