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    david carr status

    can anyone tell me david carrs contract status and if he is not an unrestricted free agent, what they think the texans plans are for him.

    I am a HUGE carr fan, i think he has all the tools and has been in a terrible situation since the day he arrived. No pass protection at all. I think he is a perfect fit for the bears as i have been discussing last night and this morning with my two dear friends that are huge bears fans and who both realize that this is as close as the bears will get with rex at the helm.

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    Re: david carr status

    I believe he signed a three year deal prior to this season. I don't think it was a huge deal and there are rumors floating that the Texans migh go after Plummer if Dever wants to move him.
    "There's only one way to succeed in anything, and that is to give it everything. I do, and I demand that my players do."
    - Vince Lombardi

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    Re: david carr status

    In 2006 the Texans exercised the option to extend his contract thru 2008. He has just next year left on that contract and will make $6,000,000.

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    Re: david carr status

    Do you think they would trade him for the bears #1 pick?

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    Re: david carr status

    The remaining salaries on Carr's contract...

    2007 5250000.00
    2008 6000000.00

    A part of me doesn't think he stays on Houston's roster with that price.

    As for being traded for the Bears, I don't think that's much of a possibility for two reasons. One, the Bears aren't winning the big one with Grossman because he's still young and doesn't make the best decisions. To me, that pretty much describes Carr as well. The Bears need an experienced veteran who is going to come in, not make mistakes, and manage the game (Jeff Garcia perhaps?). Two, no way is Carr being traded for a first round pick. Maybe a third rounder, but that's about the highest I'd go.

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    Re: david carr status

    We can agree to disagree on that nick. Carr isnt suffering from inexperience, he is suffering from pathetic offensive line play. He has three solid years of playing every down, he is ready to win with a real supporting cast. I am told grossman has one year to go on his contract and as i have posted, i dont see the upside especially with a team ready to win now.

    You are entitled to your view on a third round pick, personally, i would rather have carr right now than at least half the qbs in the nfl and i consider him a much better risk at 31 from an impact standpoint than anything else the bears are going to get in that spot. I cant believe anyone would rather have matt leinart for example than carr. People expect miracles from the qbs that they draft and for some reason, people expect these guys to throw from flat on their asses.

    I would certainly like to trade a mid round pick for kitna as well if i was a bears fan.

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    Re: david carr status

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    You are entitled to your view on a third round pick, personally, i would rather have carr right now than at least half the qbs in the nfl and i consider him a much better risk at 31 from an impact standpoint than anything else the bears are going to get in that spot.
    I respectfully disagree on both fronts.

    One, going into 2007 I can see maybe 8-10 quarterbacks I would rank under Carr when considering talent, past performance, health, potential, etc. I would be curious to see a list of at least 15-16 starting QBs that you'd pass on for David Carr. I certainly see nothing to support the idea that Carr is worth similar draft compensation as John Abraham, a three-time Pro Bowl defensive end who was traded for a late first round pick last spring, and worth MORE than guys like Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, and Daunte Culpepper.

    Two, in my opinion, it's an incredibly large assumption to claim that a soon to be 28-year-old quarterback who though talented has been at best mediocre through his career is going to provide more of an impact than ANYONE Chicago could select in the bottom of the first round. Maybe that's just because I'm a draft guy, but there's a lot of talent to be had still in the late first round. To write all of it off for David Carr... I just can't agree at all.

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    People expect miracles from the qbs that they draft and for some reason, people expect these guys to throw from flat on their asses.
    Protection is a big factor, I'm not disputing that. But of the Texans games I've watched, I've seen Carr make some very questionable if not poor decisions at times. I don't think it's accurate to suggest Carr is a good quarterback playing poorly because he's stuck behind a really crappy line, as good quarterbacks are still able to make plays with less than perfect protection. I would think of all people a Rams fan would agree with that.
    Last edited by Nick; -02-06-2007 at 02:58 AM.

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    Re: david carr status

    Thats whats makes horse racing nick. Nice debate, interesting perspective. I dont think you can underestimate the impact of being under seige in the extreme the way carr has and the way that affects a developing qb. I dont see the comparison to bulger, who in my view is the second best qb in the nfl. I didnt say carr was that good.

    Personally, i think comparing carr to guys like loseman and campbell is a joke. I think he is a better and more promising young qb than roethelsberger or eli manning for that matter. i think he is far far better and alas, without a chance for him to play on a good team, this will remain nothing more than an academic debate since we will never really know.

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    Re: david carr status

    I think Carr would be worth the Bears' 2nd round pick, which will be the second to last pick of the round.

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    Re: david carr status

    i just looked carr up. He completed 68% of his passes last year for over 2700 yards, had 11tds and 12 ints despite being sacked 41 times (an improvement over last year where he was sacked a whopping 68 times and completed 60% of his passes). He has played 5 seasons and has been remarkably durable despite getting killed (look up the career sack numbers, they are really extreme).

    You are seriously going to tell me that he is a lower echelon qb worth at best a 3rd round pick when he completed 68% of his passes last year in his 5th season and got sacked over 40 times again? You have some really really really high standards my friend. Better pass protection and a better running game and i see his td to int ratio improving and his ability to get the ball downfield improving. 68% is pretty darn good for a guy whose judgement you are questioning.

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    Re: david carr status

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    Personally, i think comparing carr to guys like loseman and campbell is a joke. I think he is a better and more promising young qb than roethelsberger or eli manning for that matter.
    I would rank him better than Losman and Campbell, but at this point I think he ranks closer to that end of the spectrum than he does the side that has guys like Manning, Brady, Brees, and Palmer.

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    i just looked carr up. He completed 68% of his passes last year for over 2700 yards, had 11tds and 12 ints despite being sacked 41 times (an improvement over last year where he was sacked a whopping 68 times and completed 60% of his passes). He has played 5 seasons and has been remarkably durable despite getting killed (look up the career sack numbers, they are really extreme).
    I've seen his stats, and I think if you look at more than just his completion percentage you get a clearer picture of Carr as a passer.

    You'll notice that while he completed 68% of his passes, his yards per attempt was only 6.26 yards which was one of the lowest in the league (26th, tied with Charlie Frye).

    Carr ranks 12th in the AFC in passes of over 25 yards with only 14. Only 24 of Carr's 442 pass attempts (5.4%) were thrown more than 20 yards down field. Compare this to other quarterbacks...

    Peyton Manning: 13.4%
    Drew Brees: 9.3%
    Marc Bulger: 13.1%
    Carson Palmer: 13.2%
    Chad Pennington: 8.2%
    Donovan McNabb: 13.3%
    Philip Rivers: 12%
    Tom Brady: 12.2%
    JP Losman: 13.5%
    Jake Delhomme: 12.2%
    Steve McNair: 8.1%
    Eli Manning: 11.3%

    This suggests that he's not throwing the ball down field as much as he is completing high percentage shorter passes, so it's not surprising nor is it all that impressive that he finished the year with a high completion percentage. This is also supported by starting wide receivers Andre Johnson and Eric Moulds having yard per catch averages of 11.1 and 9.8 respectively, which is pretty low.

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    You are seriously going to tell me that he is a lower echelon qb worth at best a 3rd round pick when he completed 68% of his passes last year in his 5th season and got sacked over 40 times again?
    The reason Carr isn't worth a first round pick in a trade is you have to take into consideration the other trades that have gone through and how much other players were valued at when trying to determine how much a guy is worth.

    Again, let's look at John Abraham, who to my recollection was the most recent player traded for a late first round pick. There is absolutely no way that you're convincing me that David Carr is to his position what John Abraham is to his. Guys like Shaun Alexander and Edgerrin James couldn't be moved for first round picks. Is Carr better or more valuable at his position than those two players are at their's? Hardly.

    The most convincing case that his value is around a third round pick though comes directly from the NFL rumor mill itself, as a third rounder is what it seems the Texans were shopping Carr for at the Senior Bowl...

    http://blogs.chron.com/jeromesolomon...d_the_nfl.html

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    You have some really really really high standards my friend.
    How so? My standards are that David Carr isn't worth more on the market than Daunte Culpepper, Shaun Alexander, and Edgerrin James, and that he isn't worth a similar amount to John Abraham.

    You're suggesting he is worth more than Pepp, SA, and James, and has a trade value equal to a player who is one of the top pass rushers in the league.

    I'm still not seeing much to support his being graded at that kind of value. A good completion percentage despite being sacked quite a bit doesn't do it, IMO. Otherwise we'd be talking about Charlie Frye as a player with late first round or second round value as well.

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    Re: david carr status

    The reason that he cant throw the ball down the field successfully is that his offensive line stinks and that is not his fault. I am not suggesting that he is a top top guy, not a top 5 guy. But i think he is in the top half or better and that with the right team around him is good enough to win a title.

    You keep coming back to abraham. How much impact did abraham have on the falcons this year. I will tell you how much. None. Dont say its because he got hurt because he had a history of injury problems and many people here in atlanta didnt like the deal because they thought that he had already slowed down.

    Let me try one more time in the context of what i was trying to say on this thread. I dont really want to debate whether in a vacuum carr is worth a first round pick. We can agree to disagree on that. My point is that the bears are in a window to win the superbowl right now. They have enough talent on both sides of the ball to win it all but they are woefully inadequate at qb. I dont think much of grossmans future, but his long range development isnt even the point of this thread. My point is next year, no farther than that, i think that grossman has no shot of improving enough by next year to lead them to a title. Carr is good enough to win it all, young enough and cap acceptable enough to give the bears longer term upside.

    Thus, my point is that to the bears, right here and now, carr is worth their #1 pick. He will have far, far, far more impact on the bears chances of winning it all next year than anything that they are going to draft at that position and more impact than jake plumber if they trade a lower pick to get him especially when you consider the longer term upside. '

    You can talk all you want about "market value" but sometimes you have to pay for need and that may redefine market in a given situation. I find it very hard to believe that if we were bears fans today, after what we saw this season (not just in the superbowl) that we would want to try to win it all with grossman at the helm next year and griese is not the answer. Grossman had many games with a qb rating above 100, but he also had SEVERAL games that were completely in the toilet, this wasnt just one bad game.

    Please consider my argument in the context in which its intended, which is simply that the bears have a far better shot at winning the title next year with carr at qb instead of the 31 and grossman.

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    Re: david carr status

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    The reason that he cant throw the ball down the field successfully is that his offensive line stinks and that is not his fault.
    I won't dispute the fact that the line in Houston needs to improve, but I think the evidence in front of us points to a different conclusion besides simply "his line sucks." If his line couldn't protect him well and the Texans were still trying to send guys down field normally, then you'd see more dump off passes to the RBs as safety valves and you'd see a lower completion percentage as he throws things away to avoid sacks.

    But that's not what you see. Instead there's a higher completion percentage and the leading receiving halfback only had 33 receptions. Also consider that Johnson had 103 receptions and a low average. Those aren't the kind of numbers you get when you're going down field.

    In my opinion, it shows a clear schematic choice to primarily use the shorter higher percentage passes, a choice likely made because of the weaknesses of the offensive line. That being said, Carr succeeding in a scheme like that isn't all that impressive in my opinion.

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    You keep coming back to abraham. How much impact did abraham have on the falcons this year. I will tell you how much. None. Dont say its because he got hurt because he had a history of injury problems and many people here in atlanta didnt like the deal because they thought that he had already slowed down.
    The reason I keep coming back to Abraham is simple - it sets market value for a player of a certain caliber. When the Falcons traded for him, he was (and perhaps when healthy still is) a top ten defensive end in this league. He'd posted 30 sacks in the previous two seasons and only missed four games.

    What he did or the impact he had in Atlanta is irrelevant in a discussion about relative value of players in trades. Abraham was valued as a late first rounder based on his skills and production in the league. That's the point - a player of Abraham's caliber was valued as a late first rounder. That's the reason why I don't think you move a player like Carr for the same compensation.

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    My point is next year, no farther than that, i think that grossman has no shot of improving enough by next year to lead them to a title.
    Why not? He's already helped take them to the Super Bowl. They were in the Super Bowl this year with him at his current level. He doesn't have to suddenly become an elite passer by next year to lead them to a place they've already been to with him.

    It'd be one thing if we were talking about a team that was middle of the pack and not in the playoffs; then I think you could contend a quarterback may not be able to improve enough to help his team get to the Super Bowl. But considering the Bears were able to make it to the Super Bowl with some inconsistency on Grossman's part, how much does he really have to improve for them to make it back?

    As for trading their #1 pick for the chance to win immediately, was Deion Branch worth Seattle's #1 pick under the same logic? They'd just been to the Super Bowl and lost, and felt good about their chances to get back. They anticipated having a late first round pick, had a big need at receiver, and sacrificed the future for the present. In the end, they were at home on Super Bowl Sunday as well and now are out a first round pick. Branch is a good receiver, but mortgaging the future for the present isn't a guaranteed success, and in this instance, I'm not sure how much of an improvement you're really making.

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    Grossman had many games with a qb rating above 100, but he also had SEVERAL games that were completely in the toilet, this wasnt just one bad game.
    I acknowledge that he had numerous poor games, but that wasn't the point I was making. My point was that the number of good to excellent games he had suggests a level of talent and potential for development, which is why I can't agree with you when you say Grossman isn't going to improve enough by next year to help lead the Bears back to contention. Maybe he does and maybe he doesn't, but he showed me enough this season to think that the possibility is there.

    Quote Originally Posted by general counsel View Post
    Please consider my argument in the context in which its intended, which is simply that the bears have a far better shot at winning the title next year with carr at qb instead of the 31 and grossman.
    I'm sorry GC, but I see little to no evidence that would lead me to agree with such a position.

    I still disagree with how you write off whatever player might be available at 31 as not being able to have an immediate impact for the Bears. Did 29th overall pick Nick Mangold not play a big role for the NY Jets as their starting center in 2006? Did 30th overall selection Joseph Addai not have a big impact for Indianapolis this season? The 33rd overall pick, Houston's Demeco Ryans, won Defensive Rookie of the Year because of the impact he had. The bottom line is you can still get players at that point in the draft who can come in and make immediate contributions to a team. That shouldn't be overlooked.

    Also consider the realistic effects of trading for Carr. You're putting him in his third offensive system in three seasons, which is never good for a quarterback. You're putting him in a situation where, outside of perhaps Bernard Berrian, he'd have to spend time developing timing with his receivers. You're also putting him in a situation where he's being brought in with HUGE expectations because you're basically bringing him in to do what Rex couldn't and win a Super Bowl immediately. No pressure though, right?

    By the way, was that you I heard on Sirius NFL Radio on today's Afternoon Blitz?

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    Re: david carr status

    Nick, alas, we have reached the end of a debate that i would truly truly love to have with you in person rather than on the computer. Too much brain damage on a non rams topic. I respect your view as you do mine, but we have come to that point where we just have a fundemental albeit professional and collegial difference of opinions.

    I am going to think of a ram related thread so we can debate something closer to home.

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    Re: david carr status

    Hmmm I have to say that while I'm not the biggest Grossman fan in the world, he did get his team to the SB in his first full year at starter. Also if I'm not mistaken I believe only our own Marc Bulger only had more games with over a 100 passer rating than did Grossman. First 6 games people were talking about Rex for MVP, surely that wasn't luck for that long of a stretch. Seems like teams starting defending against what he did best and he hit a wall, not surprising considering this was his first full year. With some good coaching and practice this offseason and with his new found experience to draw upon I believe he can be more than good enough to get the Bears back.

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