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Thread: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

  1. #1
    a.p.quinn is offline Registered User
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    13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    If you think about it, more teams will be desperate at pick #13 for a long DB (current NFL fad) than a QB in the top 5. The Rams may be stuck taking BPA at #2 and trading down from #13. My questions are... Who do the Rams take at pick #2 if the trade offers aren't over-the-top (cough, cough Clowney if he's there = Statement in the NFC West)?.. Who do the Rams trade with (pick #13)?.. Who do they select with that pick?

    Remember, Defense wins Championships. It's easier to make an offense one-dimensional than it is to put a defensive in prevent.

    Also, I think the most clever draft strategy would be to trade the Rams first pick down within the top-ten. Then pick-up the best long-DB. That reduces the long-sized DB pool and increases the value at #13. Then trade down with a team that is hard-up for secondary help (receiving a hefty ransom - 2nd and/or 3rd round picks). Follow that (depending how far the Rams go) with Morgan Moses (OT Virginia), Aaron Donald (DT Pittsburgh), Re' Shede Hageman (DT Minnesota) or Jarvis Landry (WR LSU).

    What do ya'll got?...
    Last edited by a.p.quinn; -02-18-2014 at 05:29 AM.


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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    QB is the most important position in Football. Many of the teams in the top of the draft are there largely because they do not have good QB's. Even if more teams are "desperate" after a DB, there are still more value in the QB position, let alone a top draft choice compared to a middle first rounder.

    I don't like the draft strategy described above, because it centers around stockpiling picks. In my mind stockpiling is something a team do when rebuilding a franchise, but when you try to take that last step and become a contender, then you need to get the player you want (since you have less positions to fill). If the Rams think a DB in the top 10 gives them the best chance of winning, then fine, but else I would take the one highest on their draft board.

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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by a.p.quinn View Post
    If you think about it, more teams will be desperate at pick #13 for a long DB (current NFL fad) than a QB in the top 5.
    I disagree, though I guess there are a couple scenarios where this is true: (1) teams in the Top 5 aren't high on these QBs and don't view them as potential long term starters, or (2) the Rams are being greedy and asking way too much for the pick, negating the market.

    I don't at all see #2 happening with this front office, and while I'm not sold on the top selections in this QB class, I think there's enough desperation for shoring up the game's most important position that there will be demand.


    Quote Originally Posted by a.p.quinn View Post
    Also, I think the most clever draft strategy would be to trade the Rams first pick down within the top-ten. Then pick-up the best long-DB.
    Define that player. Because unless someone really surprises at the Combine weigh ins, I'm not seeing a first round talent at CB taller than 6'0" and I have a hard time buying either of the top safeties as Top 10 picks this year.
    a.p.quinn likes this.

  4. #4
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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    While I think that the Rams could very well trade back from the #13 spot, I don't know that such a trade would necessarily be easier or more valuable.

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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I don't at all see #2 happening with this front office, and while I'm not sold on the top selections in this QB class, I think there's enough desperation for shoring up the game's most important position that there will be demand.
    Nick, could you elaborate a bit more on this statement?

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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by a.p.quinn View Post
    Remember, Defense wins Championships. It's easier to make an offense one-dimensional than it is to put a defensive in prevent.
    Variations of that statement have been bandied about as long as I can remember. A stifling defense is an integral part of winning a championship, but at the end of the game, the trophy goes to the team with the most points .. Talent on both sides of the ball i.e. balance is required. The Rams defense has played pretty well overall the last couple of years, but our offense couldn't sustain enough drives consistently to keep the D from getting gassed in the second half of too many games.

    Quote Originally Posted by a.p.quinn View Post
    Also, I think the most clever draft strategy would be to trade the Rams first pick down within the top-ten. Then pick-up the best long-DB. That reduces the long-sized DB pool and increases the value at #13. Then trade down with a team that is hard-up for secondary help (receiving a hefty ransom - 2nd and/or 3rd round picks). Follow that (depending how far the Rams go) with Morgan Moses (OT Virginia), Aaron Donald (DT Pittsburgh), Re' Shede Hageman (DT Minnesota) or Jarvis Landry (WR LSU).
    Surely the Rams fit into the "hard up for secondary help" right? It is IMO far more likely we trade out of the 2nd overall than the #13 - unless we garner a huge bounty of high picks for the #2 overall. We'll see - should be exciting come draft day.
    a.p.quinn and Flippin' Ram like this.

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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    Keep in mind that DBs rarely turn into top flight players in their first year. It's a very difficult position to learn and play, and even top talent takes a while to start producing. There are exceptions, but they are exceptions, not the rule.

    Now there are some top talent DBs in the draft, but I don't seem teams tripping over themselves and offering a King's ransom to grab a mid-first DB prospect at 13. Some team might have interest, but nothing that will set us up like the RGIII trade. I also have doubts the Rams go DB in the top 10. It's questionable any DBs go top 10 this year anyway.

    Trying to corner the market on a position that doesn't have any "standout" prospects this year (for example: Maurice Claiborne) to try to force a team to give up more than it wants to get their guy doesn't seem like a good strategy. Especially if it means using a top 10 pick on a position we don't need to be going after in the top 10 just to get a bigger return on 13. That seems like bad draft capital management. Basically it's like saying, yea we really need an OT, but let's pick a CB that we don't need so some team will give us an extra 2nd rounder for our 13th pick. I can't get on board with that strategy.
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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    To me the best reason the 13th pick will have trade appeal is if Mike Evans and Marquise Lee are on the board. There are a few teams in the late teens of the 1st round that want to draft WR's. Specifically, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and NY Jets. I'm not certain they want to spend a 1st round pick on a WR, but those 2 WR's are the best after Watkins.

    Our #2 pick will have known value after Houston makes their pick. Until then, everything is pure speculation. We tend to look at a trade in terms of what is best for the Rams, but truthfully our trade partner must detect value as well.

    Go Rams!
    a.p.quinn likes this.

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    vanillasue is offline Registered User
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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    Better yet - trade down both picks.
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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    Quote Originally Posted by MauiRam View Post
    Nick, could you elaborate a bit more on this statement?
    #2 was in reference to the second scenario I mentioned, the Rams being greedy and asking way too much for the pick, negating the market. I don't see this front office making that mistake; I think they'll know when they've got their best offer and will strike, if that's what they want to do.
    MauiRam likes this.

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Re: 13th pick will be more valuable in a trade-down than 2nd

    Not more valuable, for sure, but possibly more easily moved for the normal fair market value.

    That's IF Clowney isn't there at two, OR one of the QBs gets way ahead of the others, making the Browns more likely to deal up, and with the extra #1, I think they would deal at least their second rounder to do it.
    Barry Waller

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