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Thread: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

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    2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    By Charlie Bernstein

    Posted Feb 11, 2012


    The next big event on the NFL calendar will be the annual draft which is scheduled for April 26th through April 28th. Draft season is also known as the "lying season" as it's the time for subterfuge and dishonesty, as teams will try to gain any advantage they can.

    Often during this time of deceit false rumors of which players teams are considering are abundant as well as players "rising" and "falling" based on exhibition games and workouts. The moral of the story is believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see.

    Now, on to our misconceptions.

    The Gap is Narrowing Between Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck


    It has been decided for roughly 13 months that Andrew Luck will be the number one pick in the 2012 draft. Luck is the most NFL ready rookie coming into the league since Peyton Manning and there really isn't a weakness in his game. Although Robert Griffin III won the Heisman Trophy and he's a wonderful prospect, there is simply no way that the Colts or any other team in need of a quarterback would pass on Andrew Luck.

    Robert Griffin III could have have a higher upside than Andrew Luck and whichever team trades up to draft him will shout from the mountaintops that Griffin was the number one quarterback on their board. Believe none of it as Andrew Luck is the player that teams have been pining over for the last two years and barring a major offseason injury it is an absolute lock that Luck's name is called first on April 26th.

    The Rams Will Get a King's Ransom for the Second Overall Pick


    We know that Andrew Luck will go first overall and quarterback needy teams such as Cleveland, Washington and Miami among others will explore the possibility of trading up for Robert Griffin III. Although the Rams own the second-overall selection, they won't be able to put the proverbial gun to the head of possible trade partners.

    There's a zero percent chance that St. Louis would select Griffin with the second overall pick. The Rams have already made a sizable financial commitment to Sam Bradford and they can't afford to have that much money wrapped up in two quarterbacks. What hurts the Rams even more is that Minnesota owns the third-overall pick and they are committed to 2011 first-round pick Christian Ponder. If the Rams ask for too much compensation for their second-overall pick, teams can simply call up Vikings general manager Rick Spielman and negotiate for a more fair price to get their guy.

    The final thing to keep in mind is that if Robert Griffin III shows poorly at the combine, the Rams second-overall pick might be completely worthless in terms of a trade.

    Justin Blackmon is a Top 5 Pick

    We are fully aware that the St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns both select in the first four picks and desperately need help at wide receiver. We are also aware that not one but two wideouts went in the top six picks last season. Unfortunately for the Rams, Browns and the Blackmon family, Justin Blackmon simply does not have the measurables of A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Blackmon has good size at 6-foot-1, 215 pounds but he's not as big as last year's top wideouts. Blackmon also lacks top-end speed as he's expected to run somewhere in the low to mid 4.5's in the 40. 2011 sixth-overall pick Julio Jones was bigger at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds and ran a blazing 4.39 second 40 while the at 6-foot-4, 210-pound A.J. Green ran in the 4.4's.

    Blackmon had a fantastic collegiate career and won the Biletnikoff Award for the nation's top wideout two years in a row. His game projects fairly well on the next level but to take a wide receiver in the top ten picks, much less the top five picks he must have great size, speed and hands and Blackmon possesses none of the three.

    It's Easy To Trade Back


    Most fans are in favor when their teams trade back in the draft to acquire extra picks in the hopes of filling more needs. Whereas the idea makes sense, it's simply not as easy as checking a "trade back box" on the draft card.

    To trade back in the draft, someone must first find a player of enough value to come up for, usually a quarterback. With there likely being just two first-round quarterbacks in this draft, there may not be very many players worthy of giving up additional compensation to move up and acquire, thus we may not see more than a couple trades in the first round.

    Trading Back is Always Smart


    There are no absolutes in the draft business. It makes sense to have as many draft picks as possible, but continuously moving back can prevent a team from acquiring an impact player.

    The perfect example is the New England Patriots. The Patriots seemingly move back year after year and are loaded with draft picks. They do as good of a job as any team at protecting their future, but at what expense?

    It's difficult to argue with New England's recent success, as the team went 13-3 and made it to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Pats, they were short playmakers and that ultimately kept them from taking home the big prize.

    Make no mistake, most franchises would love to have had the success the Patriots had over the past decade, but they haven't won a Super Bowl in seven seasons. Mediocre drafting has been an issue, despite having as many picks as any team in the NFL.

    Last season the Atlanta Falcons traded up from the 27th spot all the way up to pick number six to take Alabama wideout Julio Jones. Jones helped the Falcons to the playoffs and looks the part of a future elite receiver. What if the normally stingy Patriots splurged on Jones and Tom Brady had an outside threat who could consistently get deep and beat man coverage? There may have been a parade through Boston last week instead of Manhattan.


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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Who's Charlie Bernstein?
    THOLTFAN81 likes this.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    After much research, I am led to believe Charlie Bernstein is a pseudonym for a sportswriter guru by the name of Armen Dacity. I can't find a link though .. Hope this helps.

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    If the Rams ask for too much compensation for their second-overall pick, teams can simply call up Vikings general manager Rick Spielman and negotiate for a more fair price to get their guy.
    Charlie got this one wrong. IF 3 teams talking to Rams, all have a meeting and say lets all go over to Vikings and try to get a better deal there while trying to still outdo eachother, then yeah, Charlie is a genius.

    Theres a reason that the price goes up when coveting a certain player in the draft, its factored by certain other top prospects going back to college leaving a void underneath Griffin, and more than one team thats interested. double check.
    THOLTFAN81 likes this.

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Sign up for Twitter to follow Charlie Bernstein (@nflcharlie). NFL Analyst for ESPNFlorida.com, FoxSports.com NFL contributor, sports genius, unselfish lover. (Sounds lonely)

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Quote Originally Posted by MauiRam View Post
    What hurts the Rams even more is that Minnesota owns the third-overall pick and they are committed to 2011 first-round pick Christian Ponder. If the Rams ask for too much compensation for their second-overall pick, teams can simply call up Vikings general manager Rick Spielman and negotiate for a more fair price to get their guy.
    This is true, UNLESS there are multiple teams trying to trade up for RGIII. If there are even two teams with the goal, then both MUST get the Rams' pick or risk having the other team jump over them after they've already spent resources to get the #3 pick. This scenario could occur, as the Browns and Redskins are likely suitors (with Miami also a possible team in the mix).

    Justin Blackmon is a Top 5 Pick

    We are fully aware that the St. Louis Rams and Cleveland Browns both select in the first four picks and desperately need help at wide receiver. We are also aware that not one but two wideouts went in the top six picks last season. Unfortunately for the Rams, Browns and the Blackmon family, Justin Blackmon simply does not have the measurables of A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Blackmon has good size at 6-foot-1, 215 pounds but he's not as big as last year's top wideouts. Blackmon also lacks top-end speed as he's expected to run somewhere in the low to mid 4.5's in the 40. 2011 sixth-overall pick Julio Jones was bigger at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds and ran a blazing 4.39 second 40 while the at 6-foot-4, 210-pound A.J. Green ran in the 4.4's.
    I'm willing to concede that Green presented a better overall package than Blackmon as a draft prospect, but Jones is more questionable. Yes, Jones had a great size/speed ratio, but his route-running and hands were both highly critiqued in the pre-draft period. It would not surprise me in the least bit if Blackmon ends up being more productive than Jones as an NFL WR.

    Blackmon had a fantastic collegiate career and won the Biletnikoff Award for the nation's top wideout two years in a row. His game projects fairly well on the next level but to take a wide receiver in the top ten picks, much less the top five picks he must have great size, speed and hands and Blackmon possesses none of the three.
    Blackmon doesn't have great hands? You just lost your credibility, Charlie.

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    Who's Charlie Bernstein?
    I believe I've found a family picture.


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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    What Bernstein fails to do is go one little step further in his analysis. He says that Blackmon is not as good as Green or Jones. He also mentions that Blackmon is the reigning 2 time Biletnikoff winner. If you combine those two, something doesn't add up. Blackmon won his first award when Green and Jones were both in college on their way to top 6 picks!

    He then went out and backed it up with the second one. Height is great, it's why I want to look at Floyd and Jeffery. But getting open ant catching the ball is just as important, and when the pads go on, Blackmon will do that. If we stay at 2, or can get him at 4, I want him.

    That said, I'll happily check that trade down box now because we don't need super stars, we need a team with depth. Then we can worry about super stars.
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    I believe!

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    Who's Charlie Bernstein?
    I heard he works for the Browns...
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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Here is the thing. As some of you guys have mentioned. Yeah they can go to the vikings, however if more than one teams want RGIII, we will always have competition to get our pick.

    Sure browns can deal and get vikings pick, then the redskins will just say OK we will get that number 2 pick then. As long as there are multiple teams that want to move up for RGIII we are always in a better position than the Vikings

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Blackmon doesn't have great hands? You just lost your credibility, Charlie.[/QUOTE]


    AV, have you watched alot of tape ???? I actually agree that Blackmon doesn't have great hands, but has the potential to have great hands.....

    Blackmon's combine means alot more than people think...he is lucky being over-shadowed at this time by the Luck/RGIII saga because FLoyd is really gonna fly up draft boards.....

    I really think that the gap between Floyd and Blackmon will shrink enough that the Rams wouldn't mind trading down .....

    But we will see ....

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    Seriously who is this guy?

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    Re: 2012 NFL Draft Misconceptions ..

    " AV, have you watched alot of tape ???? I actually agree that Blackmon doesn't have great hands, but has the potential to have great hands.....

    Blackmon's combine means alot more than people think...he is lucky being over-shadowed at this time by the Luck/RGIII saga because FLoyd is really gonna fly up draft boards.....

    I really think that the gap between Floyd and Blackmon will shrink enough that the Rams wouldn't mind trading down .....

    But we will see .... "

    Same here. I'd love if we could slide down to #4 grab Claiborne and pray that Floyd drops to #22. That'd be my dream draft. I've already said before that I think Floyd will be better at the NFL level than Blackmon, and why not get the best CB too?

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