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Thread: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

  1. #1
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Back in December, heck, back in September, I was sure that Jake Matthews would be the Rams first pick in round one. SInce then, I've speculated in all the ways that won't happen, but here we are, finally close to draft day, and I still think he's the guy Jeff Fisher wants to end up with.

    Oh, he'll be glad to let Les Snead make a deal to move down with old pal Thomas Demitroff in Atlanta, because it eases Fisher's distate at taking OL early, and only because he knows he'll still get Matthews in all probability, and even if he doesn't, Taylor Lewan would be a nice plan B.

    I was hoping to see the Rams sign a top FS, but now, it looks like the best option is to take Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at 13. A trade down there would probably cost them a shot at him, with so many teams after 13 in need of a safety.

    Unless Justin Gilbert is there at 13, I can't see a better option that taking the Alabama star.

    He's bigger and faster than Calvin Pryor, and many of Pryor's big hits will be flagged in the NFL. Clinton- Dix has better range, has played better receivers in college, and is just the better athlete,a big deal for a high draft pick, though Pryor would be a good fall back option if a trade down costs them Clinton-Dix.

    If Gilbert is your pick, too good to pass up as a top 10 guy, then pick 37 from Atlanta, or 44 has to be a safety it seems, with L. Joyner, D. Buchanon, or especially Jimmie Ward the target.


    On my board, there is a big drop after Gilbert at CB, and Clinton-Dix at safety. One of thyem seems the obvious pick at 13, though another trade down would be no surprise with Snead.

    In the end, I still see a deal down with Atlanta, and a tackle, cornerback/ safety and guard as the Rams top picks.

    Seems like only a surprise at OLB would alter this, because the crop there is thinner and may require an early pick to fill with a really good player.

    With the Rams lacking a real top pass rusher at OLB, it would seem t hat Gregg Williams will want a good prospect there this year. Luckily, pass rushing tweener types can be available in the mid rounds, especially smaller college guys.

    Barry Waller

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    I liked your take on things here Barry, in the end most of us feel the same Les & Fish likely will be making some trades and over the three days they could easily average more than one per day. Especially if they do multiples on day 1. As to their targets, many agree that is a wide mark to shoot at as we have no idea what they will do. To be honest I think they trully are unsure what direction they will go, being willing to set their board and take their shots as the trades and picks fall in line. Or that would be my best guess.
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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Barry, I agree with your thinking that we will end up where we started this whole process. But I'm not so sure there will be that trade with Atlanta that many people here take for granted. I'm thinking the Texans are going to select Clowney at #1 and leave us with less than appealing trade options. The talk about Detroit trading up to #2 is going to be too costly for them. So I'm seeing us stuck at #2 and taking Greg Robinson, if indeed Clowney goes #1 to either Houston or a trade partner.

    I know Matthews is more polished, but Robinson is a freak physically and I'm betting on Paul Boudreau being able to coach his pass blocking skills on the right side with Barksdale sliding inside to OG. Mathews is sliding in case no one has noticed. Kiper, FWIW has Lewan going ahead of him. I just think Robinson will be our next Orlando Pace after Long is done at LT and he'll be fine. In the meantime he'll be a mauler for our running game.

    At #13 you're right Clinton-Dix is our best bet as he can play center field with good football smarts that G. Williams will enhance with solid coaching. If Gilbert is there I would take him ahead of C-D, if not we can shoot for Jason Veritt in round 2 to be our nickel corner.

    The re-signing of Jo Lonn Dunbar signals that we're not going for an OLB too early. With RR Armstrong there's enough potential to man that position and have a 3rd down pass rusher.

    The only unchecked need is at WR and Kenny Britt is probably expected to fill some of that need on the outside with Austin and Cook emerging as stars next year on the inside. Bailey, Quick and Givens will also be expected to step it up. We'll be able to find a WR in round 3-4 with this being a deep WR draft. Or package a bunch of picks to get another 2nd round pick via trade.

    Go Rams!

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    So much to respond to!


    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    I was hoping to see the Rams sign a top FS, but now, it looks like the best option is to take Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at 13. A trade down there would probably cost them a shot at him, with so many teams after 13 in need of a safety.
    Don't rule out the teams before 13 that could look at a safety, either. Clinton-Dix has visited the Falcons, Titans, and Lions.


    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    Barry, I agree with your thinking that we will end up where we started this whole process. But I'm not so sure there will be that trade with Atlanta that many people here take for granted. I'm thinking the Texans are going to select Clowney at #1 and leave us with less than appealing trade options. The talk about Detroit trading up to #2 is going to be too costly for them. So I'm seeing us stuck at #2 and taking Greg Robinson, if indeed Clowney goes #1 to either Houston or a trade partner.
    Some of the moves the Falcons have made this offseason suggest they'll be showing more 3-4 fronts than they have in the past. There's also been talk that Khalil Mack won't make it by Jacksonville @ 3. If that's the case, the Falcons may want to move up for Mack; they need a monster pass rusher, one way or the other. You can make a case that either Clowney or Mack could fit a multiple front defense, so I wouldn't rule out Atlanta's interest in a move up just because Clowney is gone.


    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    I know Matthews is more polished, but Robinson is a freak physically and I'm betting on Paul Boudreau being able to coach his pass blocking skills on the right side with Barksdale sliding inside to OG. Mathews is sliding in case no one has noticed. Kiper, FWIW has Lewan going ahead of him. I just think Robinson will be our next Orlando Pace after Long is done at LT and he'll be fine. In the meantime he'll be a mauler for our running game.
    Robinson is a fine pick. Personally, I've always preferred the refined talent over the raw gamble, which is one reason I find Matthews so appealing.


    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    The re-signing of Jo Lonn Dunbar signals that we're not going for an OLB too early. With RR Armstrong there's enough potential to man that position and have a 3rd down pass rusher.
    I tend to agree. I wouldn't rule out the Rams looking for a hybrid LB/pass rusher at some point in this draft, maybe Day 2-3 if the value is right. But I don't think it's a huge priority at this point.


    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    The only unchecked need is at WR and Kenny Britt is probably expected to fill some of that need on the outside with Austin and Cook emerging as stars next year on the inside. Bailey, Quick and Givens will also be expected to step it up. We'll be able to find a WR in round 3-4 with this being a deep WR draft. Or package a bunch of picks to get another 2nd round pick via trade.

    Go Rams!
    To me, if you're not going WR in the first or second round, then you're not adding anyone who is better than what we already have. We have a lot of 2s and 3s and whatnot. What this receiving unit needs is a #1-type option whom defenses are going to have to roll coverage to. I appreciate the depth of this receiver class, but I don't know if you're finding that kind of player in Rounds Three or later.

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    To me, if you're not going WR in the first or second round, then you're not adding anyone who is better than what we already have. We have a lot of 2s and 3s and whatnot. What this receiving unit needs is a #1-type option whom defenses are going to have to roll coverage to. I appreciate the depth of this receiver class, but I don't know if you're finding that kind of player in Rounds Three or later.
    This. If we don't add a true number one, I don't see how a WR improves the team. Quite frankly, once we get in rounds 4-7, I think the only offense positions that interest me are OG and RB. RB especially seems to have some value this draft in that area.

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    To me, if you're not going WR in the first or second round, then you're not adding anyone who is better than what we already have. We have a lot of 2s and 3s and whatnot. What this receiving unit needs is a #1-type option whom defenses are going to have to roll coverage to. I appreciate the depth of this receiver class, but I don't know if you're finding that kind of player in Rounds Three or later.
    Very true. But we aren't likely to draft Watkins and Evans is not likely to be there at #13. There is no rule that says we cannot find a WR who grows into the #1 role if he has good hands, runs good routes and can get separation...voila. I know it's not that simple but we will have to hope. If my forecast that Austin and Cook become mismatch nightmares then other receivers will get the benefit because defenses cannot ignore our running game.

    Your other points about Mack and the Falcons is probably correct as well so there may be a trade for him. As for the OT Robinson's size and strength are too much for me to overlook when we have one of if not the best OL coach in the NFL.

    Go Rams!

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post

    To me, if you're not going WR in the first or second round, then you're not adding anyone who is better than what we already have. We have a lot of 2s and 3s and whatnot. What this receiving unit needs is a #1-type option whom defenses are going to have to roll coverage to. I appreciate the depth of this receiver class, but I don't know if you're finding that kind of player in Rounds Three or later.
    Yes. The Rams need a playmaker. Watkins is the guy.
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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    Very true. But we aren't likely to draft Watkins and Evans is not likely to be there at #13. There is no rule that says we cannot find a WR who grows into the #1 role if he has good hands, runs good routes and can get separation...voila. I know it's not that simple but we will have to hope. If my forecast that Austin and Cook become mismatch nightmares then other receivers will get the benefit because defenses cannot ignore our running game.
    That's true, but if that's the case, why not just focus on the guys we already have who have the talent to do that (Quick, Givens, Bailey)?

    A second day guy I really like when it comes to potential for the next level is Jordan Matthews. He had a great interview on Sirius XM the other day, and sounded like he really was a student of the game and had a great knowledge of the position already.

    Pat Kirwan said that when he watched Matthews, he couldn't help but think of Jordy Nelson. I could go for that.

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    That's true, but if that's the case, why not just focus on the guys we already have who have the talent to do that (Quick, Givens, Bailey)?

    A second day guy I really like when it comes to potential for the next level is Jordan Matthews. He had a great interview on Sirius XM the other day, and sounded like he really was a student of the game and had a great knowledge of the position already.

    Pat Kirwan said that when he watched Matthews, he couldn't help but think of Jordy Nelson. I could go for that.
    Spot on, we agree. My 1 concern with Matthew is his drops, we've already mastered that art. Personally, Allen Robinson of Penn State has my interest. As for the guys you cited I feel they need to step it up and let's see what we can do. I truly hope we can begin to scare some defenses around the league, because that's the only way we get to the playoffs with our defense which is already top shelf.

    Go Rams!

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    Spot on, we agree. My 1 concern with Matthew is his drops, we've already mastered that art. Personally, Allen Robinson of Penn State has my interest. As for the guys you cited I feel they need to step it up and let's see what we can do. I truly hope we can begin to scare some defenses around the league, because that's the only way we get to the playoffs with our defense which is already top shelf.

    Go Rams!
    I like Robinson as well. Might have some Anquan Boldin in him.

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    citr92 is offline Registered User
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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by mde8352gorams View Post
    Spot on, we agree. My 1 concern with Matthew is his drops, we've already mastered that art. Personally, Allen Robinson of Penn State has my interest. As for the guys you cited I feel they need to step it up and let's see what we can do. I truly hope we can begin to scare some defenses around the league, because that's the only way we get to the playoffs with our defense which is already top shelf.

    Go Rams!
    allen robinson has a similar game to marqise lee imo

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    Re: After Four Months, Draft Probability For Rams Is Right Back at Square One

    Quote Originally Posted by citr92 View Post
    allen robinson has a similar game to marqise lee imo
    There's nothing wrong with that, as long as he doesn't drop the ball when its thrown to him. That seems to be the knock on Lee, lack of concentration. I think Robinson has a bit more of a physical attacking techinque when catching the ball which reminds many of Anquan Boldin. That's fine by me as it is the key reason so many people favor Mike Evans.

    As I've said, I believe Jeff Fisher wanted Kenny Britt for that purpose of being physical when catching the ball to counter some of the more aggressive CB's. Regardless of any of that, we need to see a big improvement out of Tavon Austin and Jared Cook creating mismatches. That will hopefully allow outside WR's like Bailey, Givens, Quick, Pettis and Britt to get better separation and more open looks.

    Go Rams!

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