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Thread: Av's Probabity Machine (Projecting the Top 13 Picks)

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    Av's Probabity Machine (Projecting the Top 13 Picks)

    I developed this mechanism last year and, although its not scientific, I believe it is useful in projecting who might be available when the Rams make their second selection at No. 13.

    Here's how it works:

    With each pick, I have listed the three players (listed alphabetically who I believe (subjective analysis) are likely to be at the top of the draft board of the team holding each pick. Based upon my rules for last year, when a player appears 3 times, he is "off the board" (noted in red).

    This year, I'm expanding it. A player listed 3 times is expected to be "off the board." A player listed 2 times will be categorized as "doubtful" (meaning unlikely to be there at No. 13). A player listed once is "questionable." A player not listed is "probable" (most logical targets listed).

    The purpose is to project which players are most likely to be available at

    So, here's my Probability Machine projection for the first 12 picks in the 2014 draft:

    1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles, Jadeveon Clowney, Johnny Manziel
    2. St. Louis Rams: Jadeveon Clowney, Jake Matthews, Gregg Robinson
    3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles, Jadeveon Clowney, Khalil Mack
    4. Cleveland Browns: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Sammy Watkins
    5. Oakland Raiders: Khalil Mack, Johnny Manziel, Sammy Watkins
    6. Atlanta Falcons: Khalil Mack, Gregg Robinson, Jake Matthews
    7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans, Gregg Robinson, Sammy Watkins
    8. Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Aaron Donald
    9. Buffalo Bills: Mike Evans, Taylor Lewan, Jake Matthews
    10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard, Mike Evans,Justin Gilbert
    11. Tennessee Titans: Anthony Barr, Darqueze Dennard, Justin Gilbert
    12. New York Giants: Aaron Donald, Eric Ebron, Taylor Lewan

    So... that means, according to the Probability Machine, the Rams choices at No. 13 will come down to the following:

    Off-the-Board: Blake Bortles, Jadeveon Clowney, Mike Evans, Khalil Mack, Johnny Manziel, Jake Matthews, Gregg Robinson, Sammy Watkins

    Doubtful: Darqueze Dennard, Aaron Donald, Justin Gilbert, Taylor Lewan

    Questionable: Teddy Bridgewater, Anthony Barr, Derek Carr, Eric Ebron

    Probable: Kelvin Benjamin, Hasean Clinton-Dix, Kyle Fuller, Zack Martin, C.J. Mosley, Calvin Pryor
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    Re: Av's Probabity Machine (Projecting the Top 13 Picks)

    Out of the Doubtful folk I would like Gilbert, then Possibly Donald. I still think he could make our line crazy even more so then Clowney.

    The Questionable people I have no interest in.

    The Probable Kids. I like Benjamin but not with the 13th pick. Think Clinton-Dix would be the top.

    Based on this probability obviously I am hoping the doubtful kids will be there, but there is a reason they are doubtfull. I like Bradford and the Rams brass likes him so I don't see a QB being taken, we are TE heavy, and not sold on Barr. The probable kids would be more appealing later down, which is why they are probably at that point, but out side of Clinton-Dix I don't see us taking anyone at our current position.

    Well done, this was fun and if not purely scientific gives a realistic sense, and removes the fantasyland aspects people get caught up in.

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