I've been trying to come up with a system to estimate the probabilty that prospects will be available when the Rams make their selections at #s 16 and 22.

While it is impossible to come up with a true mathematical formula (given the abundance of variables that cannot be valued with certainty), I think I have come up with a rational method of assessing the probabilities. So, I give you...

Av's Round 1 Probability MachineHere is how it works:

For each team making a selection before the Rams' picks, I have listed the three players thatI believeare the most logical choices. Once a player has been listed three times, I have "taken them off the board" (as noted in bold), indicating that I believe there is an extremely low probability that they will still be available when the Rams make their choices. I have then (using my own most recent draft board) listed the top three players who I believe will be available when the Rams make their picks.

Here's what I came up with:

1) Kansas City: Luke Joekel, Jarvis Jones, Dee Milliner

2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordon, Bjoern Werner

3) Oakland Raiders: Sharif Floyd, Star Lotulelei,Jarvis Jones

4) Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Joekel, Eric Fisher, Sharif Floyd

5) Detroit Lions: Dion Jordon, Dee Milliner, Bjoern Werner

6) Cleveland Browns:Dion Jordon,Bjoern Werner, Cordarrelle Patterson

7) Arizona Cardinals: Geno Smith,Luke Joekel, Eric Fisher

8) Buffalo Bills: Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Damontre Moore

9) New York Jets: Damontre Moore, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo

10) Tennessee Titans:Eric Fisher, Chance Warmack, Lane Johnson

11) San Diego Chargers: Lane Johnson,Chance Warmack,Dee Milliner

12) Miami Dolphins: Cordarrelle Patterson, Keenan Allen, Barkevious Mingo

13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers:Sharif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, Tyler Eifert

14) Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, Xavier Rhodes,Codarrelle Patterson

15) New Orleans Saints:Star Lotulelei,Barkevious Mingo, Xavier Rhodes

16)St. Louis Rams:D.J. Fluker, Jonathan Cooper, Tyler Eifert

17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Ezekiel Ansah,Damontre Moore, Sheldon Richardson

18) Dallas Cowboys: Sheldon Richardson, Jonathan Cooper, Kenny Vaccaro

19) New York Giants: Ezekiel Ansah,Jonathan Cooper,Eddie Lacy

20) Chicago Bears:Lane Johnson, D.J. Fluker, Manti Te’o

21) Cincinnati Bengals:D.J. Fluker, Alec Ogletree, Menelik Watson

22)St. Louis Rams:Tyler Eifert, Matt Elam, Terrance Williams

Now... anticipating the most likely criticism, I am fully aware that the "top 3" for each team, as well as the Rams' draft board,are open for debate.

That stated, I think thesystemI have created has a great deal of logic behind it, and can be used to estimate which players are likely more and less likely to last until picks 16 and 22.

Using my picks, I think it is clear that the Rams would need to take an OT or OG with the No. 16 pick. If they don't, my "probability machine" indicates that there would be a substantial likelihood that the top available OL at #22 would be guys like Dallas Thomas, Larry Warford, Travis Frederick and Menelik Watson (all of whom I think would be reaches at #22).

I invite each of you to post your own version of the "probability machine." I'd be curious to see how it plays out for you.