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Thread: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

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    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    I've been trying to come up with a system to estimate the probabilty that prospects will be available when the Rams make their selections at #s 16 and 22.

    While it is impossible to come up with a true mathematical formula (given the abundance of variables that cannot be valued with certainty), I think I have come up with a rational method of assessing the probabilities. So, I give you...

    Av's Round 1 Probability Machine

    Here is how it works:

    For each team making a selection before the Rams' picks, I have listed the three players that I believe are the most logical choices. Once a player has been listed three times, I have "taken them off the board" (as noted in bold), indicating that I believe there is an extremely low probability that they will still be available when the Rams make their choices. I have then (using my own most recent draft board) listed the top three players who I believe will be available when the Rams make their picks.

    Here's what I came up with:

    1) Kansas City: Luke Joekel, Jarvis Jones, Dee Milliner
    2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordon, Bjoern Werner
    3) Oakland Raiders: Sharif Floyd, Star Lotulelei, Jarvis Jones
    4) Philadelphia Eagles: Luke Joekel, Eric Fisher, Sharif Floyd
    5) Detroit Lions: Dion Jordon, Dee Milliner, Bjoern Werner
    6) Cleveland Browns: Dion Jordon, Bjoern Werner, Cordarrelle Patterson
    7) Arizona Cardinals: Geno Smith, Luke Joekel, Eric Fisher
    8) Buffalo Bills: Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Damontre Moore
    9) New York Jets: Damontre Moore, Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo
    10) Tennessee Titans: Eric Fisher, Chance Warmack, Lane Johnson
    11) San Diego Chargers: Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack, Dee Milliner
    12) Miami Dolphins: Cordarrelle Patterson, Keenan Allen, Barkevious Mingo
    13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sharif Floyd, Xavier Rhodes, Tyler Eifert
    14) Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, Xavier Rhodes, Codarrelle Patterson
    15) New Orleans Saints: Star Lotulelei, Barkevious Mingo, Xavier Rhodes
    16) St. Louis Rams: D.J. Fluker, Jonathan Cooper, Tyler Eifert
    17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Ezekiel Ansah, Damontre Moore, Sheldon Richardson
    18) Dallas Cowboys: Sheldon Richardson, Jonathan Cooper, Kenny Vaccaro
    19) New York Giants: Ezekiel Ansah, Jonathan Cooper, Eddie Lacy
    20) Chicago Bears: Lane Johnson, D.J. Fluker, Manti Teo
    21) Cincinnati Bengals: D.J. Fluker, Alec Ogletree, Menelik Watson
    22) St. Louis Rams: Tyler Eifert, Matt Elam, Terrance Williams

    Now... anticipating the most likely criticism, I am fully aware that the "top 3" for each team, as well as the Rams' draft board, are open for debate.

    That stated, I think the system I have created has a great deal of logic behind it, and can be used to estimate which players are likely more and less likely to last until picks 16 and 22.

    Using my picks, I think it is clear that the Rams would need to take an OT or OG with the No. 16 pick. If they don't, my "probability machine" indicates that there would be a substantial likelihood that the top available OL at #22 would be guys like Dallas Thomas, Larry Warford, Travis Frederick and Menelik Watson (all of whom I think would be reaches at #22).

    I invite each of you to post your own version of the "probability machine." I'd be curious to see how it plays out for you.
    HUbison, Nick, SWFCRAM and 1 others like this.


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    berg8309's Avatar
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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Man the Saints pick a lot! Kidding, kidding, I get the system, and I like it.

    I do have to wonder about Vaccaro, you only have one team potentially selecting him and it's not the Rams. I thought he was a possible top 20. Has his stock fallen, or you just don't see the fit?

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Interesting to say the least. When we pick at 16 only 12 players have been taken. When we pick at 22 on 16 players have been taken. That said both the players I have us taking are still on the board so it works for me.
    Last edited by Rambos; -03-05-2013 at 03:11 PM.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    According to your list Lane Johnson is available when the Rams pick at 16. Don't you think he would be better value than a guy with questions marks like Fluker?

    Also, even if Johnson was not there I believe that Fish and crew would take J. Cooper over Fluker any day of the week.

    Other than that an interesting concept to say the least....


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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RAMarkable View Post
    According to your list Lane Johnson is available when the Rams pick at 16. Don't you think he would be better value than a guy with questions marks like Fluker?
    What question marks are you referring to?

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by MauiRam View Post
    What question marks are you referring to?
    As was evident by his combine performance he is very slow and does not look like he will be able to pass block speedy edge rusher effectively enough.

    As a result of that we would have to keep a TE on his side or make a guy like Kendricks chip the DE before releasing into his route. We had this same situation last year with Barry Richardson and it caused the offense to bog down too often.

    In reality Fluker appears to be much the same type of player as B. Rich. If we are going to consider taking Fluker in the first we might as well just resign Richardson for a year or two while we continue the search for his replacement.

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    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by berg8309 View Post
    I do have to wonder about Vaccaro, you only have one team potentially selecting him and it's not the Rams. I thought he was a possible top 20. Has his stock fallen, or you just don't see the fit?
    I think there will be a run on safeties, but it will probably occur in the late first through the second round.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RAMarkable View Post
    As was evident by his combine performance he is very slow and does not look like he will be able to pass block speedy edge rusher effectively enough.

    As a result of that we would have to keep a TE on his side or make a guy like Kendricks chip the DE before releasing into his route. We had this same situation last year with Barry Richardson and it caused the offense to bog down too often.

    In reality Fluker appears to be much the same type of player as B. Rich. If we are going to consider taking Fluker in the first we might as well just resign Richardson for a year or two while we continue the search for his replacement.

    WHAT SAY YE?
    Fluker has really long arms, and from I hear thats helpful in pass blocking. Either way, if we get Lane Johnson then that moves Saffold to RT... is Saffold even good at RT?

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Interesting to say the least. When we pick at 16 only 12 players have be taken. When we pick at 22 on 16 players have been taken. That said both the players I have us taking are still on the board so it works for me.
    Obviously, when we pick at 16, 15 players will have been taken (and 21 before pick 22). My system is designed to assess PROBABILITIES. That means that, at pick 16, I count 12 player who probably will be gone. Three others will be gone, but my system does not get a clear read on who they will be (you could, however, count the players listed twice in the first 15 picks to get some idea).

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by RAMarkable View Post
    According to your list Lane Johnson is available when the Rams pick at 16. Don't you think he would be better value than a guy with questions marks like Fluker?
    The only "question mark" I know of regarding Fluker is whether he could play LT. As the Rams need a RT, to me he's the top OT after Joekel and Fisher. Reasonable minds may differ.

    Also, even if Johnson was not there I believe that Fish and crew would take J. Cooper over Fluker any day of the week.
    Again, reasonable minds may differ. Would I be shocked if the Rams took cooper over Fluker? Not at all. But, in my mind, you take a RT before an OT unless its a true elite prospect (i.e. Warmack).

    No matter what your order is, though, I think most would agree that there are six OL who are clear first round prospects (Joekel, Warmack, Fisher, Fluker, Johnson and Cooper), and if the Rams want one of them, they may very well have to pull the trigger with the 16th pick, as all six are likely to be gone by #22.
    Last edited by AvengerRam; -03-05-2013 at 03:18 PM.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Note...

    While I'm happy to discuss the "trees" in this analysis, I'm more interested in hearing what people think of the "forest" (and I'd love to see others' versions).

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    I'm stunned that I don't see Tavon Austin's name anywhere on that list, especially when Keenan Allen didn't even run at the combine and Terrance Williams performed poorly

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Vinnie25 View Post
    I'm stunned that I don't see Tavon Austin's name anywhere on that list, especially when Keenan Allen didn't even run at the combine and Terrance Williams performed poorly
    Rightly or not, I still think that a lot of teams will shy away from taking a WR his size with a top 20 selection.

    Allen's status may be altered significantly, though, if he does not have a good pro day, and that could shake up this analysis.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Obviously, when we pick at 16, 15 players will have been taken (and 21 before pick 22). My system is designed to assess PROBABILITIES. That means that, at pick 16, I count 12 player who probably will be gone. Three others will be gone, but my system does not get a clear read on who they will be (you could, however, count the players listed twice in the first 15 picks to get some idea).
    Yeah it's very good concept. How long would it take you to do all seven rounds for me? LOL

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    Yeah it's very good concept. How long would it take you to do all seven rounds for me? LOL
    I could do it, but I'd have to charge you the same hourly rate I get for legal work.

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