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Thread: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Awesome idea!

    Here is my own machine, which comes to similar conclusions as yours. Once a player has been named three times, I've listed them in caps. Hopefully I didn't screw this up!

    1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, Dee Milliner, Eric Fisher
    2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Sharrif Floyd, Jarvis Jones, Ezekiel Ansah
    3. Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd, Ezekiel Ansah, Star Lotulelei
    4. Philadelphia Eagles: Dee Milliner, Luke Joeckel, Dion Jordan
    5. Detroit Lions: DEE MILLINER, EZEKIEL ANSAH, Bjoern Werner
    6. Cleveland Browns: Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Bjoern Werner
    7. Arizona Cardinals: LUKE JOECKEL, Eric Fisher, Geno Smith
    8. Buffalo Bills: Geno Smith, Cordarrelle Patterson, ERIC FISHER
    9. New York Jets: JARVIS JONES, DION JORDAN, Cordarrelle Patterson
    10. Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack, Star Lotulelei, SHARRIF FLOYD
    11. San Diego Chargers: Lane Johnson, Chance Warmack, Barkevious Mingo
    12. Miami Dolphins: CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, Kenny Vaccaro, BJOERN WERNER
    13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Barkevious Mingo, Xavier Rhodes, Damontre Moore
    14. Carolina Panthers: STAR LOTULELEI, Lane Johnson, Sheldon Richardson
    15. New Orleans Saints: LANE JOHNSON, Damontre Moore, BARKEVIOUS MINGO
    16. St. Louis Rams: CHANCE WARMACK, D.J. Fluker, Kenny Vaccaro
    17. Pittsburgh Steelers: KENNY VACCARO, DAMONTRE MOORE, Xavier Rhodes
    18. Dallas Cowboys: Jonathan Cooper, Sheldon Richardson, Datone Jones
    19. New York Giants: Jonathan Cooper, D.J. Fluker, Tyler Eifert
    20. Chicago Bears: JONATHAN COOPER, D.J. FLUKER, Tyler Eifert
    21. Cincinnati Bengals: Keenan Allen, Datone Jones, Sam Montgomery
    22. St. Louis Rams (f/WAS): Keenan Allen, TYLER EIFERT, SHELDON RICHARDSON

    As with Av's model, the top four tackles and top two guards are off the board by the time the Rams' pick @ 22 comes around. So if the Rams want one of these lineman, they may be rolling the dice if they don't take them with pick #16.

    Other conclusions: I think there's a solid chance that all receivers besides Patterson will be available when the Rams pick at either spot, defensive ends came off the board pretty quickly, I still see Vaccaro as a Top 20 prospect in this class, but I don't believe any other safety was named in the Top 22 let alone eliminated, there's a possibility that Eifert (whom I believe has solidified himself as the top tight end) could be gone by the time the Rams pick @ 22 but it's not an exceptionally strong possibility or even a guarantee.
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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Nicely done, Nick!

    The biggest difference between our "machines" is that you have a higher probability of Warmack being there at #16 (frankly, I hope you're right).

    I also find it very noteworthy that you concluded, as I did, that the Rams will have to take an OL at #16 or risk being shut out of the "Big 6" OL in the draft.

    Now if we could just get Snead's version...
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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    I could do it, but I'd have to charge you the same hourly rate I get for legal work.
    I will wait until I can download the "Probability Machine" APP.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    This is actually a really cool and effective idea.


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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    This is actually a really cool and effective idea.
    Thanks. If you have some free time, I'd like to see your version and others. The more people who chime in on this, the better, as multiple opinions will have the effect of diluting the subjective part of the "machine."

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Black = 1st time on board.
    Blue = 2nd time on board.
    Red = 3rd time on board.

    1) Kansas City: Luke Joeckel, Sharrif Floyd, Dee Milliner
    2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah
    3) Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd, Jarvis Jones, Geno Smith
    4) Philidelphia Eagles: Dee Milliner, Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel
    5) Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, Luke Joeckel, Jarvis Jones
    6) Cleveland Browns: Barkevious Mingo, Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah
    7) Arizona Cardinals: Geno Smith, Eric Fisher, Alec Ogletree
    8) Buffalo Bills: Chance Warmack, Geno Smith, Xavier Rhodes
    9) New York Jets: Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Star Lotulelei
    10) Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack, Bjoern Werner, Sharrif Floyd
    11) San Diego Chargers: Eric Fisher, Barkevious Mingo, Cordarrelle Patterson
    12) Miami Dolphins: Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Eifert, Xavier Rhodes
    13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, Kenny Vaccaro
    14) Carolina Panthers: Desmond Trufant, Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei
    15) New Orleans Saints: Damontre Moore, Sheldon Richardson, Desmond Trufant
    16) St. Louis Rams: Cordarrelle Patterson, Chance Warmack, Eric Fisher
    17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Alec Ogletree, Star Lotulelei, Tank Carradine
    18) Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Cooper, Tavon Austin, Kenny Vaccaro
    19) New York Giants: Lane Johnson, Jonathon Cooper, Manti Te'o
    20) Chicago Bears: Lane Johnson, Manti Te'o, Johnathon Cooper
    21) Cincinnati Bengals: Manti Te'o, Keenan Allen, Bjoern Werner
    22) St. Louis Rams: Tyler Eifert, Tavon Austin, Jonathon Cyprien
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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    16) St. Louis Rams: Chance Warmack
    22) St. Louis Rams: Tavon Austin

    Works for me

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    Black = 1st time on board.
    Blue = 2nd time on board.
    Red = 3rd time on board.

    1) Kansas City: Luke Joeckel, Sharrif Floyd, Dee Milliner
    2) Jacksonville Jaguars: Jarvis Jones, Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah
    3) Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd, Jarvis Jones, Geno Smith
    4) Philidelphia Eagles: Dee Milliner, Dion Jordan, Luke Joeckel
    5) Detroit Lions: Dee Milliner, Luke Joeckel, Jarvis Jones
    6) Cleveland Browns: Barkevious Mingo, Dion Jordan, Ezekiel Ansah
    7) Arizona Cardinals: Geno Smith, Eric Fisher, Alec Ogletree
    8) Buffalo Bills: Chance Warmack, Geno Smith, Xavier Rhodes
    9) New York Jets: Ezekiel Ansah, Barkevious Mingo, Star Lotulelei
    10) Tennessee Titans: Chance Warmack, Bjoern Werner, Sharrif Floyd
    11) San Diego Chargers: Eric Fisher, Barkevious Mingo, Cordarrelle Patterson
    12) Miami Dolphins: Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Eifert, Xavier Rhodes
    13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Xavier Rhodes, Desmond Trufant, Kenny Vaccaro
    14) Carolina Panthers: Desmond Trufant, Sheldon Richardson, Star Lotulelei
    15) New Orleans Saints: Damontre Moore, Sheldon Richardson, Desmond Trufant
    16) St. Louis Rams: Cordarrelle Patterson, Chance Warmack, Eric Fisher
    17) Pittsburgh Steelers: Alec Ogletree, Star Lotulelei, Tank Carradine
    18) Dallas Cowboys: Jonathon Cooper, Tavon Austin, Kenny Vaccaro
    19) New York Giants: Lane Johnson, Jonathon Cooper, Manti Te'o
    20) Chicago Bears: Lane Johnson, Manti Te'o, Johnathon Cooper
    21) Cincinnati Bengals: Manti Te'o, Keenan Allen, Bjoern Werner
    22) St. Louis Rams: Tyler Eifert, Tavon Austin, Jonathon Cyprien
    Interesting viewpoint. You are more confident than Nick and I that some of the "Big 6" OL will last until pick 22, and you agree with Nick that we'll have a reasonable shot at Warmack.

    Nicely done.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Interesting viewpoint. You are more confident than Nick and I that some of the "Big 6" OL will last until pick 22, and you agree with Nick that we'll have a reasonable shot at Warmack.

    Nicely done.
    I think it just sort of played out that way. I don't believe Eric Fisher will last until our pick, so there is that. I do think that we have a good chance at our choice of Warmack, Cooper and Lane Johnson though.


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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by Rambos View Post
    16) St. Louis Rams: Chance Warmack
    22) St. Louis Rams: Tavon Austin

    Works for me
    Get a RT (Loadholt/Volmer) and TE (Cook/Keller) in free agency and now were talking!
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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Ok I'll try a slightly different format. Instead of picking players for each team who I think will go I'm going to use 4 mock drafts. I'm going to use Gil Brandt's, Todd McShay's, Walter Football's and Scott Wright's (in that order from left to right). Then I'm going to use an injury report type assessment on who'll be available when the Rams pick.
    Out - Bold (taken in all 4 mock drafts)
    Doubtful - Red (taken in 3 mock drafts)
    Questionable - Blue (taken in 2)
    Probable - Green (taken in 1)

    I'll then use Av's Rams board to given assess the likelihood of those players still being available.

    Note I've broken the draft in two. The probabilities are re-assessed for the Rams second pick.*

    1. Chiefs - Joeckel/Lotuelei/Joeckel/Geno Smith
    2. Jags - Werner/Joeckel/Jordan/J. Jones
    3. Raiders - Geno Smith/Floyd/Floyd/Lotuelei
    4. Eagles - Fisher/Milliner/Fisher/Joeckel
    5. Lions - Milliner/Ansah/Milliner/Werner
    6. Browns - Mingo/Jordan/Ansah/D. Moore
    7. Cardinals - Barkley/Geno Smith/Geno Smith/Barkley
    8. Bills - Jordan/Fisher/Patterson/Patterson
    9. Jets - Ansah/Mingo/Cooper/Jordan
    10. Titans - Warmack/Cooper/Trufant/Warmack
    11. Chargers - L. Johnson/L. Johnson/L. Johnson/Fisher
    12. Dolphins - Rhodes/Allen/Rhodes/Mingo
    13. Bucs - Fluker/Vaccaro/Lotuelei/Milliner
    14. Panthers - Allen/Richardson/Richardson/Floyd/
    15. Saints - Vaccaro/Ogeltree/Mingo/Hankins
    16. Rams: Doudtful: L. Johnson, Floyd
    Questionable: Patterson, Warmack, Cooper, Allen, Vaccaro, Rhodes,
    Probable: Fluker
    Not Picked: Eifert, Hunter, Elam, Reid, Ertz, T. Williams, Austin

    17. Steelers - Richardson/J. Jones/J. Jones/Te'o
    18. Cowboys - Cooper/Warmack/Fluker/Richardson
    19. Giants - Ogeltree/Eifert/Werner/Ansah
    20. Bears - Eifert/Patterson/Austin/L. Johnson
    21. Bengals - Lacy/Fluker/Vaccaro/Ogeltree
    22. Rams: Doubtful - Warmack, Vaccaro, Fluker, Patterson
    Questionable: Eifert, Allen
    Probable: Austin
    Not Picked: Elam, Reid, Hunter, T. Williams



    *I realised after a while that this was way too complicated but I put too much work into it to scrap it.
    Last edited by TheBritishRam; -03-06-2013 at 05:10 PM.
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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by TheBritishRam View Post
    Ok I'll try a slightly different format. Instead of picking players for each team who I think will go I'm going to use 4 mock drafts. I'm going to use Gil Brandt's, Todd McShay's, Walter Football's and Scott Wright's (in that order from left to right). Then I'm going to use an injury report type assessment on who'll be available when the Rams pick.
    Out - Bold (taken in all 4 mock drafts)
    Doubtful - Red (taken in 3 mock drafts)
    Questionable - Blue (taken in 2)
    Probable - Green (taken in 1)

    I'll then use Av's Rams board to given assess the likelihood of those players still being available.

    Note I've broken the draft in two. The probabilities are re-assessed for the Rams second pick.*

    1. Chiefs - Joeckel/Lotuelei/Joeckel/Geno Smith
    2. Jags - Werner/Joeckel/Jordan/J. Jones
    3. Raiders - Geno Smith/Floyd/Floyd/Lotuelei
    4. Eagles - Fisher/Milliner/Fisher/Joeckel
    5. Lions - Milliner/Ansah/Milliner/Werner
    6. Browns - Mingo/Jordan/Ansah/D. Moore
    7. Cardinals - Barkley/Geno Smith/Geno Smith/Barkley
    8. Bills - Jordan/Fisher/Patterson/Patterson
    9. Jets - Ansah/Mingo/Cooper/Jordan
    10. Titans - Warmack/Cooper/Trufant/Warmack
    11. Chargers - L. Johnson/L. Johnson/L. Johnson/Fisher
    12. Dolphins - Rhodes/Allen/Rhodes/Mingo
    13. Bucs - Fluker/Vaccaro/Lotuelei/Milliner
    14. Panthers - Allen/Richardson/Richardson/Floyd/
    15. Saints - Vaccaro/Ogeltree/Mingo/Hankins
    16. Rams: Doudtful: L. Johnson, Floyd
    Questionable: Patterson, Warmack, Cooper, Allen, Vaccaro, Rhodes,
    Probable: Fluker
    Not Picked: Eifert, Hunter, Elam, Reid, Ertz, T. Williams, Austin

    17. Steelers - Richardson/J. Jones/J. Jones/Te'o
    18. Cowboys - Cooper/Warmack/Fluker/Richardson
    19. Giants - Ogeltree/Eifert/Werner/Ansah
    20. Bears - Eifert/Patterson/Austin/L. Johnson
    21. Bengals - Lacy/Fluker/Vaccaro/Ogeltree
    22. Rams: Doubtful - Warmack, Vaccaro, Fluker, Patterson
    Questionable: Eifert, Allen
    Probable: Austin
    Not Picked: Elam, Reid, Hunter, T. Williams



    *I realised after a while that this was way too complicated but I put too much work into it to scrap it.
    Its an interesting approach (though, as you stated, must have taken a while to compile). In the end, though, we're seeing the same pattern... the Rams need to take an OL with the 16th pick if they want one of the "Big 6." The only way that might change is if several of the OL needy teams ahead of us make sign top FAs (i.e. Jake Long, Andre Smith, Phil Loadholt, Andy Levitre) and then change their draft priorities.

    I plan to re-run my machine closer to the draft. We'll see what it projects then.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Its an interesting approach (though, as you stated, must have taken a while to compile). In the end, though, we're seeing the same pattern... the Rams need to take an OL with the 16th pick if they want one of the "Big 6." The only way that might change is if several of the OL needy teams ahead of us make sign top FAs (i.e. Jake Long, Andre Smith, Phil Loadholt, Andy Levitre) and then change their draft priorities.

    I plan to re-run my machine closer to the draft. We'll see what it projects then.
    Obviously things will change by the Rams activity in free agency. But from everyone's simulations, as you say, the Rams will have to take an offensive lineman with the 16th pick since the better ones won't be around at 22. From the Rams' point of view I'd see the big 6 potential draftees as: Warmack, Cooper, Fluker, Allen, Patterson and Vaccaro. With perhaps Eifert squeezing in to make it 7. If the Rams can get 1 or more of these men in the first round I'd be ecstatic.

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    This is a great initiative. I'm out today but I'll be working on one of these tonight for sure!

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    Re: Av's Round 1 "Probability Machine"

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    I plan to re-run my machine closer to the draft. We'll see what it projects then.
    I'd love to see how your probability machine works out now, Av!

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