Bar-bq's Final 2-Round Projection
Here it is: The cumulative result of all of my efforts this season. What do you think?
The only pick I really have trouble digesting is the Sam Baker selection in round 2. I have this inkling the Eagles will look for a receiver, but not a troublemaker like Kelly.
1. Miami Dolphins- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
The Dolphins are off the clock, and I applaud them for their selection. A great OT, and a cornerstone of their franchise for years to come. Well done!
2. St. Louis Rams- Chris Long, DE, Virginia
There’s been much talk over the past 48 hours concerning the Rams impending selection of Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU. One reporter even claimed to be “100% certain” that the Rams were going to take the Louisiana product. I don’t buy it. At all. Here’s why- The Atlanta Falcons, I think, would absolutely love to get their hands on Dorsey. But in order to do so, Billy Devaney and Co. are tyring to convince the Falcons that they’ll need to swap picks. I don’t think there’s a king’s ransom in it. A third would probably do it. Dorsey is an elaborate smokescreen, and I believe Chris Long is the pick that makes most sense. He’s the surest bet at a real position of need, defensive end.
3. Atlanta Falcons- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
What’s that sound? That’s the collective jeer of Matt Ryan’s friends and family, who will be disappointed he’s not the number selection for a team with no apparent starter at Quarterback. The reason the Falcons take a pass is because they can find equal value for a future starting QB in Chad Henne, Brian Brohm, or Joe Flacco either early in round 2, or late in round 1. Dorsey fills a giant hole in the middle, and purports to be a mainstay there for years. Don’t be shocked if the Falcons sacrifice a third or fourth rounder to swap picks with St. Louis, another potential suitor.
4. Oakland Raiders- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
For weeks I’ve projected Vernon Gholston here. Gholston and McFadden essentially purport to do the same things. They are the two players in this draft who have the greatest potential to make an immediate and obvious impact on their franchises. Basically, I don’t think they can go horribly wrong with either choice. McFadden is the choice because he has the ability to put points on the board whenever he touches the football. Pair him with Javon Walker and Justin Fargas, and you have an offence that is ready to explode, pending the development of last year’s first overall pick JaMarcus Russell. He’d be a huge help to Russell, and to a franchise that has focused, this offseason, on giving him all they help he can get.
5. Kansas City Chiefs- Brandon Albert, OL, Virginia.
Legitimately, the Chiefs may be looking to come away with as many as three starting linemen from this one draft, and the selection of the versatile Albert is the first. He’s the pick for two reasons. Firstly, Albert allows the Chiefs to select another lineman on BPA basis in later rounds, regardless of whether that player happens to be a guard or a tackle, because Albert is so versatile that he can play either position in the NFL. Secondly, the value they’d find with Albert here is greater than the value they’d find with another OT at pick 17, as Ryan Clady, Chris Williams and Jeff Otah could all be gone by that stage.
6. New York Jets- Vernon Gholston, DE, OSU
The Jets could really shake up the draft here by selecting Matt Ryan. Will they? Probably not. It’s no secret the Jets would love Darren McFadden. He makes perfect sense for the franchise. But Vernon Gholston is far from a poor consolation prize. The Jets signed Calvin Pace in the off-season, and Gholston should man the other edge.
*** TRADE *** The New England Patriots trade their first round pick (7th) to the New Orleans Saints in exchange for their first round pick (10th) and third round pick (78th)
7. New Orleans Saints (F/NE)- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Seeing two potential homes for Ellis, the second best DT, and very much a secure top 10 pick in this class, right above them, the Saints trade up to fill what is their greatest hole. Ellis is a great talent who gave his opponents nightmares at the senior bowl, and backed it up with a solid combine. He should be a great fit for the Saints in the middle, allowing new acquisition Jonathan Vilma to prosper.
8. Baltimore Ravens- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
Joy! The Ravens get the franchise signal caller they desire. Baltimore hopes he’ll be the QB, the leader, and the playmaker they’ve been coveting since before the days of Trent Dilfer. He may start from day one after the retirement of Steve McNair, though I wouldn’t advise it. The Ravens, with 4 picks in the first 3 rounds, hope they’ll see themselves back in the playoffs in a year or 2 under their new franchise signal caller.
9. Cincinnati Bengals- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Just about any defensive player fits the bill here, for the Bengals, and Harvey provides a great replacement for Justin Smith coming off of the edge. Ideally, Sedrick Ellis would be the pick, but in my mind, the Bengals need all of the selections they can get, as they begin to overhaul what looks like their entire team.
10. New England Patriots (F/NO)- Keith Rivers, OLB, USC
The Patriots move down and still grab a great prospect in Rivers, the top ‘backer in this class. Rivers knows how to win, and has played alongside a stellar supporting cast at ‘SC. The Patriots could look to utilise him as a starter at ILB or at OLB in their 3-4 alignments, as all of their starters are staring down the barrel of being the wrong side of 30 years old, if they aren’t already so. Leodis McKelvin is the other obvious choice here, but the Pats have made their secondary work with Troy Brown in their secondary in the past. The depth in this year’s corner class allows them to pass.
***TRADE*** The Buffalo Bills trade their first round pick (11th) to the Chicago Bears for their First Round pick (14th) and their Third Round pick (90th)
11. Chicago Bears (F/BUF)- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
The Bears are presently without a franchise tackle, and Clady is exactly that. They sacrifice their second third round pick to move up for him. Whilst the Bears may be forced to settle with Otah at pick 14, viewed as the best run blocker in this class, but a tackle requiring assistance with his pass protection, the Bears pull the trigger and end up with a franchise tackle to boot. Clady’s value is fairly spot-on here, too. Look for Rex Grossman to be replaced in the second round.
12. Denver Broncos- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt.
The Broncos have a legitimate need at OT after trading away George Foster and finding little value thereafter. Jay Cutler struggled with little protection, and the selection of his former Vanderbilt team-mate Williams should seek to correct that, especially if they have an established working relationship from their collegiate years.
13. Carolina Panthers- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
This isn’t an ideal situation for Carolina, but it does offer them some flexibility in terms of what they do with Travelle Wharton. Otah is more of a project at left tackle, and a better fit on the right side, so chances are he could put his great run-blocking capabilities to best use at guard for a season, with Wharton outside, before switching the two around the following season. This should also allow Carolina to reconstruct their power running game under John Fox.
14. Buffalo Bills (F/Chi)- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
The Bills trade down a few slots and still land the player they desire. The general stock of the WR’s in this class isn’t great, better value can be had in the second. McKelvin, however, is great value at pick 14, and figures to start immediately opposite Terrence McGee. If the pick isn’t McKelvin, it’s Michigan St.’s Devin Thomas.
15. Detroit Lions- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Derrick Harvey would have been ideal, and Jerod Mayo appears to be soaring up the boards. Both would be great fits for Rod Marinelli’s Cover 2 defense. Mendenhall gets the nod because the Lions really have nothing at Running back, and I can’t imagine Detroit putting themselves in the situation wherein they require a starting Quarterback AND a Running back in the same draft. Mendenhall’s value is probably slightly higher than Mayo’s here, too.
16. Arizona Cardinals- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St
Rodgers is the corner with the most upside in this draft, much like his cousin two years ago, and fills the Cardinals most pressing need. I had Mike Jenkins to the Cardinals in my last mock, and wouldn’t be surprised if they went for the more solid alternative.
17. Kansas City Chiefs- Mike Jenkins, CB, FSU
The Chiefs acquire my favourite corner in this draft via a trade for Jared Allen. Their pick in the second round facilitates them to fill this need with a player like USC’s Lawrence Jackson, and proceed to select Offensive Linemen and wide receivers in the third. The Chiefs have a huge need in the secondary, and this pick facilitates them to solidify their unit for years to come.
*** TRADE*** The Houston Texans trade their 1st round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in exchange for their 1st round pick (20th) 4th round pick.
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (F/HOU)- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan State
With the top corners off the board, and Thomas, the top WR in the class, a threat to go to Philadelphia at pick 19, the Bucs, perilously thin at the position, make the move up. They were unable to draft WR Calvin Johnson last season, and though he was a one year wonder, Thomas could end up a steal here.
19. Philadelphia Eagles- Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
Brian Dawkins is getting on in years, and Sean Consdine is still nothing to write home about, making Phillips a great choice at pick number nineteen. I believe he’s a solid top 15-20 prospect, probably not cut from the same cloth as Ed Reed or Sean Taylor, but looks a better prospect than Brandon Merriweather did this time last year. Offensive Tackle would be ideal, and it would not shock me at all to see the Eagles pull the trigger on Boston College’s Godser Cherilus. Wide Receiver is also an option.
20. Houston Texans (F/TB)- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
Without any real other direction to turn (save perhaps Jerod Mayo) the Texans turn their attention to the Running back position. It’s really a poor scenario for them, as the top Corners, Backs, and Linemen are all off the board. Stewart is basically the best player left at a position of need. His stock could be much higher, pending his injury history, but he could be a key player in a backfield rotation for the Texans in his first year, easing into NFL acclimation.
21. Washington Redskins-.Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
What does it tell you when even the Head Coach, almost the entire defensive staff, and even the Quarterback comes to watch you work out? It tells you Phillip Merling is going to be rushing the passer in Washington.
22. Dallas Cowboys- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
Not wanting Jones, the last true RB with a first round grade left, to slip into the arms of Seattle, Jacksonville or San Diego, the Cowboys take Felix Jones here to be the Speedy to Marion Barber’s Gonzales. The loss of Julius Jones, and Garret’s prior success with a two back system makes the agile Jones the pick.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers- Godser Cherilus, OT, Boston College.
The Steelers will be looking for the best OL available, and Cherilus’ ability as a potentially dominant right tackle should more than suffice. This move allows OT Willie Colon to move back inside to guard.
24. Tennessee Titans- DeSean Jackson, WR, California
DeSean Jackson is the pick here, even though Vince Young, I’ve no doubt, is campaigning hard for his for Texas’ team-mate Limas Sweed. Letting Jackson the explosive Jackson loose alongside the explosive Vince Young makes (obviously) for double the explosions.
25. Seattle Seahawks- Kentwaan Balmer, DT, NC State
With the best backs all off the board, the Hawks turn their attention to the best defensive tackle available. Balmer is the clear #3 DT in this class, and looks to be a mound in the middle. If they’re looking for an impact player along their DL, the cut off line lies right below.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars- Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
Here’s a pick I struggled immensely with (This pick and the Texans pick have taken the longest to date). With Clint Ingram an average at best player on one side, Mike Peterson the wrong side of 30, and missing 6 starts last year through injury, Mayo, is the pick. I would have liked to have gone defensive tackle, but the Seahawks got in first, as the Texans pick sort of forced my hand. Mayo is BPA at this point, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him go earlier.
27. San Diego Chargers- Reggie Smith, S/CB, Oklahoma
Smith’s versatility makes him the pick over the fast rising Tryell Johnson for the 27th overall pick. There aren’t too many holes to pick in the Charger’s defense, but Marlon McCree left and so did Drayton Florence, and Smith looks to be able to come in and play at FS or CB, in a secondary already boasting 2 solid round one picks, in Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie.
28. Dallas Cowboys- Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona. The Cowboys need a nickel corner to become a future starter, and I have Cason as a slightly better player right now than Flowers, King and Smith, all of whom should be available about this time.
29. San Francisco *****- Dan Connor, ILB, Penn St.
Mike Martz has been able to make his offense work with guys like Mike Furrey as top targets, but there is little depth behind veteran Isaac Bruce. However, as the ***** pick early in round two, they can hold off and still find value. Connor should be a starter at linebacker and a team leader well into the future, consolidating what looks to be a promising linebacker core.
30. Green Bay Packers- Aquib Talib, CB, Kansas
The best corner available, here, Talib slides a little due to character concerns, but provides valuable depth to a unit which boasts two starters exceeding 30 years of age, and little else behind them.
31. New York Giants- Tyrell Johnson, S, Arkansas St.
The Giants lost safety Gibril Wilson to the free agent market, and Johnson is a fast riser. Two safeties in the first round may seem like a stretch, but you can make a case for the Giants having legitimate need at the position, and need fitting value at the very last selection of round 1.
32. Miami Dolphins- Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
The Dolphins opted against selecting OSU’s Vernon Gholston in round one, and Groves looks to be able to fill the same role at the top of round 2.
33. St. Louis Rams- Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Excellent selection for the Rams, who have holes to fill at Receiver. Sweed’s value is too great at this point to pass up for Brown or Baker, both of whom come from zone-blocking schemes in college.
34. Atlanta Falcons- Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Atlanta fans rejoice in finding their future starting quarterback. Brohm has all the tools to be successful, and was punished for playing on a poor team at Louisville in the wake of Hurricane Bobby.
35. Kansas City Chiefs- Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC
Jared Allen had departed, and Jackson seems to be perfect value at this point. He’ll take over opposite former first round pick Tamba Hali
36. New York Jets- Brandon Flowers, CB, Virginia Tech.
The Jets look to have hit on Darelle Revis, but with little opposite him, the physical Flowers is the pick.
37. Atlanta Falcons- Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech.
Brown played in a zone blocking scheme in College, which should translate well to Atlanta’s zone-blocking scheme in the pros. Look for Brown to be the left tackle of the future.
38. Baltimore Ravens- Tracy Porter, CB, Indianna
Having picked up a Quarterback in round one, the Ravens turn their attention to the secondary, where Porter is good value.
39. San Fancisco *****- James Hardy, WR, Indianna
Big and Fast. Sounds like a good fit for a Mike Martz offense.
***TRADE*** The New Orleans Saints trade their second round pick (40th overall) to the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for their Second round pick (49th) their 4th round pick (115th) and a future fourth round pick.
40. Philadelphia Eagles (F/NO)- Sam Baker, OT, USC
The Eagles watch Baker slide, and trade up to select him. He’s a nice OT consolation prize in round 2.
41. Buffalo Bills-. Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Originally projected as a target in round one, the Bills land a #2 receiver in the second round.
42. Denver Broncos- Trevor Laws, DT, NC State
After the failure of the Jimmy Kennedy experiment (and a collective “we told you so” from the entire Ram nation) The Broncos grab the versatile Laws to address what is their most pressing need.
43. Carolina Panthers- Chad Henne, QB, Michigan
The Panthers don’t really have a starter outside of Delhomme, and Michigan’s Henne could be the guy for years to come. They’re certainly not void of blockers.
44. Chicago Bears- Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware
Bye Bye, Rex.
45. Detroit Lions- Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
As the Lions missed out on Derrick Harvey in round one, they add Calais Campbell here, who could be a terror in the Cover 2.
46. Cincinnati Bengals- Donnie Avery, WR, Houston
As long as he doesn’t have any prior convictions, right?
47. Minnesota Vikings- DaJuan Morgan, S, NC State
Lack of depth behind Darren Sharper makes Morgan the pick here.
48. Atlanta Falcons- Patrick Lee, CB, Auburn
Another of my 2008 favorites, Lee could be a very good corner in the wake of DeAngelo hall, as the re-building process continues.
49. New Orleans Saints (F/PHI)- Justin King, CB, Penn St.
The Saints passed on Leodis McKelvin in round one, but land a very good nickel corner in King in round two. Will be touted as heir-apparent to Mike McKenzie.
50. Arizona Cardinals- Ray Rice, RB, Rutgers
Missing out by one on Mendenhall may have been a blessing in disguise.
51. Washington Redskins- Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Manningham is big by comparison, with decent speed, providing QB Jason Campbell with extra options outside of Grumpy, Sneezy and Doc…I mean Moss, Randle El and Thrash.
52. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Charles Godfrey, CB, Iowa
They missed out on the best corners in round one, and they hope Godfrey is the second coming of Ronde Barber.
53. Pittsburgh Steelers- Curtis Lofton, ILB, Oklahoma
Big hitter could be a big-time player inside.
***TRADE*** The Tennessee Titans Trade their second round pick (54th) to the Green Bay Packers for their second round pick (56th) and their fourth round pick (128th)
54. Green Bay Packers (F/TEN)- Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue
The Pack nip ahead of the waiting Seahawks for the best TE in the draft.
55. Seattle Seahawks- Fred Davis, TE, USC
Keller was pulled from their clutches, so Davis becomes Jeremy Steven’s replacement.
56. Tennessee Titans (F/GB)- Dre Moore, DT, Maryland
Another valuable addition who can benefit greatly from the wisdom that comes from playing alongside HeadStomp Haynesworth.
57. Miami Dolphins- Beau Bell, ILB, UNLV
A true thumper and one of my favourites this year. Zach Thomas II.
58. Jacksonville Jaguars- Cliff Avril, DE, Purdue
A speed rusher for the outside.
59. Indianapolis Colts- Tavares Gooden, LB, Miami
The bid to replace Cato June continues. Gooden should be a great fit for their cover 2.
60. Green Bay Packers- Oniel Cousins, OT, UTEP
A player to develop behind Taucsher and Clifton. Will become a solid starter.
61. Dallas Cowboys- Andre Caldwell, WR, Florida
Patrick Crayton and T.O have been fantastic, but you have to wonder when their time is up, and they suffer a Terry Glenn-like breakdown. Florida’s Caldwell then becomes their go-to guy.
62. New England Patriots- Chilo Rachal, OG, USC
Their OL was molested by the Giants in the superbowl. It’s never too late to add quality depth.
63. New York Giants- Tyvon Branch, CB, Connecticut
A young player to start when Sam Madison retires.
(And for my good Friends at ClanRam)
64. Miami Dolphins- Can select whomever they like, provided it isn't the prospect below
65. St. Louis Rams- Carl Nicks, OT, Nebraska
May have some character issues, but great value for Pace's successor down here.
Re: Bar-bq's Final 2-Round Projection
Carl Nicks is Pace's successor?
Re: Bar-bq's Final 2-Round Projection
If Limas Sweed falls to the second round and the Rams grab him, that's like getting a first round pick. That would be stunning and for me would make the draft....no matter WHO we pick in Round 1.
Re: Bar-bq's Final 2-Round Projection
You bet your sweet bippy.
Originally Posted by PossumBoy9
I'm very high on Carl Nicks (I don't know what it is with these Husker round 2/3 prospects- last year it was Stewart Bradley) and I think his value is too great at that stage to pass him up.
But if that's the only problem you have with it...