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Bar-bq's "Less Than One Week To Go" One Round, Trade Inclusive Mock Projection
Here's the trade inclusive first round I've been working on. There trades I've projected, I think are accurate, and have a fairly significant effect on the way the draft falls. There's an explanation for each changed pick. For all others, see the explantions from my mock yesterday, posted here Bar-bq's "One Week To Go" Two Round Mock Projection
For the record, we still pick up Limas Sweed from Texas in the second, though I haven't listed it. Our picks don't change at all, but I thought you all might like another look at how the draft may go with some projected trades.
The Kansas City Cheifs rades round one, pick 5, round 3, pick 3, and round 5, pick 1 with the Baltimore Ravens for Round one, pick 8, and round 2, pick 7.
The New England Patriots trade round one, pick 7, round 2, pick 31 and round 5 pick 31 with the New Orleans Saints for round one, pick 10 and round 2, pick 9.
The Buffalo Bills trade round one, pick 11 to the Chicago Bears for Round one, pick 14 and round 3 pick 27
1. Miami Dolphins- Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. St. Louis Rams- Chris Long, DE, Virginia
3. Atlanta Falcons- Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
4. Oakland Raiders- Vernon Gholston, DE, OSU
5. Baltimore Ravens (From Kansas City)- Matt Ryan, QB, Boston CollegeI think the Ravens get nervous around here. There are two potential suitors for Ryan at picks 5 and 6 in the New York Jets and the Chiefs themselves. The Chiefs realise a greater need at Offensive Line, grabbing an extra second round pick, to allow them to find better value along the OL and at CB thereafter. The Ravens consider themselves primed to make a solid run into the playoffs in a year or two under their new Franchise QB. They still have 3 picks in the first 3 rounds, with the potential to still pick up a solid player at a position of need (for example, Cornerback Tracy Porter) early in round 3.
6. New York Jets- Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
7. New Orleans Saints- Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Seeing two potential homes for Ellis, the second best DT, and very much a secure top 10 pick in this class, right above them, the Saints trade up to fill what is their greatest hole. The Patriots, of course, are glad to move down, as greater value can be had at pick 10 with USC’s Keith Rivers or Florida’s Derrick Harvey. Ellis is a great talent who gave his opponents nightmares at the senior bowl, and backed it up with a solid combine. He should be a great fit for the Saints in the middle, allowing new acquisition Jonathan Vilma to prosper. Look for Cornerback to be addressed with their second pick through a Tracy Porter or Antuan Molden.
8. Kansas City Chiefs- Brandon Albert, OL, Virginia
This move gives Kansas City an extra second round pick to allow them to address their positions of need more proficiently, whilst also being able to select a desired player at a position that is slightly more appropriate in terms of his value, and the money they’d like to spend.
9. Cincinnati Bengals- Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
Just about any defensive player fits the bill here, for the Bengals, and Harvey provides a great replacement for Justin Smith coming off of the edge. Ideally, Sedrick Ellis would be the pick, but in my mind, the Bengals need all the picks they can get, as they begin to overhaul what looks like their entire team.
10. New England Patriots- Keith Rivers, LB, USC
The Patriots move down and still grab a great prospect in Rivers, the top ‘backer in this class. Rivers knows how to win, and has played alongside a stellar supporting cast at ‘SC. The Patriots could look to utilise him as a starter at ILB or at OLB in their 3-4 alignments, as all of their starters are staring down the barrel of being the wrong side of 30 years old, if they aren’t already so.
11. Chicago Bears- Ryan Clady, OT, Boise St.
The Bears are presently without a franchise tackle, and Clady is exactly that. They sacrifice their second third round pick to move up for him. Buffalo are able to move down and find better value for the players they’re targeting. Whilst the Bears may be forced to settle with Otah at 14, viewed as the best run blocker in this class, but a tackle requiring assistance with his pass protection, the Bears pull the trigger and end up with a franchise tackle to boot. Clady’s value is fairly spot-on here, too. Look for Rex Grossman to be replaced in the second round.
12. Denver Broncos- Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
A new left tackle for a franchise with a fairly significant need for one? Sounds like just what the doctor ordered to me. Williams gets the nod also because of his past experience with Cutler in the Vanderbilt program.
13. Carolina Panthers- Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh
This isn’t an ideal situation for Carolina, but it does offer them some flexibility in terms of what they do with Travelle Wharton. Otah is more of a project at left tackle, so chances are he could put his great run-blocking capabilities to best use at guard for a season, with Wharton outside, before switching the two around the following season. This should also allow Carolina to reconstruct their power running game under john Fox.
14. Buffalo Bills- Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy.
The Bills trade down a few slots and still land the player they desire. The general stock of the WR’s in this class isn’t great, better value can be had in the second. McKelvin, however, is great value at pick 14, and figures to start immediately opposite Terrence McGee.
15. Detroit Lions- Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
With no great value here at DE or along the OL, the Lions turn their attention to the probable best offensive player available, who also fits the bill at a position of need. Mendenhall had an outstanding season, looks to be able to take the ball inside and out, and fills the gaping hole left after the departure of Kevin Jones.
16. Arizona Cardinals- Mike Jenkins, CB, FSU
After seeing Mendenhall pulled from their clutches, the Cardinals turn their attention to their greatest need, addressing it with the player who is among my favourites in this draft. Everything about Jenkins screams solid. He’s by no means excellent, but there’s no real area where you can fault him terribly. He just seems like a Cardinals sort of player to me. An ideal fit for them at this pick.
17. Minnesota Vikings- Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
18. Houston Texans- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee St.
19. Philadelphia Eagles- Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Devin Thomas, WR, Michigan St.
With poor value in the way of cornerbacks, the Buccaneers turn their attention to the likely #1 wideout in the draft. There’s not much depth to the Tampa receiving core, and Thomas looks to start sooner, rather than later.
21. Washington Redskins- Kentwaan Balmer, DT, North Carolina.
22. Dallas Cowboys- Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas
23. Pittsburgh Steelers- Godser Cherilus, OT, Boston College.
24. Tennessee Titans- DeSean Jackson, WR, California
25. Seattle Seahawks- Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon
26. Jacksonville Jaguars- Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
27. San Diego Chargers- Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee
28. Dallas Cowboys- Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona.
29. San Francisco *****- Dan Connor, ILB, Penn St.
30. Green Bay Packers- Aquib Talib, CB, Kansas
A better talent than Brandon Flowers, whom I had here previously, the Packers take a chance on correcting the character issues of Talib. He becomes their nickel corner for the time being, to develop into an eventual starter behind Al Harris and Charles Woodson.
31. New York Giants- Reggie Smith, S/CB, Oklahoma
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