Bernie: 50% chance Dorsey, 25% chance Long

[RamWraith]

As I type this tonight (Tuesday at 11:35 p.m.) I would handicap it this way, and my speculation is informed, and the result of reporting...

and what I will do is update this when warranted, because this is a fluid situation... for anyone to report or state that the Rams are locked in on one thing at this point is ludicrous, because they are not.

They have time on their hands to examine and reexamine all options. They'd be fools to not take advantage of it.

But as of now:

Glenn Dorsey, 50 percent chance
Chris Long, 25 percent chance
Trade down, 15 percent chance
Vernon Gholston, 10 percent chance

I'm probably being too high on the "trade down" aspect... Rams at least for now are taking a hard-line position on it -- and downplaying the possibility, saying that they want a special player at No. 2... is this posturing in an effort to get interested teams to offer more? Sure, it could be. The Rams should be playing that kind of game, and see what the bait might lure.

--B

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Rams are smart to be playing some poker now....

but I do know this: Dorsey is the top-rated player on their board.

Just don't ask me if I saw their board.

I can't comment.



--B

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Devaney is in control... but he's sincerely interested in what the others desire. He isn't running a dictatorship. But coaches won't call the shots on this one if push comes to shove (which it won't; they'll be unified).

--B

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Regarding the PFW article--There's no big internal division, sorry.

--B

[tomahawk247]

Just don't ask me if I saw their board.

I can't comment.



--B

is that because when you give the truthful answer of "No, i actually havent seen the board" everyone will know everything you just said is actually made up rubbish?

[laram0]

Originally Posted by RamWraith

As I type this tonight (Tuesday at 11:35 p.m.) I would handicap it this way, and my speculation is informed, and the result of reporting...

and what I will do is update this when warranted, because this is a fluid situation... for anyone to report or state that the Rams are locked in on one thing at this point is ludicrous, because they are not.

They have time on their hands to examine and reexamine all options. They'd be fools to not take advantage of it.

But as of now:

Glenn Dorsey, 50 percent chance
Chris Long, 25 percent chance
Trade down, 15 percent chance
Vernon Gholston, 10 percent chance

I think it's more like:

Glenn Dorsey, smokescreen
Chris Long, 33.4%
Trade down, 33.3%
Vernon Gholston, 33.3%

That's my thoughts and I'm sticking to it.

[general counsel]

i feel VERY strongly that the rams know exactly who they are going to take if they dont trade the pick. They have had months to figure it out, they arent going to tell anyone, but internally, i believe they know.

ramming speed to all

general counsel

[Ramer]

I agree with you laram0. I think Dorsey is a smoke screen.

[keith m. klink]

Dorsey is the bait the RAMS are trying to keep stiff lipped about . Yes they really wanted C.LONG and they really wanted J. LONG and they are really leaning toward DORSEY and, and , and , .... YUP , this is the year of LINEHANS last shot . If the RAMS somehow pull off a draft ALA-KAZAM KAPOOF, and make either the FALCONS or the SAINTS play each other for DORSEY . I think that the SAINTS are the bait to get ATLANTA to jump up and take DORSEY " who the SAINTS WANT BAD " . This leaves the RAMS take C.LONG at #3 , who they wanted all along " of course " and saves then a little money , fill the most needed position and gain a pick or 2 .

All this can be yours if the price is right . And LINEHAN and DEVANEY will go down in history as the best RAMS draft ever .

And i don't think ATLANTA is as ready to sit and wait as some may think . i think they will be getting ready to make some noise .

[txramsfan]

hehehehe, I will have to admit the part of the draft I love is us fans trying to spin how we perceive the draft to fit what our team is doing. How is taking the best DT in decades a smokescreen?

I don't get it. I get the "back and to the right" in JFK but I don't get "Dorsey is a smokescreen".

[RebelYell]

Bernie has a history of repeating the Rams front office spins and smokescreens. I wouldn't put too much weight into his projections. They are very different than RK's or Jim Thomas'.

JMO but Dorsey is being used to spur a trade bait. Personally, I just don't believe anything coming out of Rams park the week of the draft because you know it is spin talk (which I'm 100% fine with).

The first time Dorsey misses a practice the murmurings of "what do you expect when you draft a guy who could never stay healthy in the physically easier college game?"

[harrydog]

Originally Posted by Ramer

I agree with you laram0. I think Dorsey is a smoke screen.

Maybe, but I also think it's wishfull thinking since most people hope that he's just a smokescreen

[Rambos]

If ther Rams can get Atlanta to move up and still get Long, that would be great.

[1st & Goal]

What if! Let's say Atlanta does come offering to swap positions & 1 or 2 of their second round picks. Do you do it? There is a possibility that Atlanta could not draft Dorsey and take Ryan instead. If they think the Ravens may come calling to move to the 2 hole. We could end up trading places with Atlanta, getting extra picks & still be in a position to pick Dorsey or C. Long.

[HUbison]

Originally Posted by 1st & Goal

What if! Let's say Atlanta does come offering to swap positions & 1 or 2 of their second round picks. Do you do it? There is a possibility that Atlanta could not draft Dorsey and take Ryan instead. If they think the Ravens may come calling to move to the 2 hole. We could end up trading places with Atlanta, getting extra picks & still be in a position to pick Dorsey or C. Long.

Truth be told, I'd swap with Atlanta for just a 7th round pick! One spot lower salary and we still get Chris Long? Bring it!

Hence the reason they HAVE to let the world know they want Dorsey.......whether they do or not. Is that a smokescreen? Not necessarily. Dorsey is an outstanding player and very well could be the pick. However, if they shout the virtues of Long, what trade benefit is there?

[Falconator]

I agree that Glen Dorsey is the "smokescreen". Think about it:

1. there is ZERO "action" on Chris Long. Nobody is calling Rams wanting to trade up for Chris Long or Vernon Gholston.
2. Rams know the Falcons like Dorsey and now that Saints are expressing interest, their is "action" on Glen Dorsey.
3. the only other player there might be "action" on at #2 is Darren McFadden and a very, very small possibility of Matt Ryan.

sooooooo........if your the Rams and want to solicit trades for your #2 pick, the last thing in the world you would do if you are DeVaney/Linnehan is "tip your hand" that you like Chris Long. That is why you hear "nothing" out of Rams Park about Chris Long and you hear pure "gushing" over Glen Dorsey.

Obviously the "ideal" scenario for the Rams is to trade w/ Atlanta, get an extra pick and still select who they wanted all along - Chris Long. I just think the Falcons are "too smart" to fall for this ruse. We shall see. I think Matt Ryan is now #2 on Falcons board and they are also open to trading down - so I put odds on Falcons trading up with Rams at 10%. In other words, I think its just not going to happen.


This leaves two other possible scenarios for Rams:

1. Saints - they are the most motivated to trade up and it would probably take #10(1st), #40(2nd) and 2009's 1st rounder. Will they give this much up? doubtful. If they did, I think Derrick Harvey would be the target for the Rams. It would probably be 60% chance Harvey would be available.
2. Jets - they are probably not too motivated but their target would be Darren McFadden. To move up the four slots it would take the Jets #6(1st) and #35(2nd) - i think that is all they would be willing to give up. Would Gholston or Chris Long fall to #6? Probably Gholston would but I doubt Chris Long would fall. With McFadden being off the board for the Raiders - they probably would take Chris Long. Also, their is a "decent" chance that Chiefs might take the DE that Raiders leave on board. So, if you trade with Jets, you might have to look at another need or still end up with Derrick Harvey(100% chance he would be available)

Anyway, that is the way I see it. The Falcons are not going to "tie up" a 2nd rounder to move up one spot - not when they could be happy with selecting Matt Ryan at #3........if you guys trade down with anybody other than Falcons/Raiders - then its very good chance you miss out on Chris Long...........

If Rams agreed to take like a 4th rounder from the Falcons where the cost was not too steep, the Falcons might would agree to it - of course, it would not really be a "fair offer" but if Rams are hellbent on taking Chris Long anyway, they might go for it - saves the team money and gets them a decent draft pick for their troubles - this is really the only way I see the Falcons trading up.

Good luck to you RamFans.....

[HUbison]

Originally Posted by BM

my speculation is informed, and the result of reporting...

As informed as you throwing Brown under the bus a few months ago with what turned out to be a non-story?

[Mooselini]

Originally Posted by laram0

I think it's more like:

Glenn Dorsey, smokescreen
Chris Long, 33.4%
Trade down, 33.3%
Vernon Gholston, 33.3%

That's my thoughts and I'm sticking to it.

Thank God someone agrees with me.

With all the Dorsey craze, I honestly think we're just trying to get Atlanta to budge.