The "Bet Your Life" Theory of 1st Rounders

In this discussion of drafting - I borrow from ESPN's Simmons in discussing the top NBA players and evaluation.

In football a 1st rounder is precious and bad use of them can cripple a club for years (e.g. the Rams bad interior defense) because 1st's are so expensive that it is hard to upgrade that position for years if you sign an unproductive player in the 1st.

Thus, the key criteria for the 1st should be - if you had to bet your life on who would be a productive NFL player (not upside, not potential), someone who will soon be a starter and a consistent and potential star performer - who would that be? If being wrong would cost you your life?

1. P. Willis, LB
2. J. Anderson, DE
3. L. Landry S
4. A. Okoye DE


I'd worry about filling need 2 - 4 rounds.

This is now my new board.
Okoye DT

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Originally Posted by Facing-The-Giant

some will say we need amobi others say he is the next jimmy kennedy. I know I want him, but it is up to the rams organization. they will take the best player available and we will go from there.

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Sure you're not confusing Okoye with the Kennedy-Comparisons that have been drawn to Branch?

I would not bet my life on any player taken in any round. You just don't know period.

if i had to bet my life , and my life only , without hesitation , WILLIS , with LANDRY very very close second.

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Originally Posted by ramhard

In this discussion of drafting - I borrow from ESPN's Simmons in discussing the top NBA players and evaluation.

4. A. Okoye DE

Okoye DT

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He should be #1 and I think he is a DT, not DE.

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Originally Posted by Bar-bq

Sure you're not confusing Okoye with the Kennedy-Comparisons that have been drawn to Branch?

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That's what I was thinking also.

Okoye for sure.

My four best bets in order would be
1) Landry
2) Okoye
3) Willis
4) Anderson

I agree that the 1st round is very important and a very risky procedure. The 1st round is especialy risky for teams like the Rams who are on the borderline of taking the next step into the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by timsum1283

My four best bets in order would be
1) Landry
2) Okoye
3) Willis
4) Anderson

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I want the Rams to take one of the above mentioned. I believe that they have the best chance of making a 1st year impact. Don't want anything to do with Carriker or Branch.


Funny how 3 of the 4 come from the best college football conference out there.

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Don't want anything to do with Carriker or Branch.

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I kind of understand Branch, why not Carriker?

I go with

1. Landry
2. Willis
3. Anderson
4. Okoye

Thats the way I see it. I believe Okoye will take much longer to develop....

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Originally Posted by Rambos

I kind of understand Branch, why not Carriker?

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I just feel that he doesn't have the talent like the previous mentioned players. Plus, if St. Louis drafts him it sounds like it would be to move him inside. Does he even have any experience on the inside? If so, has he had the same level of sucess? I guess the same could be said for Willis (if they would want to move him outside).

I think that the 3 of 4 on the short list are established playmakers. Something the Rams have lacked as of lately.

No player ever drafted by any football team in the history of pigskin has ever been a sure thing (ie. life-bettable). Too many #1 overall picks have gone kapoot.

Sure there is always uncertainty - but it's just like in playing poker - you can put your money in when the odds are 20-1 in your favor, or 100-1 against. You can win or lose in both hands, but you'll much more likely to win THIS hand on the former, and over time will be much better. The Leaf comparison was apt.. do you draft Leaf who had all that 'upside' and superior athletic ability but had only done it for one year - or Manning a more proven and seasoned QB and less of a risk. I feel the same thing here at 1 - get the seasoned player who had done it - not someone you're moving from DE to hopefully inside (Carriker), not someone who is 19 and you hope will blossom in a few years (Okoye), not someone who you wonder about their motivation (Branch). Sure each of those may be winning hands, but let someone else make those bets. I'll take Willis, Anderson, and Landry over those three and draft a DT in the 2nd.