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Thread: Career Longevity Factors Into Early Picks

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Career Longevity Factors Into Early Picks

    Even with free agency, a GM's ideal scenario is to draft a star and keep him for most of his career, at least the prime part.

    Because of the differences in position, the value of offensive and defensive linemen, and linebackers is elevated due to the length of time those guys can play at a Pro Bowl level.

    If a team hits on a running back, he's likely to have a 7 or 8 year run if he stays relatively healthy. Staying totally healthy and not missing games even when young is about impossible for a back.

    On the other hand, if you hit on a franchise QB, he'll be hitting his best days when that back is finshed. An example is Steven Jackson versus Philip Rivers and Eli Manning, all 2004 picks

    You can have a late 30s passer and have one of the best still, which maximizes that high pick.

    Similarly, a great offensive lineman will be going strong at 35. You draft one great one, an Orlando Pace, and you are good there in every draft for a decade.

    Defensive tackles also can be cornerstones of a team a comparitively long long time.

    Pass rushers usually are at their best till about 33, only a bit less than the DT group, and still a solid early value, longevity wise.

    Top Linebackers, due to the experience factor making them better as the physical part lessens, also can stay around a long time.

    Cornerbacks get pushed up because of the big need every year because those guys are often seeing big declines soon after age 30. They are one spot where the longevity thing doesn't have a big effect, due to the shortage of truly great corners.

    Wide receivers not only have relatively short primes, they like passers also can take two or three years to hit their stride, sometimes more, which lowers their overall value. They are also more likely to have one major injury turn them into shadows of what they were
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    Same for tight ends, who go downhill even quicker than the wide outs due to the punishment they take.

    Safeties get hurt alot, often playing special teams, which ends up severely shortening their shelf life as well, leaving teams seemingly always needing them in every draft.

    While need and the talent level are obviously the main factors in who teams draft early, there is no doubt that the board is effected by the longevity factor of the position.
    laram0 likes this.

    Barry Waller

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    laram0 is offline Superbowl MVP
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    Re: Career Longevity Factors Into Early Picks

    Interesting...so is this a make or break year for Brian Quick?

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    Re: Career Longevity Factors Into Early Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by laram0 View Post
    Interesting...so is this a make or break year for Brian Quick?
    It has to be. As a former high 2nd round pick who has shown flashes of greatness few and far in between and is entering his third year or so, he needs to show improvement or he will be cut. You cant simply expect a team to keep you around for more than 2-3 years when others are drafted at the same position or lower in the draft and are producing far better numbers.

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