Losing that second round pick seems huge, but I'm sure everyone will tell me how wrong I am to think that.
I'm about the most critical Rams fan in recent years, but I can't imagining it going any better.
If we didn't trade up, we lose Austin. Period. He's the most talented skill player in the draft and can move the chains out of the slot. If we pass on him we fall to the next tier of guys, a bunch of question marks who are all "projects". Second, Ogletree is a great LB. Top 15 player in the draft.
Third, this is a SAFETY RICH DRAFT! Meaning, we can't get a player like Ogletree in the 2nd or 3rd. But we can get a safety that is similar.
From the most critical Rams fan to the front office, A++++++++++++++++++++ job. Logic prevails
I figure that I'll poke my head in as I'm not all that happy with our first round as well, not because I don't like the players, I do, I just think that we could have done just as well while gaining a day 1/2 pick rather than in essence, trading down from the 2nd round to the 3rd.
I've made my objections to Austin well known, and whether or not he's missed time up until now is irrelevant, because he was not playing against professional players who will all outweigh him by 20-70 pounds. It's those heavy middle linebackers playing the zone and light him up that scare me. I hope he's shifty enough to dodge them, I really do, but he's going to get hit in the NFL and his yards per touch did not warrant the 8th pick to me. I would have much rather kept our 2nd rounder and taken Patterson at 16 or even traded out from 16. My hope at 16 was Vaccaro, but he was gone.
As for #22, I was assuming that this was a trade all along. Washington's picks just become more and more picks. I can see the desire for Ogletree, and in fact, he was the kind of linebacker I have been calling for. He's a converted safety whom will play the Will, and kick a not bad Dunbar to the strong side. This gives us a very good base defense which will come in handy against our read option division opponents. The fact that Ogletree was a safety shows his coverage skills, which Dunbar is, well, lacking. We can play more base defenses in pasing situations now, as Dunbar is good at blitzing. It lessens our need for a dime corner as well as a safety who can match up with the new age TE's. That is now Ogletree's job: shut down TE's.
Overall I'm not about upset about it because at the end of the day, he is a 1000 snap player, but we likely won't address the starting safety position until the 3rd round now, so we have to hope Phillip Thomas or Shamarko or Rambo drop to us there. We got a playmaker, let's hope he lives. We got a defensive star, let's hope he gets under control. And let's hope we get a safety in the 3rd.
Well to be honest I was a bit concerned with our first move... TA not being my fave WR in this draft. However with the second move I am much happier now! Getting our picks back was great and I do have faith in our front office these days. So much more than in nearly any era of our team!
To answer for the thread creator there were 3 or 4 guys I would have chosen over TA, the usual ones people name. Patterson, Nuke, JH & Woods. I like all 4 of these guys alot. Will be fun to track the progress of this recieving class. And our pocket rocket Tavon, hope you guys and he can win me over. Keeping my faith in our brilliant brain trust as I think they did do a awesome job to start the draft out. How can you not believe in these guys after a year of watching them work! Get er done Fish, Les & Dems!
I don't have a problem with Austin, just what we gave up to get him.
Pretty sure I wrote I would have taken Matt Elam at 30.
Did you read any of my replies to questions?
Thanks for explaining SAFETY RICH DRAFT for me.
I believe Arthur Brown will be every bit the pro that Ogletree is. He's available in the 2nd.
Also, that many pluses makes me question how critical you actually are.
I don't get it.
For the last many years I have heard Rams fans cry about why we did not go for a top WR in the draft. About how we need to get weapons for Bradford etc.
This year there is a WR that the team really seem to like, that most of the experts say is the number one WR in the draft and THE most explosive player for the last several years. So we draft up to get him. And what happens people cry about the second round pick we had to give away....
If Fisher and co really believe that Austin is the man then I applaud the fact that they did what was needed to get him (in the same way that I applaud that they got the top LT and TE in FA ahead of many other teams).
Maybe Austin will be a star, maybe he will be a bust. But at least the front office and HC have the guts to go for the personal that they want! And there is a equal chance the the second round pick we would have had if we did not have made the pick would be a bust.
The draft is to me is like a horse race. If i had 100 dollars and was a betting man I would rather put my 100 dollars on the top horse and hope for it to win than put 50 dollars on two secondary horses.....
If putting all the money on one player that the front office believe have the biggest upside gives us a better chance to win in the "race" compared to two prospect that they do not believe in that is fine with me! It is not like they sold the farm to get him.... and there is no doubt in my mind that he would have been gone at nr 16.
Now lets get Austin signed so that Bradford and him can build up some chemistry and then we shall see what a small FAST wr can do to the big CB's of the Whiners and Seagulls, I hope they are ready for some running!
The only question I have is: Arthur Brown or Alec Ogletree? I think Ogletree fits what we need better, but I have no doubts Brown will be a pro bowler. Not to mention all these guys with off the field issues is really getting ridiculous, honestly.
As a person who was against a trade up during pre-draft discussions, I feel compelled to respond...
Elam is a capable option, Cyprien would have been as well. But there is some deep value at the safety position, and from a talent perspective, Ogletree outweighs Elam IMO. So the Rams went with the best talent by drafting the #1 4-3 OLB rather than the #3 at best S. They'll get their safety later, whether it's Thomas or Wilcox or someone.
So you either move up or move down, and the Rams elected to move up and get a truly impact player after missing out on one by waiting around last year (Blackmon). I was not a fan of the idea of trading up pre-draft, but I've come around on it based on how guys came off the board.
If you're moving down, who are you picking up there? Patterson didn't come off the board until the late 20s, Reid wouldn't have been there since the Whiners moved up. Maybe Hopkins before the Texans do? The other question is who is trading up with the Rams @ 16? The ***** moved up, but the Rams wouldn't have made that deal with a division rival. And the only other first round trade up was Atlanta trading with the Rams @ 22. The Vikings moved back into the first round late but they wouldn't have moved to 16.
You've got to have a partner to do it, and with only five first round trades this year, I'm wondering how busy the Rams' phone was at 16 and what the offers were like.
DK, here's been my issue and will continue to be my issue until proven otherwise, which I hope happens.
1. I don't think that Austin can play 1000 snaps in a season. He's, at most, going to be in on about 70% of the plays if he doesn't get hurt. Spending the draft capital that we did for a guy who won't be a full time player is something a team that is trying to get over the hump and into the Super Bowl does not a team that has no cap space and 4-5 starting roster spots that need to be filled and very little depth. If we had 5 day 1/2 picks we could have our starting WR(Patterson/Hopkins/Allen), WLB(Ogletree), FS(R2 Cyprien, Swearinger?), LG and RB(take your R3 pick). Now we're hoping we win the jackpot again on day 3 for one of those guys.
2. We already brought in a slot guy in free agency. Now, Austin is indeed quite different than Cook, so it's not like we repeated the same kind of weapon, but unless you play 4WR set a lot, one of them is not going to be in the slot. This can be helped by Austin playing in the backfield, which is one area where I could get behind the pick.
3.Givens proved last year he could take the Amendola role, when he was out and Givens exploded. And so, this is keeping Givens outside at Flanker where we could have used him as a slot burner who could also play outside.
4. His stats are not really all that good when you look at them. First off, a very large percentage of his total yards last year came from one opponent. If you take out that one huge game he looks much less impressive for his body of work. He's supposed to be amazingly shifty and can take any ball to the house. He averaged 11.5 yards per catch last year. He averaged 10.5 yards per offensive touch when you insert his carries. Those numbers are unlikely to go up significantly against the NFL's better defensive personnel, so people expecting 25 yards per touch are greatly overestimating his impact. At 11.5 ypc, he would need 87 receptions to get to 1000 yards. Certainly doable, but that's a lot of wear and tear on a guy that small. My prediction: 55 catches, 14 ypc = ~770 yards.
One thing that this pick tells me is that Fisher and the offensive staff are happy on how Brian Quick is progressing. I've stated that we needed an outside WR because Givens could kick inside and we don't know as fans about Brian's progression. This is how I see our base offense as of today:
With a 3 WR pass set:
That last part is actually where I can get behind the pick because at least we can use him as a dynamic piece to move around the field. Our need for a RB is probably decreased because of this.
1. I don't think the Rams traded up into the Top 10 to take Austin and make him a "part time player." Last year, the Rams had three receivers with 500+ snaps to their name, and two of them are gone. So there's some vacancy to be filled in that regard. If Brandon Gibson can get nearly 800 snaps as a receiver here, the Rams will find ways of getting Austin on the field. 1,000 snaps is pretty ambitious; there were only 11 receivers in the entire league last year to hit that mark. Julio Jones was a fantastic receiver last year, played in 16 games with 15 starts, and finished with 846 snaps. I think Austin will be in that 700-800 range, and I don't think that makes him a part time player.
2. I share your concerns here about how well we'll be able to utilize two guys who operate well from the slot. One thing to consider is that perhaps the Rams aren't going to line Cook up out there nearly as much as we thought, but will still have him out running routes and creating mismatches often in the passing game. Consider that Jason Witten led all tight ends last year with 110 receptions and 1039 yards, but ran only 44% of his routes from the slot. If you believe Cook can effectively emerge from an in-line position while Austin operates primarily from the slot, you've still got a number of mismatches there. Who is the defense covering if both are working over the middle, and what does that mean for the coverage Quick and Givens could receive on the outside? Lots of possibilities.
3. Givens emerged when Amendola was out, yes. I think it's a mistake to translate that into say Givens filled Amendola's role, since Danny was primarily a slot guy (80% of his routes originated from the slot) and Givens ran most of his routes when lined up outside (only 15% of his routes originated from the slot). I would argue that you're negating some of Given's ability to be an outside vertical threat if you change him to the slot guy.
4. First, I'm not sure who is saying he'll get 25 yards per touch, but that's incredibly unrealistic just by its very nature. That's like arguing a quarterback is going to throw for 8,000 yards this season. Secondly, if you take the best games off of anyone's resume, then it's going to make them look worse. In 2008, Dez Bryant played 13 games and had 200+ yards in two of them. Take those out and his numbers look pedestrian. How great would Demaryius Thomas' numbers from 2008 look if you removed his 200+ yard game? Take out Julio Jones' 199 and 221 yard games from 2010 and his numbers would be pedestrian, too. That's an easy game to play, but what does it really tell you? How about this - six of Tavon's thirteen games as a senior went for over 100 yards; two others were for 99 yards. Yes, the Baylor game was huge, but he produced in a number of other games. He was a 100 catch, 1100+ yard receiver for two straight years, and he had Stedman Bailey to compete with for receptions.
5. Completely agree with you about this pick sending a message about Quick and even Givens as well. They have confidence in both of those guys as outside threats, so they moved up to add a dynamic inside receiver to work over the middle with Cook. One difference I'd argue though is that I think Austin sees a fair amount of time in two-receiver sets, though I wouldn't be surprised if a number of them featured him motioning into the slot or just lining up there in an unbalanced look.