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  1. #1
    BarronWade's Avatar
    BarronWade is offline Registered User
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    Defensive Coaches draft defensive players early: MYTH!

    This is an article from Walt of walterfootball.com

    I highlighted some of the important parts:

    There's a common NFL Draft myth out there that goes, "Coach X is a defensive-minded guy. He'll take a defensive player with his first-round pick."

    This belief has been used countless times over the years. In 2007, some, including myself, believed Bill Parcells would take Chris Long over Jake Long because he's a defensive coach. A few picks later, some, including myself, had Glenn Dorsey over Matt Ryan because Mike Smith is a defensive coach. Last year, some, excluding myself - I learned my lesson - had Aaron Curry over Matthew Stafford because Jim Schwartz is a defensive coach.

    This year, the baton has been passed to Steve Spagnuolo. Known for his incredible defensive line in New York, Spagnuolo seems set on drafting either Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy - or so many people believe.

    The purpose of this article is to debunk two common NFL Draft myths:

    1. That defensive head coaches draft defensive players in the first round.

    2. That defensive head coaches shy away from taking quarterbacks in the first round because they value playing tough defense and running the ball.


    The following chart, arranged chronologically, comprises every single current defensive head coach in the NFL, as well as all of the former defensive head coaches in the league, dating their hire back to the 2002 realignment year (arbitrary).

    The chart lists every single first-round pick used by that head coach in his first three seasons (the rebuilding years). Note that some head coaches had as many as five picks; they were just fortunate enough to be drafting twice in the first round some years.

    The last column is the number of offensive players and the number of total players taken by each coach in his initial three first rounds. the charts format got all messed up but you can go to the site walterfootball.com

    As the chart shows, most current and recent defensive NFL head coaches tend to take offensive players in the first round. Out of 75 first-round picks, 44 were offensive players, meaning the defensive coaches opted to go with offense 58.7 percent of the time.

    Going further, most current and recent defensive NFL head coaches focused on drafting first-round offensive players early in their tenure. Looking solely at each coach's first two first-round selections, offensive players were chosen 33 out of 52 times, for a whopping 63.5 percent.

    Why do defensive head coaches opt for offense so frequently? My guess is that because most head coaches are overly confident in their abilities, so these defensive guys believed they could coach up "lesser" defensive players.

    Conversely, a defensive coach might be worried about his job security if his offense isn't up to par. Thus, the coach will overcompensate in the draft and select talented players who can take care of the other side of the ball.

    Defensive head coaches draft defensive players in the first round: NFL Draft Myth Debunked.


    Let's move on to a more specific position - the one that inspired this article.

    The question is, what are the chances that Steve Spagnuolo eschews drafting Ndamukong Suh or Gerald McCoy in favor of Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford, should he feel that either Clausen or Bradford is worthy of the No. 1 pick (which, I have to say, is likely)?

    First, let's look at the aforementioned defensive coaches and discard the ones who already had a franchise quarterback, a promising young signal-caller or a highly priced veteran on their team:

    Eric Mangini, CLE - Brady Quinn was an unknown; he had just three career starts going into the 2009 season and looked great in one of them.

    Jim Mora Jr., SEA - Matt Hasselbeck.

    Mike Singletary, SF - Alex Smith's salary was too high, and there was no quarterback worth taking anyway (Stafford, Sanchez off the board).

    Steve Spagnuolo, STL - Marc Bulger's salary was too large for the Rams to afford two high-priced quarterbacks.

    Wade Phillips, DAL - Tony Romo.

    Mike Tomlin, PIT - Ben Roethlisberger.

    Dick Jauron, BUF - First-round pick J.P. Losman was surprisingly coming off a good year (3,049 yards, 19 TDs, 14 INTs, 62.5%, 7.1 YPA).

    Eric Mangini, NYJ - Chad Pennington.

    Rod Marinelli, DET - Jon Kitna signed a 4-year deal a month before the 2006 NFL Draft. The Lions could have drafted Jay Cutler instead. Nice job, Matt Millen.

    Herm Edwards, KC - Trent Green.

    Jim Mora Jr., ATL - Michael Vick.

    Lovie Smith, CHI - Rex Grossman drafted in the first round the year before.

    Tony Dungy, IND - Peyton Manning.

    Marty Schottenheimer, SD - Drew Brees.

    Bill Belichick, NE - Drew Bledsoe.


    We've eliminated 15 defensive head coaches who didn't have the opportunity to draft a quarterback because they had a guy they already dedicated their resources to. That leaves us with 14 defensive coaches who had the luxury of drafting a franchise signal-caller. Let's see if they took a quarterback or not.

    This use to be a chart i fixed it up becuz the format of it gets messed in this forum


    Raheem Morris:

    Josh Freeman
    1st year

    Rex Ryan:

    Mark Sanchez
    1st year

    Jim Schwartz:

    Matthew Stafford
    1st Year

    John Harbaugh:

    Joe Flacco:
    1st Year

    Mike Smith:

    Matt Ryan
    1st Year

    Romeo Crennel:

    Brady Quinn
    3rd Year

    Mike Nolan:

    Alex Smith
    1st Year

    Nick Saban:
    No

    Jack Del Rio:

    Byron Leftwich
    1st Year

    Marvin Lewis:

    Carson Palmer
    1st Year

    Bill Parcells
    No

    Dom Capers

    David Carr
    1st Year

    John Fox
    No

    Jeff Fisher:

    Steve McNair
    2nd Year


    In summary, 11 of the 14 defensive head coaches who had the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the first round did so - and nine of them did it in their first year.

    Of course, Marc Bulger's massive salary prohibited the Rams from selecting Mark Sanchez last year - though the Rams were reportedly intrigued with Sanchez.

    Now, without a salary cap, St. Louis has the luxury of cutting Bulger and drafting either Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford atop the 2010 NFL Draft.

    And as this research has shown, whether they pass on Clausen and Bradford has absolutely nothing to do with Spagnuolo having a defensive background. On the contrary, Spagnuolo's defensive mindset makes a quarterback selection even more likely.

    Defensive head coaches shy away from taking quarterbacks in the first round because they value playing tough defense and running the ball: NFL Draft Myth Debunked.

    The next time you hear someone say, "Coach X is a defensive-minded guy. He'll take a defensive player with his first-round pick," please refer them to this page.


  2. #2
    shower beers's Avatar
    shower beers is offline Registered User
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    Re: Defensive Coaches draft defensive players early: MYTH!

    ehhhh...I see what they're trying to do here, but it's a very pick-and-chose-facts kind of article. For instance, in pulling the first number from the article (58%), and the corresponding quote:
    "...As the chart shows, most current and recent defensive NFL head coaches tend to take offensive players in the first round. Out of 75 first-round picks, 44 were offensive players, meaning the defensive coaches opted to go with offense 58.7 percent of the time. "

    The writer claims most coaches take offensive players, but then produces a number that's only slightly above 50%, while ignoring outside factors like draft position, current roster of players, need vs. bpa, etc.

    I don't think this idea is so much of a myth, rather than a logical assumption for people. "It makes sense that a defensive minded coach would take a defensive player...", but that doesn't necessarily make it true.

  3. #3
    Bralidore(RAMMODE) Guest

    Re: Defensive Coaches draft defensive players early: MYTH!

    Quote Originally Posted by shower beers View Post
    ehhhh...I see what they're trying to do here, but it's a very pick-and-chose-facts kind of article. For instance, in pulling the first number from the article (58%), and the corresponding quote:
    "...As the chart shows, most current and recent defensive NFL head coaches tend to take offensive players in the first round. Out of 75 first-round picks, 44 were offensive players, meaning the defensive coaches opted to go with offense 58.7 percent of the time. "

    The writer claims most coaches take offensive players, but then produces a number that's only slightly above 50%, while ignoring outside factors like draft position, current roster of players, need vs. bpa, etc.

    I don't think this idea is so much of a myth, rather than a logical assumption for people. "It makes sense that a defensive minded coach would take a defensive player...", but that doesn't necessarily make it true.
    well said sir

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