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Thread: Different Draft, Same Kind of Questions Every Year

  1. #1
    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Different Draft, Same Kind of Questions Every Year

    It seems like the more drafts change from year to year, the more they stay the same.

    As some one who has been a draftnik for 43 years, I see that ever so clearly, but yer it seems like the same agruments about certain players happens every single year. It is the fodder that feeds the cottage industry that is the draft.

    Just look at last year, and you will see what I mean, and one could use prett much any year they can really remember what occurred, and look how those focus players turned out, guys who some loved as a high pick, and some questioned, based on their memory.

    In 2012, the big question, once it was decided which teams woould get the two top QBs, was where would Ryan Tannehill, a very talented but Ram QB, go.

    In the end, Tannehill went to the team that made the most sense, Miami, willing to take a chance very early.

    The next question was whether Cleveland would deal up to get Weeden as their QB, and that indeed happened.

    Now was Tannehill a great pick at #8, or Weeden a good move? The jury is surely still out on that.

    The second question was whether Justin Blackmon was truly a top 10 type WR or just the best of an average lot, and whether #2 WR Michael Floyd was a first round talent at all.

    In the end, Jacksonville traded UP to get Blackmon, so we will never know if they Rams would have taken him. The jury is out on whether those two were top WR prospects.

    Next question was whether Combine stud Dontari Poe was worthy of a high pick, due to his lack of great overall play on a consistent basis. Everyone wondered if he would go before Fletcher Cox, who most had rated as the top tackle all along.

    In the end, they went back to back, with Poe first, After he went, the Eagles dealt up to get Cox the next pick. It tuens out Coz was the better pick, by far, at least as rookies.

    The next question was whether Trent Richardson was a top top RB , and after Cleveland took that chance, it turned out he was.

    Everyone wondered if Morris Claiborne was a great CB worthy of a top top pick, or a bit too small, not a Patrick Peterson talent.
    At least his first year, he was not, and Dallas gave a lot to get him.

    People thought Riley Reiff and David Decastro would go very early, top 15 for sure,
    and they went 23 and 24.

    No one quite knew where Michael Brockers fit, bt Jeff Fisher and Les Snead turned out to really like him. They thought he was better than Poe and Cox.

    Everyone thought the Seahawks reached badly for Bruce Irvin , a raw and specialized talent, a combine/speed guy mostly but it was a great pick for them.

    After Richardson, everyone liked a couple backs with late first/ early second talent, and wondered if they would fall to roundtwo.

    They didn't, and Wilson and Martin proved to be very good picks 31 and 32.

    Here were questions on Shea McClellan and Chandler Jones, two guys who zoomed up draft boards, whether that kind of move up was real as far as pro performance.

    Jones , pick 21 had a great rookie year for the Patriots, while McClellan , pick 19 did almost nothing for the Bears after a switch to DE.

    There were questions about Luke Kuechley, Dre Kirkpatrick, Mevin Ingram and Donta Hightower, whether they were overhyped guys or pro bowl possibilities

    Ingram pick 18 struggled mightily for the Chargers, while Hightower, pick 25 was very solid for , again, the Patriots, who never seem to get it wrong. Kirkpatrick, picked 17th did nothing for Cincinnati, arguably the second worst #! pick to AJ Jenkins, but Dre went 13 picks higher than Jenkins.

    Kuechly is a stud, well worth his pick, or even higher perhaps.

    Then you had Mark Barron, who many questioned as a reach at pick 7 for a safety.

    Going on 2012, he surely was, while Harrison Smith, drafted 29th, was a better player by far, a star

    The thought on AJ Jenkins was that the Niners reached badly for the smallish Illini
    wide out. Jenkins did nothing, the worst #1 pick of all, but it didn't matter till the Super Bowl I guess.

    The guys that seem now to have been poor picks, had the same questions guys in this draft do, and people should keep an eye toward even that recent past to see what happens when teams reach.
    Torry Holt likes this.

    Barry Waller

  2. #2
    EvilXenu's Avatar
    EvilXenu is offline Registered User
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    Re: Different Draft, Same Kind of Questions Every Year

    Interesting points.

    So, Barry... how long have you been interested in the NFL draft?
    And you thought Mike Martz was "mad"!

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    Re: Different Draft, Same Kind of Questions Every Year

    Barry when are you going to post your mock for the Rams?

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    Re: Different Draft, Same Kind of Questions Every Year

    Michael Crabtree looked like a disappointment after his first couple years in the league as well. Why don't we wait a couple of years before we form opinions on whether or not these picks worked out for these teams.

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    Barry Waller is offline Registered User
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    Re: Different Draft, Same Kind of Questions Every Year

    >>So, Barry... how long have you been interested in the NFL draft?>.

    Interested is the wrong word. I have been obsessed with the draft since 1970, maybe 1969.

    Back then all you had was your Joel Buchsbaum book and occasionally an interview with him or H Balzer on KMOX.

    I remember in 1972 , standing by the tickertape machine in the student union at SIU Edwardsville for hours, waiting for the Cardinals picks. I kind of started doing it to see if I could pick beter guys than the team was, with George Boone, maybe t he worst ever, doing the drafting for the Cardinals.

    I started covering the Rams in 1996, the first Internet writer in St louis, and in the top five in the whole league, at least guys with media credentials.

    SInce then I was on air with Bernie Miklasz when Orlando Pace draft trade went down ( We got a call from the Rams PR with the "scoop", a big thrill for me.

    I've also been on the radop with Frank Cusimano, Jim Holder, Bill Wilkerson, and Tony Twist, talking draft, and I did a radio mock draft witha sports station in Iowa two years, as the guy making the Rams picks.

    I took Alex Barron on that mock in 2005, so like the Rams I got it wrong.
    In 2006, I had Tye Hill not even in my top 10 CB, so I went with Haloti Ngata for the Rams in that mock, without that trade down the Rams did.

    I used to take off work t o watch the draft whenever it was on Tuesdays, and everyone thought I was nuts, including my son, who now is way more into fantasy and mock drafts etc at age 28.

    I spend hundreds of hours every year on this obsession, which only got worse when I started being able to question coaches and GMs etc, and know they lie a lot the last couple weeks before the draft, and they know we know they do.

    I have not only studied players every year, but also the whole way the strategy of the draft works, based on strenth at certain spots and weaknesses at others. That's something fantasy geeks are well aware of every year.

    This year , with so much information available because of the Internet, I have done far more studying t han I probably have in five years on a draft, maybe because of the extra #1, and the direction of the team.

    Every year you kind of forhet details on guys, but when players vecome free agents or are cut, that studying kind of comes in handy.

    Draft Day is like Xmas, Easter, and New YEars rolled up in one for me, and being able to be at Rams PArk, interview the picks and the coaches and GM, all the while tracking the picks as they go on is exhausting, and I am wrung out by the time I get home, only to have to write a story on the days.

    I once did a story on the odds of each round player making a roster after two years, and becoming a starter with the team that drafts them, and the results were quite telling about why players get picked in round two instead of one, THE RISK.

    Turns out a round one guy has about a 50-50 chance of being a solid starter after three years. A bit better for top 15 picks.
    Round two it's about a 30% chance of that.
    Round three, it's about 15%

    After that, it's very little difference between 4th through street FA, about 5 to 10% chance of starting.

    That story took a long time to research, and I used all the players drafted since the leagues merged.

    It really showed how almost valueless all those late rounders really are, compared to a veteran player with known value.
    Barry Waller

  6. #6
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    Re: Different Draft, Same Kind of Questions Every Year

    Quote Originally Posted by jmk321 View Post
    Michael Crabtree looked like a disappointment after his first couple years in the league as well. Why don't we wait a couple of years before we form opinions on whether or not these picks worked out for these teams.
    I second this....player are part of a whole....the whole is was matters most and the movement to improvement happens simultaneously with players and teams....

    Also, you summarize the first round -- there are 7 and every player matters., just look at the value of the Rams kicker.....

    I think Rams fans know, more than any team, it takes a program, coach and a deep draft year in and year out to build something of a movement.....

    The draft is fun, no one loves prospects more than me...but the truth of the matter is that people change daily, and hopefully its to get the best out of them.

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