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Thread: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

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    Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    Most people consider Justin Blackmon a natural receiving talent, but someone without much upside. Upside is derived from measurables and pure natural abilities such as height, weight, strength, speed, and explosiveness. These are all measured at the combine. This is to compare Blackmon to different receivers and see how he matches up athletically.

    The first group consists of Blackmon, HOF receiver Michael Irvin, and HOF caliber receiver Torry Holt.
    Name Holt Irvin Blackmon
    Height 6’1 6’2 6’1
    Weight 190 198 215
    40 Yard Dash 4.38 4.55 4.46
    Vertical 37 35
    Broad 9’10 10’4
    Best College Season - Receptions 88 53 111
    (121)
    Best College Season - Yards 1604 868 1782
    Best College Season - Touchdowns 11
    (16)
    11 20

    I compared Blackmon to Holt because they both might be drafted to the Rams at 6th overall. Holt is much faster and lighter, and played a different style of receiver. Blackmon and Irvin are very comparable in their style, size and athleticism.


    The second group consists of current players Blackmon is being compared to.
    He is being compared to Anquan Boldin and Hakeem Nicks from a physical standpoint. He is being compared to Julio Jones and AJ Green from last year’s draft in way that negatively impacts his athleticism. I threw Larry Fitzgerald into the mix because his athleticism was questioned before he entered the NFL (in the chart c is combine and pd is pro day).
    Name Fitz Boldin Nicks AJ Green J. Jones Blackmon
    Height 6’3 6’1 6’1 6’4 6’3 6’1
    Weight 221 216 212 207 220 215
    40 Yard Dash 4.63 (c)
    4.51 (pd)
    4.72 4.49 4.50 4.39 4.46 (pd)
    Vertical 35’ 33.5’ 36’ 34.5’ 38.5’ 35’
    Broad 9’6 10’6 11’3 10’4
    Best College Season - Receptions 92 65 68
    (74)
    57 * 78 111
    (121)
    Best College Season - Yards 1672 1011 1222 963 * 1133 1782
    Best College Season - Touchdowns 22 13 12 9 * 7 20

    *AJ Green missed 4 games in his final season

    Julio Jones killed the combine. However, Blackmon’s workouts are almost identical in all aspects to Fitzgerald, Boldin, Nicks, and AJ Green. His workouts are actually fairly impressive. There is nothing to suggest he has a low ceiling in the NFL.

    *Note – Boldin, with his 4.72 forty, became the fifth fastest receiver to 7000 yards

    • Blackmon is faster than Green, Nicks, Boldin, and Fitzgerald
    • All players are in the same vertical range around 35 inches
    • He is the same height as Nicks and Boldin, 2 inches shorter than Fitzgerald
    • Statistically and physically he is extremely similar to Fitzgerald, with only 2 inches in height separating them.


    This group compares Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant, first round prospects in their respective drafts out of spread offenses.
    Name Crabtree Dez Bryant Blackmon
    Height 6’1 6’3 6’1
    Weight 214 227 215
    40 Yard Dash 4.54 4.52 4.46
    Vertical 34 38 35
    Broad 11’1 10’4
    Best College Season - Receptions 134 87 111
    (121)
    Best College Season - Yards 1962 1480 1782
    Best College Season - Touchdowns 22 19 20


    This group consists of workout warriors and top 5 picks Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson. Try to look at Megatron’s stats and not laugh.
    Name Andre Calvin Blackmon
    Height 6’3 6’5 6’1
    Weight 229 240 215
    40 Yard Dash 4.41 4.35 4.46
    Vertical 41 42.5 35
    Broad 11’0 11’7 10’4
    Best College Season - Receptions 52 76 111
    (121)
    Best College Season - Yards 1092 1202 1782
    Best College Season - Touchdowns 9
    (10)
    15 20


    This last group consists of this years top pass catchers Rueben Randle, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, and Kendall Wright.
    Name Randle Floyd Quick Hill Wright Blackmon
    Height 6’3 6’3 6’3 6’4 5’11 6’1
    Weight 212 220 215 209 197 215
    40 Yard Dash 4.43 4.46 4.53 4.36 4.41 4.46 (pd)
    Vertical 31 36.5 34 39.5 39 35
    Broad 10’1 10’2 9’11 11’1 10’3 10’4
    Best College Season - Receptions 53 100 71 28 108 111
    (121)
    Best College Season - Yards 917 1147 1096 820 1663 1782
    Best College Season - Touchdowns 8 9
    (12)
    11 5 14 20


    He compares well with all the receivers. Stephen Hill is a workout warrior, and Kendall Wright has actually had a decent offseason despite being downgraded by everyone.


    Conclusions:
    Only 4 receivers in these comparisons have unbelievable physical ‘upside’. Those would be Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and Stephen Hill. Stephen Hill killed this year’s combine (compare him to Calvin Johnson. Calvin is a freak of nature)

    Blackmon compared favorably or equally with all the other receivers.
    Height is the biggest factor in the criticism of Blackmon. If Blackmon was 6’2 (or taller) its conceivable that people would love his pre draft workouts. If he was 2 inches taller he would be almost identical to AJ Green. He is very athletic. He is just 6’1.

    There is nothing to suggest he has any limited physical upside. This doesn't even account for work ethic, passion, route running, ball adjustments, toughness, hands, ability to separate, ability to show up in big situations, and every other aspect of being a receiver.

    Best comparison from only a physical standpoint:
    Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Irvin, Michael Crabtree
    Last edited by codeman123; -04-16-2012 at 02:50 PM.


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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    They compared Bradford to Aikman. If you're telling me Blackmon is Irvin 2.0 I'll take that every day and twice on Sunday.

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    Nicely done man. Im praying we get him.


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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tampa_Ram View Post
    Nicely done man. Im praying we get him.
    Just gotta hope he passes the Factory of Sadness
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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    I don't think WR Blackmon will be there at six. If he is draft him. When it comes to big games he elivates his play. More pressure better he plays.


    I think he will play like Anquan Boldin but be better. I'll take that any day. Maybe even a Branden Marshall type WR.

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    These are all number 1 caliber receivers. A lot of the really good receivers in the league run over 4.45.

    Name Lloyd Bowe S. Johnson R. White V Jackson Blackmon
    Height 60 62 62 61 64 61
    Weight 184 221 210 207 241 215
    40 Time 4.62 4.51 4.59 4.46 4.46 4.46 (pd)
    Vertical 36 33 32.5 41 39 35
    Broad 105 101 106 104

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    I keep reading about all these upper tier college athletes that are either going to be drafted, or may be drafted and the term LACKS ATHLETICISM gets bandied about quite often.

    Im here to set the story straight-- there is no way in hell that any of these athletes lacks athleticism. You put most of these guys in the other 2 of the big 3 sports (baseball and basketball) and they would all be very good.

    In fact Id hazard to say that football players are the best athletes. The are the only guys that can transition from football to sport X, Y, Z, etc.. and be fine. You rarely if ever see players from other sports come to football and excel. (yes there are the exceptions, but not the rule)

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    The are the only guys that can transition from football to sport X, Y, Z, etc.. and be fine. You rarely if ever see players from other sports come to football and excel. (yes there are the exceptions, but not the rule)
    Just curious.........by definition wouldn't any football player who played another sport be a player from another sport who came to football?
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".


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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".
    .

    Even I look like a top 5 pick at WR if you just look at my youtube videos.

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    This guy doesn't stack up statiscally, athletically or socially... He sucks, Next
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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    Quote Originally Posted by DE_Ramfan View Post
    .

    Even I look like a top 5 pick at WR if you just look at my youtube videos.
    Well I'd assume that 99% of people on this forum wouldn't go back and watch 12 NCAA games that are 3 hours long..


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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".
    I made this thread exclusively for combine numbers and height/weight. That was the point.

    Blackmon is criticized for his lack of athleticism compared to Fitzgerald and AJ Green and Megatron. Even the Blackmon supporters of late have seemed to agree that he doesn't have elite measurables compared to other top 10 WRs. If someone can't find fault in AJ Green for his pre-draft workouts how can they find it in Blackmon?

    People are going to nitpick Blackmon about his size and speed, just like they have all offseason. Now they can't nitpick his speed or explosiveness or athleticism because they match up with a lot of elite WRs. The criticism is down to his height. Would someone pass him up because he is 6'1 and not 6'3.

    The point of this thread was to say that there is a lot more to do with being an elite WR beside a size/speed ratio, and no one can look down on his size and speed because he is in the same range as multiple elite #1 WRs.

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    I think you did a good job, but you discount some major points.

    You say he is only 2 inches shorter than Fitz -- every 1/2 inch is HUGE from 6ft to 6ft 5in --
    Secondly, you say he is faster than Fitz, and other....remember that Blackmon didn't run on equal footing with these guys at the combine...

    Blackmon is top talent, and he is definitely fast enough...I think his doubts will be over the middle, and his strength -- I think he is alot weak than Fitz, CJ, Britt, Julio, etc....


    If Blackmon is a Ram we won't have problems, this year the Rams draft will be decided in Rounds 2 - 6

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    Re: Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".
    I would venture to say that receptions, yards, and TD's might have a little something to do with what's going on on the field.
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