Does Blackmon Lack 'Elite' Upside?

[codeman123]

Most people consider Justin Blackmon a natural receiving talent, but someone without much upside. Upside is derived from measurables and pure natural abilities such as height, weight, strength, speed, and explosiveness. These are all measured at the combine. This is to compare Blackmon to different receivers and see how he matches up athletically.

The first group consists of Blackmon, HOF receiver Michael Irvin, and HOF caliber receiver Torry Holt.

Name	Holt	Irvin	Blackmon
Height	6’1	6’2	6’1
Weight	190	198	215
40 Yard Dash	4.38	4.55	4.46
Vertical	37		35
Broad	9’10		10’4
Best College Season - Receptions	88	53	111 (121)
Best College Season - Yards	1604	868	1782
Best College Season - Touchdowns	11 (16)	11	20

I compared Blackmon to Holt because they both might be drafted to the Rams at 6^th overall. Holt is much faster and lighter, and played a different style of receiver. Blackmon and Irvin are very comparable in their style, size and athleticism.


The second group consists of current players Blackmon is being compared to.
He is being compared to Anquan Boldin and Hakeem Nicks from a physical standpoint. He is being compared to Julio Jones and AJ Green from last year’s draft in way that negatively impacts his athleticism. I threw Larry Fitzgerald into the mix because his athleticism was questioned before he entered the NFL (in the chart c is combine and pd is pro day).

Name	Fitz	Boldin	Nicks	AJ Green	J. Jones	Blackmon
Height	6’3	6’1	6’1	6’4	6’3	6’1
Weight	221	216	212	207	220	215
40 Yard Dash	4.63 (c) 4.51 (pd)	4.72	4.49	4.50	4.39	4.46 (pd)
Vertical	35’	33.5’	36’	34.5’	38.5’	35’
Broad		9’6		10’6	11’3	10’4
Best College Season - Receptions	92	65	68 (74)	57 *	78	111 (121)
Best College Season - Yards	1672	1011	1222	963 *	1133	1782
Best College Season - Touchdowns	22	13	12	9 *	7	20

*AJ Green missed 4 games in his final season

Julio Jones killed the combine. However, Blackmon’s workouts are almost identical in all aspects to Fitzgerald, Boldin, Nicks, and AJ Green. His workouts are actually fairly impressive. There is nothing to suggest he has a low ceiling in the NFL.

*Note – Boldin, with his 4.72 forty, became the fifth fastest receiver to 7000 yards

• Blackmon is faster than Green, Nicks, Boldin, and Fitzgerald
• All players are in the same vertical range around 35 inches
• He is the same height as Nicks and Boldin, 2 inches shorter than Fitzgerald
• Statistically and physically he is extremely similar to Fitzgerald, with only 2 inches in height separating them.

This group compares Michael Crabtree and Dez Bryant, first round prospects in their respective drafts out of spread offenses.

Name	Crabtree	Dez Bryant	Blackmon
Height	6’1	6’3	6’1
Weight	214	227	215
40 Yard Dash	4.54	4.52	4.46
Vertical	34	38	35
Broad		11’1	10’4
Best College Season - Receptions	134	87	111 (121)
Best College Season - Yards	1962	1480	1782
Best College Season - Touchdowns	22	19	20

This group consists of workout warriors and top 5 picks Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson. Try to look at Megatron’s stats and not laugh.

Name	Andre	Calvin	Blackmon
Height	6’3	6’5	6’1
Weight	229	240	215
40 Yard Dash	4.41	4.35	4.46
Vertical	41	42.5	35
Broad	11’0	11’7	10’4
Best College Season - Receptions	52	76	111 (121)
Best College Season - Yards	1092	1202	1782
Best College Season - Touchdowns	9 (10)	15	20

This last group consists of this years top pass catchers Rueben Randle, Michael Floyd, Brian Quick, Stephen Hill, and Kendall Wright.

Name	Randle	Floyd	Quick	Hill	Wright	Blackmon
Height	6’3	6’3	6’3	6’4	5’11	6’1
Weight	212	220	215	209	197	215
40 Yard Dash	4.43	4.46	4.53	4.36	4.41	4.46 (pd)
Vertical	31	36.5	34	39.5	39	35
Broad	10’1	10’2	9’11	11’1	10’3	10’4
Best College Season - Receptions	53	100	71	28	108	111 (121)
Best College Season - Yards	917	1147	1096	820	1663	1782
Best College Season - Touchdowns	8	9 (12)	11	5	14	20

He compares well with all the receivers. Stephen Hill is a workout warrior, and Kendall Wright has actually had a decent offseason despite being downgraded by everyone.


Conclusions:
Only 4 receivers in these comparisons have unbelievable physical ‘upside’. Those would be Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, and Stephen Hill. Stephen Hill killed this year’s combine (compare him to Calvin Johnson. Calvin is a freak of nature)

Blackmon compared favorably or equally with all the other receivers.
Height is the biggest factor in the criticism of Blackmon. If Blackmon was 6’2 (or taller) its conceivable that people would love his pre draft workouts. If he was 2 inches taller he would be almost identical to AJ Green. He is very athletic. He is just 6’1.

There is nothing to suggest he has any limited physical upside. This doesn't even account for work ethic, passion, route running, ball adjustments, toughness, hands, ability to separate, ability to show up in big situations, and every other aspect of being a receiver.

Best comparison from only a physical standpoint:
Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Irvin, Michael Crabtree

[DE_Ramfan]

They compared Bradford to Aikman. If you're telling me Blackmon is Irvin 2.0 I'll take that every day and twice on Sunday.

[Tampa_Ram]

Nicely done man. Im praying we get him.

[codeman123]

Nicely done man. Im praying we get him.

Just gotta hope he passes the Factory of Sadness

[Shan the Ram Man]

I don't think WR Blackmon will be there at six. If he is draft him. When it comes to big games he elivates his play. More pressure better he plays.


I think he will play like Anquan Boldin but be better. I'll take that any day. Maybe even a Branden Marshall type WR.

[codeman123]

These are all number 1 caliber receivers. A lot of the really good receivers in the league run over 4.45.

Name	Lloyd	Bowe	S. Johnson	R. White	V Jackson	Blackmon
Height	6’0	6’2	6’2	6’1	6’4	6’1
Weight	184	221	210	207	241	215
40 Time	4.62	4.51	4.59	4.46	4.46	4.46 (pd)
Vertical	36	33	32.5	41	39	35
Broad		10’5	10’1	10’6		10’4

[punahou]

I keep reading about all these upper tier college athletes that are either going to be drafted, or may be drafted and the term LACKS ATHLETICISM gets bandied about quite often.

Im here to set the story straight-- there is no way in hell that any of these athletes lacks athleticism. You put most of these guys in the other 2 of the big 3 sports (baseball and basketball) and they would all be very good.

In fact Id hazard to say that football players are the best athletes. The are the only guys that can transition from football to sport X, Y, Z, etc.. and be fine. You rarely if ever see players from other sports come to football and excel. (yes there are the exceptions, but not the rule)

[HUbison]

The are the only guys that can transition from football to sport X, Y, Z, etc.. and be fine. You rarely if ever see players from other sports come to football and excel. (yes there are the exceptions, but not the rule)

Just curious.........by definition wouldn't any football player who played another sport be a player from another sport who came to football?

[sosa39rams]

This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".

[DE_Ramfan]

This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".

.

Even I look like a top 5 pick at WR if you just look at my youtube videos.

[ZiaRam]

This guy doesn't stack up statiscally, athletically or socially... He sucks, Next

[sosa39rams]

.

Even I look like a top 5 pick at WR if you just look at my youtube videos.

Well I'd assume that 99% of people on this forum wouldn't go back and watch 12 NCAA games that are 3 hours long..

[codeman123]

This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".

I made this thread exclusively for combine numbers and height/weight. That was the point.

Blackmon is criticized for his lack of athleticism compared to Fitzgerald and AJ Green and Megatron. Even the Blackmon supporters of late have seemed to agree that he doesn't have elite measurables compared to other top 10 WRs. If someone can't find fault in AJ Green for his pre-draft workouts how can they find it in Blackmon?

People are going to nitpick Blackmon about his size and speed, just like they have all offseason. Now they can't nitpick his speed or explosiveness or athleticism because they match up with a lot of elite WRs. The criticism is down to his height. Would someone pass him up because he is 6'1 and not 6'3.

The point of this thread was to say that there is a lot more to do with being an elite WR beside a size/speed ratio, and no one can look down on his size and speed because he is in the same range as multiple elite #1 WRs.

[richtree]

I think you did a good job, but you discount some major points.

You say he is only 2 inches shorter than Fitz -- every 1/2 inch is HUGE from 6ft to 6ft 5in --
Secondly, you say he is faster than Fitz, and other....remember that Blackmon didn't run on equal footing with these guys at the combine...

Blackmon is top talent, and he is definitely fast enough...I think his doubts will be over the middle, and his strength -- I think he is alot weak than Fitz, CJ, Britt, Julio, etc....


If Blackmon is a Ram we won't have problems, this year the Rams draft will be decided in Rounds 2 - 6

[Yodude]

This thread is sort of pointless, no offence. Unfortunately, these numbers have nothing to do with whats going on-on the field. The doubters will still doubt after seeing this thread, some height stats and weight wont change anyone's mind. All you should have said was " Go search up Justin Blackmon on youtube".

I would venture to say that receptions, yards, and TD's might have a little something to do with what's going on on the field.