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  1. #1
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    max
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    Draft Order by max

    OK. I did the numbers again.

    Since all I care about is the Rams, this is about their only threat in getting the #1 overall pick, the Lions.

    Now all this is moot if the Rams lose next week against the Niners, the Rams obviously get the coveted pick.

    But some people are wondering what happens if the Rams win and the Lions lose. Then it comes down to opponents SOS.

    The easiest way to look at opponents SOS is by counting opponents wins since the denominator is the same for both teams, total games played, which is 16 games X 16 opponents = 256 total games when the season is completed.

    Currently the Lions are in the lead because their opponents SOS is 122 wins, while the Rams opponents SOS is 125. But the Rams automatically close the gap by one whether the Vikings or Bears win tonight since the Lions played each of them twice and the Rams played them once each. That will put the SOS at Lions=124 to Rams=126, going into the final week.

    Since the Rams must win and the Lions must lose next week for the SOS to matter, that will actually tie up the SOS at 127 each because we are each playing division opponents and a win by them is bad for SOS purposes.

    This means that the baseline is tied at 127 opponents SOS for the Rams and Lions and the deciding factor will then be the remaining opponents wins in the last week.

    Here it comes down to 8 games that matter, the rest are irrelevant (assuming the Rams win and the Lions lose):
    Indianapolis at Buffalo
    Jacksonville at Cleveland
    New England at Houston
    Pittsburgh at Miami
    NY Giants at Minnesota
    Cincinnati at NY Jets
    Green Bay at Arizona
    Baltimore at Oakland

    We want Buffalo, Cleveland, NE, Pitt, Minny, Cinn, GB, and Balt to win. The big games are Jacksonville at Cleveland, and Green Bay at Arizona. They count for 2 wins each.

    To me the SOS looks like about 50-50 either way between the Rams and the Lions. We may have a slight edge if you assume the favorites winning.

    We could actually beat the Niners and still have a good shot at the #1 pick. So, a lot of things have to go wrong to lose the pick, it's well over 90% in the Rams favor.
    Last edited by HUbison; -12-28-2009 at 06:26 PM.


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    Re: Draft Order by max

    I'd love to see the Rams win and the Lions win next week. Get some momentum for both franchises that certainly need it but greedily we still get Suh.


    Always and Forever a fan of the St. Louis Rams

  3. #3
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    Re: Draft Order by max

    Quote Originally Posted by max View Post
    OK. I did the numbers again.

    Since all I care about is the Rams, this is about their only threat in getting the #1 overall pick, the Lions.

    Now all this is moot if the Rams lose next week against the Niners, the Rams obviously get the coveted pick.

    But some people are wondering what happens if the Rams win and the Lions lose. Then it comes down to opponents SOS.

    The easiest way to look at opponents SOS is by counting opponents wins since the denominator is the same for both teams, total games played, which is 16 games X 16 opponents = 256 total games when the season is completed.

    Currently the Lions are in the lead because their opponents SOS is 122 wins, while the Rams opponents SOS is 125. But the Rams automatically close the gap by one whether the Vikings or Bears win tonight since the Lions played each of them twice and the Rams played them once each. That will put the SOS at Lions=124 to Rams=126, going into the final week.

    Since the Rams must win and the Lions must lose next week for the SOS to matter, that will actually tie up the SOS at 127 each because we are each playing division opponents and a win by them is bad for SOS purposes.

    This means that the baseline is tied at 127 opponents SOS for the Rams and Lions and the deciding factor will then be the remaining opponents wins in the last week.

    Here it comes down to 8 games that matter, the rest are irrelevant (assuming the Rams win and the Lions lose):
    Indianapolis at Buffalo
    Jacksonville at Cleveland
    New England at Houston
    Pittsburgh at Miami
    NY Giants at Minnesota
    Cincinnati at NY Jets
    Green Bay at Arizona
    Baltimore at Oakland

    We want Buffalo, Cleveland, NE, Pitt, Minny, Cinn, GB, and Balt to win. The big games are Jacksonville at Cleveland, and Green Bay at Arizona. They count for 2 wins each.

    To me the SOS looks like about 50-50 either way between the Rams and the Lions. We may have a slight edge if you assume the favorites winning.

    We could actually beat the Niners and still have a good shot at the #1 pick. So, a lot of things have to go wrong to lose the pick, it's well over 90% in the Rams favor.

    Good stuff man.

    90% that we have the chance to get Suh, but that still leaves 10% up in the air, and as we all know, these are the Rams, so they might find a way....ermm...

    *knocks on wood*


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