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  1. #1
    Draft Tek Guy is offline Registered User
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    Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    Hi Ram fans, I operate a “Mock Draft” website which computer generates a 7-round draft based upon Positional Priorities for each team, and also the master list of players available to be drafted.

    Currently I show the following draft for St Louis. But, I really need some input on Rams positional needs. Assuming that I revise the Rams positional priorities, the selections will be subject to change:

    Current Simulation:
    1st round – LaRon Landry FS LSU
    2nd round – Quentin Moses DE Georgia
    3rd round – Manny Ramirez OG Texas Tech
    4th round – Nate Harris ILB Louisville
    5th round (fr Buffalo) CJ Wilson CB Baylor
    5th round – Dustin Fry OC Clemson
    6th round – Derek Landri DT Notre Dame
    7th round – Matt Trannon WR Michigan St

    The goal of the Draft Tek model is to produce a credible draft simulation given the positional priorities of each team matched up with the player ranking database.

    Here are the codes that the program uses to describe needs. Given those, I will discuss each position below:

    Priority 1 – Absolute Need for Starter highest team need. Will Reach (within reason). Each team gets only one P1 designation.
    Priority 2 - Need for Starter high team need. Will Reach (within reason). There can be multiple P2 designations.
    Priority 3 - Need for Starter high team need. NO Reach (within reason). There can be multiple P3 designations. Actually “No Reach” does allow a little reach – A team with pick 20 will be allowed to pick a #23 rated player, for example.
    Priority 4 – Need for depth but looking for a value pick. Player needs to be ranked higher than the draft pick. Multiple P4’s allowed.
    Priority 5 – This is a depth pick similar to #4, but one that the team wants to be sure and fill somewhere. In round #4, a P5 will upgrade to a P2. Multiple P4’s allowed.
    Priority 6 – This is a need that the team only wants to address in the lower rounds. In round 5, all P6 codes convert to P4s for best available picks.
    Priority 9 – do not need do not pick .

    Rams needs. I will describe my current level of understanding of the team. Feel free to correct me where needed:

    QB – I’ve got a P9. Bulger a premier QB with decent backups in Ragone and Fitz.
    RB – I have P4. Does Jackson need a quality backup? Stephen Davis acceptable?
    I’m thinking of moving to P6 or P9.
    WR – Holt and Bruce still among the best. I’ve got a P4 based upon Curtis leaving via FA. But really that’s premature. I will go P9 (do not draft a WR) and revise if and when Curtis leaves. Unless I can be convince that this is a draft need.
    OL – at OT Pace is the best. Behind him is Barron. A P4 depth need is reasonable I think. But if backup Stuessie departs via FA, then maybe upgrade to P3. At OG, I read that Setterstrom and Incognito did not fare all that badly. Timmerman is a nice reserve, but he’s expensive and getting old. Could use some input on OG and OT. Currently I’m showing P3 for OG.
    OC – I’ve got P3 but perhaps this is too high. Romberg and McCollum are decent. Maybe lower OC to P6 or P9?
    TE – I currently have P4 here, Rams took Klopfenstien last year. Thinking that P4 is too high
    FB – I’ve got P6 but if Rams are happy with Hedgecock, then P9 don’t waste a pick.
    DT – Seems to me an uninspiring and underperforming group. I’ve got a P3 should this be a higher need??? P2?
    DE – Ditto DT. Little is a stud, but the other end needs help. Is this a P1 priority as I show?? Maybe a dual P2 along with DT?
    ILB – Team pleased with Witherspoon. Is there a depth need ? P4 or lower??
    OLB - Chillar young and improving, but seems like Coakley not quite as productive as his Pro-Bowl Cowboy years. P4 depth?? Or P3 look to replace Coakley. Maybe P2 even??
    SS – Chavous had a nice year, I would guess this would not be a priority with Carter in reserve. Can wee move this pick to P9 (do not draft a SS)??
    FS – The Draft Tek model had the Rams drafting FS Landry with a Best Available P4 pick, as all the P1-P3 players were beyond reach range for STL’s #13 pick . LOL. Is FS a P4 need for the Rams?? Atogwe is quite young still.
    CB – Everybody needs good corners, but STL went with Hill last year. Other CB Brown not too bad. I would still think a P3 pick here though
    PK – No worries with Wilkins P9.

    That’s it. I would really appreciate any input you guys could provide. Seems like offensive needs are few and far between. Shore up the D and I don’t see why Rams cannot move into the upper echelons

    Thx,

    -Warren@drafttek.com


  2. #2
    HUbison's Avatar
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    Just my opinion of course, but I think our P1 need is for Strongside OLB. Nothing against Chillar, but we need an upgrade on that side of the unit. After that, I'd say DE and DT both are P2 or P3.

    By the way, I like the Ramirez pick.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

  3. #3
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    Just my opinion of course, but I think our P1 need is for Strongside OLB. Nothing against Chillar, but we need an upgrade on that side of the unit. After that, I'd say DE and DT both are P2 or P3.

    By the way, I like the Ramirez pick.
    I'm thinking P1 or P2= (DT or DE)with Strongside LB P3.

    :r

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    HUbison's Avatar
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by laram0 View Post
    I'm thinking P1 or P2= (DT or DE)with Strongside LB P3.

    :r
    I'll agree all three are needs, but I guess it comes down to which one is contributing the least.....Glover, Kennedy, Adeyanju, or Chillar. IMO, Chillar is the easiest to replace. I could see the argument for any of them if the right prospect were sitting at #13, but all things being equal, I gotta say the SOLB is the immediate upgrade spot.
    "Before the gates of excellence the high gods have placed sweat; long is the road thereto and rough and steep at first; but when the heights are reached, then there is ease, though grievously hard in the winning." --- Hesiod

  5. #5
    laram0's Avatar
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    I'll agree all three are needs, but I guess it comes down to which one is contributing the least.....Glover, Kennedy, Adeyanju, or Chillar. IMO, Chillar is the easiest to replace. I could see the argument for any of them if the right prospect were sitting at #13, but all things being equal, I gotta say the SOLB is the immediate upgrade spot.
    I'm on board with that.

  6. #6
    AvengerRam's Avatar
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    This system seems somewhat familiar...

    I've been using a system for a few years here where I rate the players on two criteria: NEED (positional) and ABILITY. Each has a 1-5 rating. I won't post my ratings until after the combine and the first wave of FA.

    As for your ratings, I think you have underrated the need for upgrading the LB corps.
    Last edited by AvengerRam; -02-13-2007 at 11:16 AM.

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    Draft Tek Guy is offline Registered User
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    Hi Avenger,

    I am really interested in your ratings. I will be certain to check back in March.
    From reading your posts it sounds as if you really go in deep at draft time.

    Laram and Hubison, just the sort of info I need.

    I do not hear much on the offense, do I get that the Rams feel relatively set? Maybe depth picks?

    I have a code "Priority 5" that perhaps best fits the OG need. P5 is essentially a depth value pick, until the 4th round when it toggles to a P2. It effectively ensures that an OG will get plucked in the mid rounds, which is where many teams seem to want to add OG's.

  8. #8
    Nick's Avatar
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    Does this system take into consideration the different types of players within a certain position? For instance, the Rams need a big run stuffing nose tackle; it's arguably their biggest need. But if you designate the Rams' P1 need as a defensive tackle, is your system going to basically view any DT as filling that need? Same for SAM linebacker - if the Rams grade OLB as a P1-3 need, does the program recognize that it's a need on the strong side or will it just take any OLB?

  9. #9
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    I don't see us drafting a fs with our first round pick. If all other need positions are a reach at that point then I would prefer we trade down.

  10. #10
    Draft Tek Guy is offline Registered User
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    Re: Draft Sim: Rams 1st - L. Landry FS 2nd - Q. Moses . . .

    This question has been posed to me quite a bit. No the program does not distinguish between subcategories of the more general DT, OLB and WR designations.

    It would actually not be difficult to do this, but it will need to wait for next years version.

    This is more a function of identifying college players by where they would best project to as a pro. There are some subscription player rating services that I have been reviewing, but this is more than I can handle currently.

    Warren@Drafttek.com


    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    Does this system take into consideration the different types of players within a certain position? For instance, the Rams need a big run stuffing nose tackle; it's arguably their biggest need. But if you designate the Rams' P1 need as a defensive tackle, is your system going to basically view any DT as filling that need? Same for SAM linebacker - if the Rams grade OLB as a P1-3 need, does the program recognize that it's a need on the strong side or will it just take any OLB?

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