Franchise QB's?

[RamsSB99]

I get the feeling some people often get attached to theories that are made up and buy into them. Is it really necessary to draft a so called franchise QB in the first round or are you just as well off getting a QB with NFL experience via free agency or trade? I don’t believe in the theory you need to draft a franchise QB in the first round. I have seen articles (showing QB has more busts then RB & WR) and I believe history shows there has been several first round QB busts.

The following shows Super Bowl QBs from 2000-2009 along with who drafted them and where:

QB’s drafted 1st round with the same team:
Peyton Manning Indy (Round 1 pick 1 Indy)
Eli Manning NY Giants (Round 1 pick 1 NY Giants)
Donovan McNabb Philadelphia (Round 1 pick 2 Philadelphia)
Steve McNair Tennessee Titans (Round 1 pick 3 Houston Oilers at the time)
Ben Roethlisberger Pittsburgh (Round 1 pick 11 Pittsburgh)
Rex Grossman Bears (Round 1 pick 22 Bears)

QB’s Drafted late with same team:
Tom Brady New England (6th round pick #199 New England)

QB’s not with original team:
Kerry Collins New York Giants (Round 1 pick 5 Carolina)
Trent Dilfer Baltimore (Round 1 pick 6 Tampa Bay)
Rich Gannon Oakland (4th Round pick 98 by New England)
Matt Hasselbeck Seattle (Round 6 pick 184 Greenbay)
Brad Johnson Tampa Bay (9th round pick 227 Minnesota)
Jake Delhomme Carolina (Undrafted signed by Saints)
Kurt Warner Rams (Undrafted tried out with Green Bay in 1994 & Bears in 1997 did not make it)

Notable QB’s that did not appear in a Super Bowl over the last ten years:
Brett Favre (Will be a HOF QB 10-Pro Bowls)
Drew Bledsoe (Was consistently among the top QB’s 4-Pro Bowls)
Mark Brunell (Was consistently among the top QB’s 3-Pro Bowls)
Drew Brees (Has consistently been among the top QB’s 3-Pro Bowls)
Trent Green (Was consistently among the top QB’s 2-Pro Bowls)
Carson Palmer (Has consistently been among the top QB’s 2-ProBowls)
Tony Romo (Has consistently been among the top QB’s 2-Pro Bowls)
Marc Bulger (Was consistently among the top QB’s 2-Pro Bowls and had the GSOT around him)
Phillip Rivers (Has consistently been among the top QB’s Pro Bowl)


The following shows QB’s drafted in the first round from 1999-2008 and how many made it to the Super Bowl.

QB’s Drafted since 1999 in the first round:

1999 Draft
#1 Tim Couch
#2 Donovan McNabb
#3 Akili Smith
#11 Daunte Culpepper
#12 Cade McNown

2000 Draft
# 18 Chad Pennington

2001 Draft
#1 Michael Vick

2002 Draft
#1 David Carr
#3 Joey Harrington
#32 Patrick Ramsey

2003 Draft
#1 Carson Palmer
#7 Byron Leftwich
#19 Kyle Boller
#22 Rex Grossman

2004 Draft
#1 Eli Manning
#4 Phillip Rivers
#11 Ben Roethlisberger
#22 J.P. Losman

2005 Draft
#1 Alex Smith
#24 Aaron Rodgers
#25 Jason Campbell

2006 Draft
#3 Vince Young
#10 Matt Leinart
#11 Jay Cutler

2007 Draft
#1 JaMarcus Russell
#22 Brady Quinn

2008 Draft
#3 Matt Ryan
#18 Joe Flacco

Of the 28 QB’s drafted in the first round only four made it to the Super Bowl. Only one of the seven drafted first over all has made it to a super bowl. The other six Couch, Vick, Carr, Palmer, Smith, and Russell may never make it.

[Dominating D]

I get the feeling some people often get attached to theories that are made up and buy into them. Is it really necessary to draft a so called franchise QB in the first round or are you just as well off getting a QB with NFL experience via free agency or trade?


QB via free agency or trade? Slim picking nowadays. Teams no longer carry 3 or 4 QB's on the roster so the days of developing a QB are long gone. Most teams only carry 1 starting QB and a backup QB.

No, you do not have to draft a QB in the first round. However, if you draft a QB in rounds 2-7 the percentage of finding that SuperBowl QB goes way down. So IMHO if you get a 1st round franchise QB you have a better chance of reaching the SUPERBOWL versus trying to find that rare gem.

Lets look at some evidence to support this theory

2001 QB's not drafted in round 1

Drew Bress
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasosopo
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfells
Jesse Palmer
Mike McMahon
A. J. Feeley
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel

2002 QB's not drafted in round 1

Josh McCown
David Garrard
Randy Fasani
Kurt Kitner
Brandon Doman
Craig Nall
J.T. O'Sullivan
Steve Bellisari
Seth Buford
Jeff Kelly
Wes Pate

My count is 21 QB's drafted and I am pretty sure no starting Superbowl QB on the list. So if my math is right 0 out of 21 equals 0 percent. I think the Rams should consider drafting a QB in round 1 in the near future just not this year.

Feel free to add a couple more years if needed in the last decade.

Go Rams

[Rambunctious]

Since 1979 there have been 20 different Quarterbacks to win the Super Bowl.

12 were 1st round picks

8 were 2nd or later round picks


The slight edge may go to the 1st round qbs but success can be found in later rounds.

Just realize that after the 4th round that 8 becomes 4 and the odds drop considerably.

[Dominating D]

Since 1979 there have been 20 different Quarterbacks to win the Super Bowl.

12 were 1st round picks

8 were 2nd or later round picks


The slight edge may go to the 1st round qbs but success can be found in later rounds.

Just realize that after the 4th round that 8 becomes 4 and the odds drop considerably.

How many QB's were drafted in round 1 since 1979?

How many QB's were drafted in round 2 on since 1979?

If your goal is to draft a superbowl QB do you not have to look at the whole picture and understand that you have a much better chance of getting to the superbowl if you draft a QB in round 1 unless your fortuante to find that rare gem?

[Goldenfleece]

Rather than looking at how many first round quarterbacks didn't make it to the Super Bowl, I would look at how many did. That data would suggest that 57% of the quarterbacks who have gone to a Superbowl in the last decade were drafted in the first round.

Despite all of the busts listed there, I still see a lot of guys I wouldn't mind having on the team. Maybe guys like Carson Palmer, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, etc. haven't gone to any Super Bowls yet, but I doubt their teams feel like they wasted their pick either.

[Rambunctious]

How many QB's were drafted in round 1 since 1979?

How many QB's were drafted in round 2 on since 1979?

If your goal is to draft a superbowl QB do you not have to look at the whole picture and understand that you have a much better chance of getting to the superbowl if you draft a QB in round 1 unless your fortuante to find that rare gem?

Good point DD.

There have been 72 qbs drafted in the 1st round since 1979. Those 72 have produced 12 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

There have been 366 qbs drafted in rounds 2 and beyond since 1979. Those have produced 8 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

So you have a 16 % chance of successfully drafting a Super Bowl winning qb in the 1st round and a 2% chance of doing so in rounds 2 and beyond.

I also agree with Goldenfleece so when I have a little more time I will try to break it down by something like Pro Bowlers or play-off appearances.

[Dominating D]

Good point DD.

There have been 72 qbs drafted in the 1st round since 1979. Those 72 have produced 12 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

There have been 366 qbs drafted in rounds 2 and beyond since 1979. Those have produced 8 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

So you have a 16 % chance of successfully drafting a Super Bowl winning qb in the 1st round and a 2% chance of doing so in rounds 2 and beyond.

I also agree with Goldenfleece so when I have a little more time I will try to break it down by something like Pro Bowlers or play-off appearances.

Can not wait to see those numbers. VERY COOL

Question about the dates?

1979

12 first rounders
8 other rounders
------
20 years

So are the rest repeats and should they not be counted?

Brady and Montana versus Aikman, Elway, Big Ben, Bradshaw, Kelly, and company.

[RamsSB99]

Only 4 of the last 10 Superbowls had winning QB's that were drafted before the 6th round by the team they helped win the Superbowl for. The rest either played for another team prior to going to the team they won it all for or were drafted in the 6th round (Tom Brady) or later. That is why I think you can often get a QB with NFL expierence that has a lower bottom and potentially the same upside (Less risk and possibly the same reward). Over the last 10 years 28 QB's have been drafted in the first round only 4 have got their team to a Superbowl.


The following was brought up on the Broncos board about QB busts in the first round by ExBearFan:

I just noticed something. Here are some of the worst QBs in the NFL:

32: Jamarcus Russell (First pick)
31: Josh Freeman (First round)
29: Matthew Stafford (First pick)
28: Mark Sanchez (First round)
27: Kerry Collins (First round)
24: Brady Quinn (First round)
22: Jay Cutler (First round)

At the top:
1: Drew Brees (2nd round)
2: Brett Favre (2nd round)
3: Phillip Rivers (First round)
4: Peyton Manning (First pick)
5: Matt Schaub (3rd round)
6: Big Ben (First round)
7: Tony Romo (undrafted)
8: Donovan McNabb (First round)
9: Tom Brady (6th round)
10: Kurt Warner (undrafted)

Here is something else I found on another board (mocking the draft):

Here's how he started the discussion:
Here's some food for thought...of the 8 division leaders, 6 of them are run by QBs not taken in the first round...

The two teams with first-round quarterbacks are Indianapolis (Peyton Manning) and Cincinnati (Carson Palmer). Both were selected first overall. Here are the other six teams:
• Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre - Second round
• New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees - Second round
• Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton - Fourth round
• New England Patriots - Tom Brady - Sixth round
• Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo - Undrafted
• Arizona Cardinals - Kurt Warner - Undrafted


Jeremiah also offered this nugget:

of the 8 last place teams in each division, 6 of them are run by 1st rd QBs

[Dominating D]

Only 4 of the last 10 Superbowls had winning QB's that were drafted before the 6th round by the team they helped win the Superbowl for. The rest either played for another team prior to going to the team they won it all for or were drafted in the 6th round (Tom Brady) or later. That is why I think you can often get a QB with NFL expierence that has a lower bottom and potentially the same upside (Less risk and possibly the same reward). Over the last 10 years 28 QB's have been drafted in the first round only 4 have got their team to a Superbowl.
:

We know Brady has 3 of them.

Also if you go back 15 years the numbers are more reasonable:

Ben Roethisberger
Eli Manning
Peyton Manning
Ben Roethisberger
Tom Brady
Tom Brady
Brad Johnson
Tom Brady
Trent Dilfer
Kurt Warner
John Elway
John Elway
Brett Favre
Troy Aikman
Troy Aikman

Tom Brady is what everyteam wants. Draft a Hall of Fame QB in the latter rounds. However, the odds in that are slim to none Rambunctious did the math and your looking at a 2% chance.

My point is you can get a QB in the latter rounds and yes 2% do become superbowl winning QB's the odds of a team drafting one is much lower than drafting a QB in the 1st round.

Like they say in the Bizzz thats the bottom line.

Go Rams

[max]

Tom Brady is what everyteam wants. Draft a Hall of Fame QB in the latter rounds. However, the odds in that are slim to none Rambunctious did the math and your looking at a 2% chance.

My point is you can get a QB in the latter rounds and yes 2% do become superbowl winning QB's the odds of a team drafting one is much lower than drafting a QB in the 1st round.

Like they say in the Bizzz thats the bottom line.

Go Rams

That's the thing here. Brady skews the results. One low round draft pick wins 3 SBs and you build a model heavily based on a 2% chance.

[RamsSB99]

How do you explain my previous post listed below? It shows me that drafting a QB in the first round does not mean you will become a playoff contender or have a shot at the Superbowl. IMO saying you have to have a first round QB to be a contender and to make it to the super bowl is false. There are 32 first round picks each year and the Superbowl teams will likely have other 1st round players on their team at different positions. Like I showed in the original post 8 of the 14 QBs (57.2 %) that made it to the Superbowl over the last 10 years were not drafted in the first round by the team they won it for. That means that over half the QB's were found either via free agency or later in the draft. You could probably come up with a stat that would show similar numbers for various positions its not just QB. This year 6 of the 8 (75%) losing teams have first round QB's and 6 of the 8 (75%) winning teams dont have a first round QB.

Often a 1st round QB is setting the bench behind another starter and often they get traded before having success Dilfer & Collins were drafted #1 but made it to the Superbowl with another team. There are several 1st round QB's that could be looking for new homes.

The two teams leading thier division with first-round quarterbacks are Indianapolis (Peyton Manning) and Cincinnati (Carson Palmer). Both were selected first overall. Here are the other six teams:
• Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre - Second round
• New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees - Second round
• Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton - Fourth round
• New England Patriots - Tom Brady - Sixth round
• Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo - Undrafted
• Arizona Cardinals - Kurt Warner - Undrafted


Jeremiah also offered this nugget:

of the 8 last place teams in each division, 6 of them are run by 1st rd QBs



One final note for those that say Brady skews the numbers for QBs that won it. How many of the first round super bowl QB's do you really think have played better then Favre, Brees, Brady, and Warner all of which are not 1st round picks. If you put those four on the team that won it do you not think they could be Superbowl winners on those teams as well?

[Dominating D]

How do you explain my previous post listed below? It shows me that drafting a QB in the first round does not mean you will become a playoff contender or have a shot at the Superbowl. IMO saying you have to have a first round QB to be a contender and to make it to the super bowl is false. There are 32 first round picks each year and the Superbowl teams will likely have other 1st round players on their team at different positions. Like I showed in the original post 8 of the 14 QBs (57.2 %) that made it to the Superbowl over the last 10 years were not drafted in the first round by the team they won it for. That means that over half the QB's were found either via free agency or later in the draft. You could probably come up with a stat that would show similar numbers for various positions its not just QB. This year 6 of the 8 (75%) losing teams have first round QB's and 6 of the 8 (75%) winning teams dont have a first round QB.

Often a 1st round QB is setting the bench behind another starter and often they get traded before having success Dilfer & Collins were drafted #1 but made it to the Superbowl with another team. There are several 1st round QB's that could be looking for new homes.

The two teams leading thier division with first-round quarterbacks are Indianapolis (Peyton Manning) and Cincinnati (Carson Palmer). Both were selected first overall. Here are the other six teams:
• Minnesota Vikings - Brett Favre - Second round
• New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees - Second round
• Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton - Fourth round
• New England Patriots - Tom Brady - Sixth round
• Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo - Undrafted
• Arizona Cardinals - Kurt Warner - Undrafted


Jeremiah also offered this nugget:

of the 8 last place teams in each division, 6 of them are run by 1st rd QBs



One final note for those that say Brady skews the numbers for QBs that won it. How many of the first round super bowl QB's do you really think have played better then Favre, Brees, Brady, and Warner all of which are not 1st round picks. If you put those four on the team that won it do you not think they could be Superbowl winners on those teams as well?

Copy/Paste from Rambunctious

There have been 72 qbs drafted in the 1st round since 1979. Those 72 have produced 12 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

There have been 366 qbs drafted in rounds 2 and beyond since 1979. Those have produced 8 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks.

So you have a 16 % chance of successfully drafting a Super Bowl winning qb in the 1st round and a 2% chance of doing so in rounds 2 and beyond.

No one is saying you can not get a Superbowl Winning QB in the latter rounds. The ODDS of getting one not drafted in the 1st round is 8 out of 366.

The odds of one of those coming out in this years draft is slim and the odds of the Rams drafting the right guy is slim.

Go Rams

[AvengerRam]

Consider this list:

Bart Starr
Roger Staubach
Terry Bradshaw
Jim Plunkett
Joe Montana
Troy Aikman
John Elway
Tom Brady
Ben Rothlisberger

These 9 QBs are the only QBs to start for 2 or more Super Bowl winners.

Of them, 5 were first round draft choices. Starr, Montana, Staubach and Brady were not, but Staubach would have been but for his military service requirement.

Of them, 4 were the first picks of their draft (Bradshaw, Plunkett, Aikman and Elway).

All 9 were clearly "franchise QBs."

So... do you need a "franchise QB" to win a Super Bowl? No.

But if you want sustained excellence, having a top QB is a good place to start.

[Rambunctious]

Here are the numbers for Pro Bowlers. If anyone can think of a different stat to look at I will give it my best shot.

Out of the 72 qbs drafted in the first round since 1979... 24 have gone on to the pro bowl.

This means you have a 33% chance of picking up a PB quality player in the 1st round.

Out of the 366 qbs drafted in rounds 2 and beyond since 1979... 33 have gone on to the pro bowl.

This means you have a 9% chance of picking up a PB quality player in rounds 2 and beyond.