Here is what I'm SURE of about the draft.

[Bald_81]

Call this straight gut feeling, knowledge, idiocy, or premonition, but this is exactly how I feel about the draft as of NOW:

1. Miami will NOT take Jake Long. Jake Long is the biggest smokescreen there is out there right now. All of this talk about Jake being taken #1 by Miami is just Parcells trying to trade down to #3 or #5 so he can grab C. Long/Gholston there. Miami has come out and said it will be hard to pay $35 mil guarenteed to a rookie who has never seen the field, and they desperately want to trade down. They have Chris Long first on their board, with Gholston #2. If they see those two as the similar type of player that will both have success in their scheme, Miami will want to trade down and take Gholston, however if they can't they will stay put and take Chris Long. Jake Long is a smokescreen they are going to use until the draft in the hopes that Atlanta or KC falls in love with Jake so much and their need is too great that they trade up to take him. This, of course, I believe won't happen. Also, two years ago, the Texans had the chance to help their offensive line and take D'Brickashaw, who was considered a franchise LT and was arguably a better prospect than Jake is at the time. Yet, they went to the D-Line and addressed it later in the draft because of the depth. Miami will do the exact same thing, regardless if they can't name the RT on their line.

2. Glenn Dorsey is #1 on the Rams draft board right now. Devaney and Haslett absolutely love this guy. His skill, character and work ethic all jump out at you and they have taken notice. The last thing the Rams need is another lazy player like Kennedy or Byrd; Dorsey would be a great face for the franchise to have. Linehan, however, likes Chris Long more and prays that Miami will somehow trade down or pass on him so that he falls into the Rams laps. He still has major say in the draft process and would definitely pitch the idea to take Chris on draft day. With that being said, this is a make or break year for Linehan, and if the Rams believe that there is another poor season coming and want to build for the future, Linehan might not have the veto he has had in the past. I truly think there are more people in St. Louis who prefer to take Dorsey because it will be a while before another stud DT like him shows up and with Carriker's versatily (I'm not arguing his best position isn't at UT) they can afford to take the BPA and plug him in right away.

3. Jake Long would be a HUGE mistake if we took him. I can not stress this enough. The #2 pick of the draft is supposed to be an impact player from day 1, not someone who is groomed into his spot in the offense over time. People love to nit pick Dorsey about his injury history, so maybe I should start nitpicking about the fact that no one is sold on Long as an LT in the NFL. He is described as a Pro Bowl RT, and his athleticism (B+ as described by Devaney) would be enough to let him get by at LT. That does not sound particularly encouraging to me, how about you? Not only is there alot of great OT depth in this draft, but next year's class is set to be a great one too with Oher, Loadholt, Boone and Smith. If Pace shows signs of wear this season, we can address it next year. This brings me to my point, would we find another Dorsey or Chris Long next draft? No. It's as simple as that. And some users on here, Nick for example, says he would not want to take Dorsey because that would mean our 1st rounder would be splitting time. If we took Jake would that not happen also? Unless he beats out Barron or Incognito, Jake would have to come off the bench and take alot of plays off as well, so it bugs me that he is higher on some boards for that reason.

4. To end on a happy note, I am SURE the draft will be a great experience as it usually is. Unless we take Jake Long, I will have a great weekend. It can not come here quickly enough.

Sorry, had to get that off my chest. I used this board instead of going downstairs and unloading on the punching bag, hope you don't mind.

[txramsfan]

That's ok....this is a cathartic time for fans.

[Rambos]

Miami has come out and said it will be hard to pay $35 mil guarenteed to a rookie who has never seen the field

Can you provide a link or paste that here?

[Bald_81]

Originally Posted by Rambos

Can you provide a link or paste that here?

Dolphins likely to hold onto #1 pick

Originally Posted by Wayne Huizenga

''It is tough when you take a talented player who has never been in the NFL and give him a bunch of signing bonuses and a guaranteed contract and huge dollars,'' Huizenga said.

``If you pay $35 million to a person who does not work out, you are stuck with that for five or six years, which means you can't get rid of them -- which means someone else could be there taking the money. We always pay to the cap. We're not trying to save money. It's a matter of being prudent in putting money in the right place.

'If you hear Bill Parcells or anyone saying, `Hey, I'm not going to pay that for that person,' it doesn't mean they don't want to spend the money -- it means that person is not worth the risk for five or six years . . . If you make a mistake this year, it's harder to undo that mistake . . . Just like it's important to get the right guy, it's just as important not to make a mistake.''

I think that about answers your question, yes?

[cfh128]

Here is what I'm sure about... Bald_81 will stop at nothing to make sure people know that he likes Dorsey

[Goldenfleece]

I think Jake has been getting undue criticism lately. You don't get to be a consensus top five overall prospect unless people think you are going to be an impact player. In a draft heavy with first round offensive line prospects, nobody seems to be questioning that Long is a cut above the rest.

I think the one place we absolutely must get a new starter is defensive end, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Miami goes for Jake Long. I don't think Chris Long is a great fit for them because they'd be playing him as a 3-4 DE, and if I'm the Miami GM, I'm not going to want to pay that kind of a premium on a guy I'm using to tie up blockers more than anything. Their best bet is to trade down and take Ryan, but if they stay put, I'd think they'd be looking at Ryan, Jake Long, or Vernon Gholston. I'd say the Texans example just emphasizes the case for taking an offensive lineman, as the Texans' offensive line is the number one reason they've never done better than 7-9.

As for the Rams, one thing we know about this team is that management is generally very cost conscious. For example, we won't use a first round pick on a safety because we don't want to pay a safety that kind of money. Likewise, it seems unlikely to me that they would want to shell out big money for a position we already have covered. You can argue the wisdom of making that kind of decision based on money/salary cap concerns, but I haven't really seen anything yet to make me think they like Dorsey more than say Chris Long. They seem to be very high on both players from a pure talent evaluation perspective.

[Bar-bq]

Originally Posted by Bald_81

1. Miami will NOT take Jake Long. Jake Long is the biggest smokescreen there is out there right now. All of this talk about Jake being taken #1 by Miami is just Parcells trying to trade down to #3 or #5 so he can grab C. Long/Gholston there.

1. You'd think that for there to be a smokescreen present, there has to be significant interest indicated by the team itself. It's not a drastic smokescreen if he's mentioned evenly among other options. Moreover, methinks the only way Parcells will be able to land Chris Long is at number one. If he falls to number two, he's as good as gone. Gholston may be gone by pick 4, so I'm not sure trading to #5 would achieve much. If the Chiefs were to trade up, they'd be trading up for Jake Long. But if it's so obvious that he's a smokescreen pick, wouldn't it make sense to wait and get better trade value?

Originally Posted by bald

Miami has come out and said it will be hard to pay $35 mil guarenteed to a rookie who has never seen the field

Does this not constitute any rookie who'll be drafted 1 overall?

A trade down seems unlikely at this stage, because, as you say, no team really wants to pay that much.

Originally Posted by bald

and they desperately want to trade down. They have Chris Long first on their board, with Gholston #2. If they see those two as the similar type of player that will both have success in their scheme, Miami will want to trade down and take Gholston, however if they can't they will stay put and take Chris Long.

You keep saying things like this. i.e. "Miami has Gholston number two on their board" and "the Rams have Dorsey first on their board". My question is thus. How in the world do you know? Please, stop attempting to pass off speculation as fact.

Originally Posted by bald

Jake Long is a smokescreen they are going to use until the draft in the hopes that Atlanta or KC falls in love with Jake so much and their need is too great that they trade up to take him.

This is exceptionally ironic. Atlanta and Kansas City's needs are so great along the offensive line that they must trade up to number one overall to fill the hole? What's more, the Dolphin's line is in arguably worse shape than the other teams you specify! Why, therefore, would a team trade up to fill such a need, when the Dolphins themselves, who are in at least as much OL trouble as the Falcons or Chiefs won't even do it? It makes no sense! You don't think the great Bill Parcells has considered this?


Certainly Miami's OL in worse shape than their own pass rush LB core.

Originally Posted by bald

Also, two years ago, the Texans had the chance to help their offensive line and take D'Brickashaw, who was considered a franchise LT and was arguably a better prospect than Jake is at the time. Yet, they went to the D-Line and addressed it later in the draft because of the depth. Miami will do the exact same thing, regardless if they can't name the RT on their line.

Two years ago, Mario Williams and Reggie Bush were available. The Texans couldn't name their own starting RB. (part of that's because he was in thr process of changing his last name, but you get the idea ) They also had significant needs at defensive end. Do the Dolphins have such a need at 3-4OLB? With the players they've signed? And the players they already have on their roster? The depth in that year's class differs from this years class because in the that year, it afforded the Texans the ability to adress another area of need first overall, with the widely touted BDPA, and still take Winston a little later. Can they do that this year? Where is the significant area need that they can afford to bypass Jake Long to fill? They're two entirely different scenarios, which are distinguished not by the OL depth of the class, but by the teams picking first, the players available, and their areas of need.

Originally Posted by bald

2. Glenn Dorsey is #1 on the Rams draft board right now. Devaney and Haslett absolutely love this guy. His skill, character and work ethic all jump out at you and they have taken notice.

Until I'm corrected, I'm working under the assumption you've spoken with both Devaney and Haslett about the upcoming draft, and that they were completely open and honest with you about their preferences. It must be nice for them to have someone to confide in.

Originally Posted by bald

The last thing the Rams need is another lazy player like Kennedy or Byrd; Dorsey would be a great face for the franchise to have.

Is this a significant issue with any of the top 4 Ram candidates?

Originally Posted by bald

Linehan, however, likes Chris Long more and prays that Miami will somehow trade down or pass on him so that he falls into the Rams laps. He still has major say in the draft process and would definitely pitch the idea to take Chris on draft day.

...Because you've spoken with Linehan, too, and, save your use of past tense "would" I'd be working under the premise that you were aided, also, by the benefit of time travel.

Originally Posted by bald

I truly think there are more people in St. Louis who prefer to take Dorsey because it will be a while before another stud DT like him shows up and with Carriker's versatily (I'm not arguing his best position isn't at UT) they can afford to take the BPA and plug him in right away.

Where? Plug him in where? That's the problem I have with Dorsey. Where to put him without diminishing the playing time, or compromosing the best abilities of the players you already have? We've debated this before, so you know how I feel on this one.

Originally Posted by bald

3. Jake Long would be a HUGE mistake if we took him. I can not stress this enough. The #2 pick of the draft is supposed to be an impact player from day 1, not someone who is groomed into his spot in the offense over time.

Of course, that's why Carson Palmer sat for a year. That's why Peyton Manning had such a significant impact year one. That's why Steven Jackson spelled Marshall Faulk. That's why Braylon Edwards was Great hus first two seasons. That's why Orlando Pace was abysmal in his first.

[/quote]
People love to nit pick Dorsey about his injury history, so maybe I should start nitpicking about the fact that no one is sold on Long as an LT in the NFL. He is described as a Pro Bowl RT, and his athleticism (B+ as described by Devaney) would be enough to let him get by at LT.[/quote[

Again, how do you know this? I understand the Devaney bit, have read it myself, but I can't get by the "no one in the NFL" part. Surely, there are undisclosed opinions. Surely some of it is smoke. Would we be selecting Long to replace Pace, anyway? Perhaps he fills Barron's spot; you can't count that out.

Originally Posted by bald

If Pace shows signs of wear this season, we can address it next year.

Wasn't that the problem THIS year? That we had nobody to fill the void? We still do not.

Originally Posted by bald

If we took Jake would that not happen also? Unless he beats out Barron or Incognito, Jake would have to come off the bench and take alot of plays off as well, so it bugs me that he is higher on some boards for that reason.

Typically, offensive linemen do not spilt time. They do not fuction as a part of a rotation. if we draft Jake Long, he competes to start at both Guard and Tackle. Incognito and Setterstrom have the versatility to slide over to play C, so that's where the real battle may lie.

Originally Posted by bald

4. To end on a happy note, I am SURE the draft will be a great experience as it usually is. It can not come here quickly enough.

Amen! Though we may disagree on the aforementioned issues, and I may have been, perhaps, too sarcastic, on this we can most certainly agree. I'm planning to have a great weekend whoever we select. I can't wait either, and I look forward to more of this to-and-fro up until draft day, and perhaps in the Clanram Chatroom at said time aswell!

[Nick]

What I'm sure about regarding the draft is there's no way to be sure about anything.

[Bar-bq]

Originally Posted by Nick

What I'm sure about regarding the draft is there's no way to be sure about anything.

Gee, could've saved myself a half hour's worth of a post.

[Bald_81]

Bar-bq, if you read the first line of my post, you would see that its how I feel about the draft, and what my heart and mind are set on. In no way am I speaking on the Rams behalf, so when I talk about who is first on their draft board or what have you it is basically what I believe. Just thought I would clear that up.

I wish I could be in the chatroom with you guys on draft day, we'll see how that goes. Depends if I'm going to a friend's house to watch the draft, if not, you can count me in.

[tomahawk247]

its funny how you say that Jake Long is Miami's smokescreen when no one from their organisation has talked about him at all. The people who are saying Jake Long will go at number 1 are the people who have speculated that after looking at Miami's roster

and you are so sure about Dorsey being number 1 on the Rams draft board because Devaney and Haslett have talked him up. Doesnt that scream smokescreen to you? why would they say so much about being interested in one player? From a Rams standpoint Dorsey has been talked up way more than both Longs and Gholston, which definitely suggests Dorsey is the smokescreen. There would be no other reason for the Rams to release such information at this point

[Bald_81]

Originally Posted by tomahawk247

its funny how you say that Jake Long is Miami's smokescreen when no one from their organisation has talked about him at all. The people who are saying Jake Long will go at number 1 are the people who have speculated that after looking at Miami's roster

and you are so sure about Dorsey being number 1 on the Rams draft board because Devaney and Haslett have talked him up. Doesnt that scream smokescreen to you? why would they say so much about being interested in one player? From a Rams standpoint Dorsey has been talked up way more than both Longs and Gholston, which definitely suggests Dorsey is the smokescreen. There would be no other reason for the Rams to release such information at this point

For your first point, I suggest you watch this video:

Jake Long to Miami?

As for your second point, when Nick Wagoner writes about the teams immense interest in Dorsey and how impressed they came away after his Pro Day, it solidified their thoughts about him because he answered injury concerns. Remember, he can be #1 on their board, but that doesn't mean he is the pick. I'm sure alot of teams have McFadden as their #1 player but would he be the pick? No. I'm just convinced Dorsey is #1 on the Rams board and he will be heavily considered to be taken with their pick.

[Bar-bq]

Originally Posted by Bald_81

when Nick Wagoner writes about the teams immense interest in Dorsey and how impressed they came away after his Pro Day, it solidified their thoughts about him because he answered injury concerns.

But isn't Nick Wagoner rather directly employed by the St.Louis Rams? Suerely it all could be smoke?

I think, however, the more pertinent criticism is thus. The NFL.com mock draft. Chris Long, not Jake, goes #1 overall to Miami...and Nick Wagoner makes the pick for the St. Louis Rams. He selects Jake Long for the St. Louis Rams, noting he can start at guard, and then slide ver to tackle to replace either Pace or Barron.

[Nick]

Originally Posted by Bar-bq

But isn't Nick Wagoner rather directly employed by the St.Louis Rams? Suerely it all could be smoke?

No, don't you get it? It's never smoke when it's something positive about Dorsey and the Rams' interest or when Nick Wagoner writes it. But when it's something about medical concerns as reported by Howard Balzer, it's clearly not true because it's part of a team's strategy if not a possible reporter's agenda. :x

[Bald_81]

Originally Posted by Nick

No, don't you get it? It's never smoke when it's something positive about Dorsey and the Rams' interest or when Nick Wagoner writes it. But when it's something about medical concerns as reported by Howard Balzer, it's clearly not true because it's part of a team's strategy if not a possible reporter's agenda. :x

I never said they were not a concern, find something from me to quote me on that. I have said that it has been overblown, which i