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How to Read Between-the-Lines and Predict Draft Choices
I'll start by contradicting my own thread title - YOU CAN'T REALLY PREDICT DRAFT CHOICES. Even the best "experts" generally have no better than a 1 in 3 accuracy rate for the players selected, and a 1 in 2 accuracy rate for picking the correct positions to be drafted by each team.
That said, here are some tips that will increase your ability to anticipate what draft day will bring:
1. Ignore what the teams say (and the reporters who report it). Nobody - not even the team with the first pick (unless they pre-sign a player) is going to reveal their intentions prior to the draft. In fact, they are more likely to deliberately mislead than to divulge anything meaningful.
2. Don't buy into the "best player available" concept too much. While a lot of teams like to spout the "BPA" party line, few live up to it. Truth is, BPA is in the eye of the beholder anyway.
3. There usually is some method to the madness. With the exception of Detroit, most teams make rational choices to select players in positions of need. But don't assume that "position of need" means that there isn't a good player on the roster already. If a team has a Pro Bowl player who is (1) 30 or over, or (2) in a contract year, that is a position of need.
4. There will be a trade that will mess up all preditions. Its going to happen. You won't know where or when, but it will happen.
So, sit back and enjoy the draft. Its the uncertainty that makes it fun!
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