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Thread: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

  1. #16
    richtree's Avatar
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post
    I didn't say he wasn't a good WR. I was thinking he'd be taken in Rd 2-3 at latest. Hes extremely big and very fast. He also has great hands, which showed during the gauntlet. And yes, I understand what GT ran... He had 28 catches and averaged an insane 29 YPC. I dont see us taking him because it will take a year or two for him to be dominant in the NFL, its not college anymore where you can run 9's all game and get open. If he goes to a team like Den or Chicago or the Jets he will light it up simply for the fact that he will be a deep threat and nothing more for a year.

    WR needy teams (#1 WR) will not take just Stephen Hill. They will also grab an FA WR, or draft another. He will be sick in the NFL, but he is too raw. Blackmon will dominate right away because he has an array of routes. Hill basically is a 9 route guy, he will have to develop his routes.

    Plus, I think he goes to Houston. Perfect match.
    Let me ask you a question...Just to play Devil's advocate then.....

    If Justin Blackmon played at Georgia Tech this year, do you think he could have played any better in that system than Hill ?

    If Hill was at Okl. State we would probably be saying he is a guaranteed 1st rounder.

    Blackmon is still rated highest, but not at the level of Julio Jones or AJ Green last year.

    If Julio Jones was in this draft, he would be the top 5 pick and Blackmon would fall to next available WR need draftee


  2. #17
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    I can see why people are jumping off the Blackmon bandwaggon.

    He was terrible in last week's game.

  3. #18
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by richtree View Post
    Let me ask you a question...Just to play Devil's advocate then.....

    If Justin Blackmon played at Georgia Tech this year, do you think he could have played any better in that system than Hill ?
    Yes, I do.

    If Hill was at Okl. State we would probably be saying he is a guaranteed 1st rounder.
    He'd likely have better numbers so, maybe.

    Blackmon is still rated highest, but not at the level of Julio Jones or AJ Green last year.
    I rate Blackmon on par with Jones.

    If Julio Jones was in this draft, he would be the top 5 pick and Blackmon would fall to next available WR need draftee
    Maybe. And maybe that would be a mistake.

    Look... before anyone goes nuts over Hill, let's take a closer look.

    He built up some nice stats (7 receptions, 307 yards, 3 TDs) against weak-sisters Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee.

    Against stronger opponents, though, he did not fare so well. His total stats in his 5 worst games (vs. Kansas, NC St., UVa, Miami and bowl game against Utah) were as follows: 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD.

    Blackmon's WORST game this year was against Missouri. He had 8 receptions, 54 yards and 1 TD in one half (he sat out the second half with an injury).

    If you want a direct comparison, here are Hill and Blackmon's stats against Kansas, their only common opponent:

    Blackmon: 8 receptions, 84 yards, 2 TDs
    Hill: 1 reception, 4 yards, 0 TDs

    Just sayin'
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  4. #19
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Look... before anyone goes nuts over Hill, let's take a closer look.

    He built up some nice stats (7 receptions, 307 yards, 3 TDs) against weak-sisters Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee.

    Against stronger opponents, though, he did not fare so well. His total stats in his 5 worst games (vs. Kansas, NC St., UVa, Miami and bowl game against Utah) were as follows: 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD.

    Blackmon's WORST game this year was against Missouri. He had 8 receptions, 54 yards and 1 TD in one half (he sat out the second half with an injury).

    If you want a direct comparison, here are Hill and Blackmon's stats against Kansas, their only common opponent:

    Blackmon: 8 receptions, 84 yards, 2 TDs
    Hill: 1 reception, 4 yards, 0 TDs

    Just sayin'
    Alright, I'm going to show once again how easy it is to make the case for drafting a player by using stats. Just to be clear, I'm not arguing with you on the issue of Blackmon vs. Hill because I believe JB is the superior prospect. Just the fact that you're using statistics to prove your point makes me cringe (*this is not a recording*). For the sake of this comparison, I'll choose another wide receiver from the Big 12 who shared a lot of common opponents with Blackmon. And away I go...

    I really believe we should take Ryan Broyles over Justin Blackmon. If he didn't get hurt this past season, he would easily be the better prospect. Why? Well it's because he had better numbers than him before his injury. Broyles only played eight full games, but let's look at his totals compared alongside Blackmon:

    First 8 Games
    Blackmon: 74 REC, 834 YDs, 10 TDs
    Broyles: 81 REC, 1070 YDs, 10 TDs

    *Broyles got hurt during his ninth game and missed the rest of the season.

    During that span, both Broyles and Blackmon shared four common opponents (Tulsa, Missouri, Texas, Kansas). Broyles had better numbers than Blackmon in each of those games. Therefore, we can conclude that Broyles is the better prospect correct? Same conference, shared large number of common opponents, etc. and Broyles performed better. No, because it's not true.

    This is why statistics are wrong, and in my opinion are a cop out answer. Broyles was not the greater prospect coming into this season, and even without the injury would not be drafted in the first round like Blackmon will. Calvin Johnson was already considered a premier prospect before his junior season occurred and was projected to go in the top three in the '07 draft. His sophomore season numbers? 54 REC, 888 YDs, 6 TDs. Hardly the the eye popping stats you'd expect from a future top three pick. But the point is there were extenuating circumstances and reasons for his low production. It did not take away from the fact that he was a beast waiting to happen once he reached the NFL. Blackmon is a fantastic prospect and I am a fan of his. I am not doing this to degrade him or express my hate, but to merely show how I can manipulate stats myself and illustrate how lower tier prospects like Broyles (even if he stayed healthy -- and was on pace to have better numbers) can not hold a candle to Blackmon in terms of talent. I have yet to see you convey why you're a fan of Blackmon past his statistical output and consistency putting up numbers. Just sayin'.

    Cliff Notes:
    - Wrong to use stats (and only stats) when trying to make the case for drafting a player
    - Broyles outperformed Blackmon in terms of numbers and versus four common opponents in 2011
    - Still, Blackmon = 1st round prospect, Broyles = day two prospect even without his injury
    - Stats do not tell the entire story when evaluating a prospect
    Last edited by Bald_81; -02-27-2012 at 09:21 PM.

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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    I have been ON the Justin Blackmon bandwagon since Nov. of 2010 and havn't thought about getting off... Stats don't mean everything, as well as 40 times, height and all the other bs people try to water down what Mr. Blackmon has done. This is plain and simple.... every single game Justin Blackmon comes to play and it owns no matter what level of competition you put against him... nuff said.
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Blackmon was the #4 WR statistically last season. Does that mean Kendall Wright must be better since we only care about on the field production in college. Same type of offense. Same conference so it's an easy comparison.

    In 2010, Salas had the most yards from scrimmage and more receptions for a WR. If that's all we need, why are the Rams interested in drafting a WR? They have a top 10 WR already. Pettis had more yards than AJ Green. So the Rams have 2 top flight WRs.

  7. #22
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by richtree View Post
    Let me ask you a question...Just to play Devil's advocate then.....

    If Justin Blackmon played at Georgia Tech this year, do you think he could have played any better in that system than Hill ?

    If Hill was at Okl. State we would probably be saying he is a guaranteed 1st rounder.

    Blackmon is still rated highest, but not at the level of Julio Jones or AJ Green last year.

    If Julio Jones was in this draft, he would be the top 5 pick and Blackmon would fall to next available WR need draftee
    What does any of this have to do with anything? Dont get me wrong, I'm not saying Stephen Hill wont be good. The guy is nasty but raw. For a team like the Rams who need a dominant #1 WR Hill just doesn't fit that right now. We need a polished route runner who will have instant success running all types of routes. For a team like the Ravens, or Texans Hill is perfect. They have some nice established WR's that will allow Hill to focus on just being a deep threat while developing into a complete WR.
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  8. #23
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by Bald_81 View Post
    - Wrong to use stats (and only stats) when trying to make the case for drafting a player
    - Broyles outperformed Blackmon in terms of numbers and versus four common opponents in 2011
    - Still, Blackmon = 1st round prospect, Broyles = day two prospect even without his injury
    - Stats do not tell the entire story when evaluating a prospect
    Nobody said stats were everything. The fact is, Broyles is undersized for the position. Blackmon is not.

    Hill, on the other hand, dissapeared in several games. That's a significant statistical fact.

  9. #24
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by Tampa_Ram View Post
    You forgot hes a great route runner as well
    I think his ability to turn water into wine is also pretty special.
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  10. #25
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by AvengerRam View Post
    Yes, I do.



    He'd likely have better numbers so, maybe.



    I rate Blackmon on par with Jones.



    Maybe. And maybe that would be a mistake.

    Look... before anyone goes nuts over Hill, let's take a closer look.

    He built up some nice stats (7 receptions, 307 yards, 3 TDs) against weak-sisters Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee.

    Against stronger opponents, though, he did not fare so well. His total stats in his 5 worst games (vs. Kansas, NC St., UVa, Miami and bowl game against Utah) were as follows: 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 TD.

    Blackmon's WORST game this year was against Missouri. He had 8 receptions, 54 yards and 1 TD in one half (he sat out the second half with an injury).

    If you want a direct comparison, here are Hill and Blackmon's stats against Kansas, their only common opponent:

    Blackmon: 8 receptions, 84 yards, 2 TDs
    Hill: 1 reception, 4 yards, 0 TDs

    Just sayin'
    Just sayin', those comparisons mean absolutely nothing because we all know the triple option offense is not an offense you would expect big numbers from a WR, no matter who he is. Last I checked, if the ball isn't thrown your way, you're likely not going to catch it.

    And any scout who's worth anything knows that, and will certainly take that into consideration when evaluating Hill.

    That said, I don't know how these guys ended up being compared to each other in the first place.

    Everybody knows Blackmon is the number one rated WR in this year's draft, and that Stephen Hill was virtually unknown prior to the combine. But that's exactly what the combine is for, for lesser known players to make a name for themselves and that's exactly what Hill did.

    And I would argue that Stephen Hill has improved his stock more than any receiver on the board, by running faster than everybody else, and showing he can catch the ball when it is thrown to him.


    That is impressive I don't care who you like or who is the favorite.
    Last edited by Fortuninerhater; -02-28-2012 at 02:57 AM.

  11. #26
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by sosa39rams View Post

    Plus, I think Hill goes to Houston. Perfect match.
    Man...lined up across from Dre (who IMO is the best WR in the NFL) could be SCARY. That kid can learn from an ALL-TIME great. I could definitely see Houston being interested. They certainly have the perfect mentor.
    Last edited by THOLTFAN81; -02-28-2012 at 04:15 AM.

  12. #27
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    I think without a doubt the top 2 WRs are Blackmon and Floyd. I'd be happy with either one, but I'm also starting to hope we keep trading back and draft Floyd.

    He's nothing like Alexander. Alexander had 1 good year and then blew out his knee. Floyd has been a top college WR all 4 years, and was thought as one of the top WR prospects in the nation coming out of high school. Floyd is big, strong, and has decent speed. He'll be a threat deep because even if he doesn't outrun his man, he could out jump them. That will also make him the more valuable goal-line WR. He has good hands and route running as well. Just not as great as Blackmon's right now.

    Blackmon is not a big threat to take it all the way, or out jump his man. Possession WRs are usually called #2 WRs. I think that's what the OP meant. Blackmon is less risky, so I understand if people would rather have him. I just think both will be good, and Floyd will be the bigger weapon (and we need weapons!!). Plus we could add an extra pick or two. Or better yet we sign a good proven FA WR, and use the picks on other needs.

    I like Hill's potential, but I think the risk is too great for us to use a 1st or 2nd round pick on him. I agree with Sosa that he'd be a good gamble for a good team.
    Last edited by md8; -02-28-2012 at 08:09 AM.

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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Thats it, I'm officially on the bring back Gilyard bandwagon!

  14. #29
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    Quote Originally Posted by berg8309 View Post
    Thats it, I'm officially on the bring back Gilyard bandwagon!
    Thats still better then the bring back Bennett bandwagon............the thought of Bennett makes me shutter.
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  15. #30
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    Re: I'm officially off the Blackmon bandwagon

    considering all the trade rumors of what the Rams might receive for the #2 pick:

    is anyone still arguing Blackmon is worth the #2 pick?
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