Justin Blackmon is not worth #2

[RebelYell]

I can respect the statement "Blackmon is not the best choice for the No. 2 pick" (though I disagree with it).

I can't understand how anyone could say that "Blackmon is not worth the No. 2 pick." He grades out as an elite WR prospect. If his production matches his rating, he is clearly worth taking at No. 2.

Who graded him out when he hasn't even done his pro-workout or interviews with scouts?

[md8]

Rotoworld
Josh Norris
Friday, February 10, 2012

Every year leading up to the draft, certain prospects seem ticketed for specific teams or to be taken highly due to groupthink, publicity, and name recognition. These predictions may or may not pan out. Usually, they don’t, and that’s what makes the NFL draft so enticing: suspense and unpredictability.

Detailed below are ten players I feel are currently being overrated, overhyped, or overvalued by media members. I’ve done extensive film study on each, and my opinions are not based on statistics, college awards, or conventional wisdom. Presently, I believe these players are receiving too much positive attention in media evaluations and mock drafts.

All 40 times and heights/weights for non-senior prospects are projected.

Overrated:

1. Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (6-1/215/4.54) - Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

I don't watch college football, but everything I read about the guy makes me think of him just with the potential to be a good #2 WR. He might be able to catch a lot of short passes, but I don't believe he'll have high yardage totals. We would still need a playmaking WR.

[Nick]

I don't know who Josh Norris is. Interestingly enough, his Twitter profile says he was with the St. Louis Rams Scouting Department as an intern during the 2010 Training Camp & 2011 NFL Draft. He's as welcome to his opinion as any of us are. Some of his comments I find a bit strange and disagree with and some I think are good points.

For instance, I agree that Blackmon isn't the elite prospect that A.J. Green was, but when compared to Julio Jones, I don't know. I remember when Blackmon was considering/rumored to be coming out last year, there was plenty of draft discussion as to who would be the #2 WR behind Green between Jones and Blackmon. Ultimately, I think you have to look at where Blackmon stacks up against the prospects in this class. I think he grades out among the Top Five; in their latest mock, Norris and Rotoworld had Blackmon taken outside the Top 15. I don't see that happening, but we'll see if they're right.

Additionally, it seems strange to me that he'd argue that Blackmon simply isn't a vertical threat only to then point out that he was generously given five to seven-yard cushions that he was able to eat up on shorter routes. My question to Norris would be, if Blackmon "simply isn't a vertical threat" and makes a vast majority of his plays within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, why would he face consistent cushions and off-coverage that indicate defenders don't want him to get behind them? His observations, IMO, don't match his conclusion.

For whatever reason, it seems there has been more doubt in Blackmon's stock than any of the top prospects following the college football season, this despite an incredible showing in his bowl game. It's a bit puzzling to say the least. If Justin shows up at the combine and runs in the mid 4.5s, then it's only going to get worse. As a fan and a novice in the draft scouting world, I think either Blackmon or Kalil make the most sense for the Rams in this class. I believe they're both of good enough value to be considered, and both represent need positions. I'll take either, at this point. In fact, I believe I had the Rams taking Kalil in my last mock, despite being someone who has harped on this team's need for a playmaking WR for three seasons now.

But if the Rams don't grade Blackmon as a viable option with a high pick, then I hope that this organization has some plan for upgrading the starting receivers on this roster, because the guys they've been lining up out there for the past couple of years simply have not gotten the job done. If that's not Justin Blackmon, fine. But it'd better be someone.

[AvengerRam]

The problem here is that people tend to equate 40 time (which, for Blackmon, remains unknown) with "vertical threat." That can be a mistake.

Take, for example, Jordy Nelson. By my research, his best pre-draft 40 time was 4.51, which is good, but not exactly "burner speed." Nonetheless, he averaged 18.6 yards per reception this year, and had receptions of 84, 50, 93, 64, 55 and 58 yards over the course of the year. Clearly, if a receiver knows how to run a good pattern, he can be a "vertical threat" even if he is not a speed merchant.

I think Blackmon, who runs very good patterns and is very strong, can be that kind of player at the NFL level.

[AvengerRam]

Who graded him out when he hasn't even done his pro-workout or interviews with scouts?

Have you bothered looking at his numbers from the last two years? If he's not an elite WR prospect, I don't know who is.

[MauiRam]

The problem here is that people tend to equate 40 time (which, for Blackmon, remains unknown) with "vertical threat." That can be a mistake.

Take, for example, Jordy Nelson. By my research, his best pre-draft 40 time was 4.51, which is good, but not exactly "burner speed." Nonetheless, he averaged 18.6 yards per reception this year, and had receptions of 84, 50, 93, 64, 55 and 58 yards over the course of the year. Clearly, if a receiver knows how to run a good pattern, he can be a "vertical threat" even if he is not a speed merchant.

I think Blackmon, who runs very good patterns and is very strong, can be that kind of player at the NFL level.

Absolutely it can be a mistake. Some guys require a tick or two longer to get off the blocks in the 40 yard dash for whatever reason. Once they do get off the line and hit their top gear regardless of their posted forty time, no one can catch them.

I'll use quarter mile drag racing as an example. Winning a drag race is all about elapsed time right? That said, many times a car or dragster will lose a race even though posting higher top speed at the finish line than the winner. Elapsed time is the criteria for winning in quarter mile racing - just as it is in the 40 yard dash. Scoring touchdowns in the NFL is not about elapsed time - top end speed is probably more important than a quick 40 time run on a track ..

Jerry Rice ran between 4.6 and 4.71, but once he got behind coverage he was gone .. How many receivers run a blazing 40 time on a track, but can't get off the line cleanly because of being jammed or rerouted? I'm with GC on letting our newly acquired "football guys" make the choices on who we draft. If they believe Justin Blackmon has "it", then he'll likely be a Ram ..

[TekeRam]

As good as the combine is for standardizing the draft field against one another, in reality, all the combine is are the underwear olympics. That's it.

Will Floyd, Jeffery, Wright or Blackmon score a touchdown at the combine? Will Kalil flatten a DE and a OLB to free a RB for a TD? Will he stonewall a pass rusher? Will Richardson out juke a linebacker who caught back up with him to get fooled again(that's my favorite play of his!) at the combine?

No. Whatever happens at the combine will have no effect on what they can/have shown to do on the field.

The reason that Kalil, Blackmon, and Richardson are at the top of their positions is because of what they did on the field. And to get this back on track, as Av said, when you look at the game film of Blackmon, he can dominate a game, like he did in the Fiesta. When you dominate a game against two other top 10 picks(admittedly not directly against), then you are yourself a top 10 pick and can be picked anywhere in there.

If we trade from #2, which I very much support, we might not have a chance at Blackmon. The Browns could trade up in order to get him and not RG3. The Vikings could take him to replace Rice. Jax could trade up. You never know.

What we do know, however, is that Blackmon can get separation, can make amazing catches, and can be a strike from anywhere player, making DB's miss. If we stay at #2, he's the only guy I'd take.

[mcpeepants232003]

Have you bothered looking at his numbers from the last two years? If he's not an elite WR prospect, I don't know who is.

yes numbers mean everything. Take a look how great Avery was after his brilliant college numbers.

The truth is Blackmon isn't the 2nd best prospect in the draft. Realistically he's probably not top 5. If we do not move down we should not take Blackmon. I know it's not the popular pick but at #2 we should take either Claiborne or Kalil. Both are much are going to much higher grades than Blackmon.

People are failing to realize there are tons of other ways to get a top receiver. We can get him in free agency, we can make a trade or we can draft one with our 2nd round pick. Let's face it we are going to have the first pick on day 1 and our choice of great wide receivers.

I have no problem with us taking Blackmon but not at 2.

[Bald_81]

Have you bothered looking at his numbers from the last two years? If he's not an elite WR prospect, I don't know who is.

Let me first state that I am a fan of JB, but this is where your argument in favour of Blackmon takes a huge hit. It's fine to question the validity of timed speed when trying to project an impact receiver in the NFL, but it's wrong to bring stats into the equation. There are so many varying factors and circumstances that go into the statistical output of a given player, so just to essentially conclude that he's an elite WR prospect based on his numbers the past two seasons is, well, silly.

The irony is that we need look no further than a Rams WR who had outstanding numbers but was not an elite prospect. We currently employ a wide receiver (Greg Salas) who was taken in the fourth round last year. Here are his totals in his final two seasons at Hawaii:

2009: 109 Rec, 1590 YDs, 8 TDs
2010: 119 Rec, 1889 YDs, 14 TDs

Based on those numbers and your logic, Greg Salas should have been a top five pick because his numbers clearly illustrate that he is an elite WR prospect. As I said before, your rationale when it comes to timed speed is certainly justified and remains up for debate but I take exception to you jumping to conclusions based solely on numbers.

[AvengerRam]

You have to look at level of competition. If Blackmon had played in Hawaii's conference, he probably could have had 2,500 yards and 30 TDs per year.

I truly think that some of you who are criticizing Blackmon never (or barely) saw him play. I've seen several of his games, and the guy was a man among boys playing in a major BCS conference.

If the Rams pass on him, I believe they will one day regret doing so.

[TekeRam]

If the Rams pass on him, I believe they will one day regret doing so.

As in April 27th?

[Bald_81]

You have to look at level of competition. If Blackmon had played in Hawaii's conference, he probably could have had 2,500 yards and 30 TDs per year.

I truly think that some of you who are criticizing Blackmon never (or barely) saw him play. I've seen several of his games, and the guy was a man among boys playing in a major BCS conference.

If the Rams pass on him, I believe they will one day regret doing so.

I had a feeling you would bring up the level of competition. Would it satisfy you if I mentioned Michael Crabtree instead? Both played in the same conference.

In their first seasons as starters:

Blackmon: 111 Rec, 1782 YDs, 20 TDs
Crabtree: 134 Rec, 1962 YDs, 22 TDs

We all know the story with Crabtree. Basically, as I was saying before numbers do not exactly equate to being an elite prospect in the eyes of NFL scouts. You go on to assume that the people who don't watch Blackmon haven't seen his games. This not only isn't true (in my case, at least) but the mere fact that you were pointing to his receiving statistics as a major proponent as to why we should draft him implies that his game tape doesn't matter. If he has incredible numbers at the college level for the past two seasons, why bother looking at the tape? That's why I find your second statement problematic. Not to mention you think most of us haven't seen him play, but by just blindly pointing to his statistics basically screams the idea that his game tape doesn't matter because his numbers tell the story. I guess you need to elaborate more next time.

[THOLTFAN81]

Justin has your 40 time right here...



That was injured.

[HUbison]

Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks

Dear Josh,

Stop smoking crack. He put up big numbers on all of us, and we either play on Sunday or will.

Sincerely,

Earl Thomas (Seahawks starting FS)
Aaron Williams (Bills CB)
Prince Amukamara (Giants 1st round pick in 2011)
Eric Hagg (Browns DB)
Alfonzo Dennard (#4 CB prospect in this draft)
Quinton Carter (Broncos starting Safety)
Jonathan Nelson (our draft pick and now Panthers Safety)
Leonard Johnson (CB draft prospect in this draft)
Jamell Fleming (CB draft prospect in this draft)

[sosa39rams]

Justin has your 40 time right here...



That was injured.

You do know 2 WHITE guys were chasing him right?