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Thread: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

  1. #16
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    I made a thread about this. The speed accusations are ridiculous.

    Receiver 1
    6'4, 207 pounds, 4.50 forty time, 34.5" vertical, 10'6 broad jump

    Receiver 2
    6'3, 215 pounds, 4.46 forty time, 35' vertical, 10'4 broad jump

    Receiver 1 is AJ Green. Receiver 2 is Blackmon with an additional 2 inches added to his height.

    Blackmon is faster than Boldin, Nicks, Fitzgerald, Stevie Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Dwayne Bowe, and AJ Green just to name a few. If he plays at 4.5 he has more than enough speed to be an elite number 1 receiver.

    He's not Torrey Smith or Mike Wallace. That's not the receiver he is.
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    When you are comparing people, it's about having a COMPARABLE number. I don't understand why people have a difficult time understanding this. Maybe next time Blackmon should choose a track that is sloped downhill, he may end up being the fastest guy in the NFL before it's all done.

    People say you can't compare him to other WRs previously drafted because it's unfair. Guess what, he'll be compared every week for the rest of his career. Get used to it.

    Forty times aren't the end of any evaluation but it's an important guide in a speed dominated league. If speed doesn't matter, did you watch Peterson return those punts last year for the 9ers? How about Smith of the Ravens? Make those guys 4.5 runners, do you really think they are making those contributions? Of course they would, speed doesn't matter. Just ask Chris Johnson.
    I believe you missed my point.

    You brought up a player whose Combine time was not an accurate measurement of his on-field speed, hence why a number of people following the draft were surprised by the number Wright posted yet in more agreement with his pro day number. Point being, the Combine isn't always the most accurate judge of an attribute.

    Therefore, since we know the Combine forty time is not infallible, the effort you'd spend trying to project what Blackmon's Combine forty would have been probably isn't worth it, especially since no one's claiming the guy is an absolute burner. But he does have enough speed to be a very successful player at the NFL level. Just ask Hakeem Nicks, who is comparable in many ways including straight line speed over forty yards.


    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    People didn't say Blackmon needed to run a 4.5 at his Pro-Day.
    After he chose not to run at the Combine, they absolutely did. Going into the OSU pro day, that was the bar that many were setting, and Blackmon exceeded it.
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  3. #18
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    Personally, I completely disagree. Claiborne is a better CB than Blackmon is WR. So, he's certainly better than the lesser Floyd.
    Well if Blackmon is gone. I would rather Rams trade down for more picks then take CB Claiborne or WR Floyd.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post





    A couple of notes...

    -I'm not sure anyone is arguing that Blackmon has "elite" speed. But if that was the be all and end all of the discussion, then the Rams' need at the position wouldn't be as great because Donnie Avery would have just signed his $10 million per season contract extension as one of the best in the league.

    -Your choice to use Wright as an example was an interesting one, since he was expected to run much faster at the Combine and most believe that his pro day numbers were more representative of what you see on film when you watch him play. Point being, the Combine forty number isn't always the most accurate measurement.

    -When Blackmon chose not to run at the Combine, people said he needed to run faster than a 4.5 at his pro day to ease concerns about his speed. He did just that, and yet for some reason, these questions are still coming up...

    -I agree that you can't pick a WR just because you need a WR, and have to choose from the best players available. Of course, that's what the Rams are doing by considering Blackmon. It's not like we're talking about the Rams taking Stephen Hill sixth overall. We're talking about the Rams taking a guy who is in the discussion for Minnesota @ 3, Cleveland @ 4, was very much in the discussion for Tampa @ 5 before they signed Vincent Jackson, and will definitely be in the discussion for Jacksonville and Miami @ 7 and 8 respectively. The "reaching for need" argument doesn't really apply when you're talking about a prospect that is widely considered not only a Top Ten prospect but an option in the first five picks.




    Forty times are a great piece of information, but that's it - they're a piece. The people who think you live and die by them and hold them up as the most important piece of the evaluation process are really missing the point. A forty time should either (1) support what you've seen on film, or (2) cause you to go back and take another look at the film to reevaluate. A forty time should not be THE evaluation, but for some, that's what they base their opinions on.

    I agree 100%. The reason I like Blackmon so much is his performance in big games. The bigger the game the better he performs.
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    You brought up a player whose Combine time was not an accurate measurement of his on-field speed,
    This should be interesting, how do you think the field at indy is an inaccurate measure of speed if everyone is running on the same field? It's not inaccurate, it's slow. Tracks by themselves aren't more or less accurate, some are faster and slower than others and it's why teams adjust the times to make them comparable.

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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nick View Post
    I believe you missed my point.

    You brought up a player whose Combine time was not an accurate measurement of his on-field speed,
    Every track functions at a different speed. Indoor race tracks are faster than outdoor tracks because of the surface used. Doesn't mean the results determining the winner of an indoor race are less accurate. They just aren't comparable to the results of an outdoor track.

    Wright ran a 4.6
    Floyd ran a 4.47

    Those are both accurate results when comparing the two. When Wright later ran a 4.4 something it doesn't mean that he all of a sudden became faster than Floyd.

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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    This should be interesting
    I bet it'd be even more interesting if you made an attempt to acknowledge my main point rather than ignoring it to go on a second tangent.


    Quote Originally Posted by RebelYell View Post
    how do you think the field at indy is an inaccurate measure of speed if everyone is running on the same field?
    Now you're twisting my words. I never said it was inaccurate, just that it isn't always the most accurate.

    To go back to your example, Wright attributed his slow time at Indy to his start, or the manner in which he ran the actual drill. Many of those who followed the draft felt that Wright's pro day time was more in line with what you see on the field. Therefore, in Wright's case, the pro day time - not the Combine time - provided a more accurate picture of his speed.

    There are any number of factors that can affect a player's workout; that's why they train heavily leading up to the workouts in order to perform the best and why some opt to perform these workouts in the best settings possible for them, especially when they have much more to lose than they do to gain. Injury is one factor that could affect how a prospect performs in these evaluations, and it's the factor Blackmon cited when he chose not to run.


    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadlock View Post
    Those are both accurate results when comparing the two. When Wright later ran a 4.4 something it doesn't mean that he all of a sudden became faster than Floyd.
    See above. The point wasn't that one track is "inaccurate," but rather that an individual's result on the track may be due to any number of factors.

    In Wright's case, he believes his Combine time was negatively affected by his start. My guess, based on the vast number of opinions and articles I've read over the course of this process, is that many people who cover this for a living believe Wright's pro day time was more in line with what they saw on tape than his Combine time.
    Last edited by Nick; -04-16-2012 at 06:18 PM.
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  7. #22
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    I just read that the U.S. Track team is going determine who will run the 4x100 relay by having them put on pads and run a scrimmage against the New York Giants defense.
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Ah, the days of willie gault (speaking of track guys that couldn't catch a cold on the football field). Its really too bad that there is no available footage that i am aware of showing skeets nehamiah at the whiners training camp back in the day. Probably the greatest first day of practice in the history of wide receivers, until day two when they went to live action and he tried going over the middle for the first time in his life, whereupon he ceased to be a functioning entity as a football player after getting absolutely killed trying to catch the ball. Skeets was of course one of the fastest men in the world at the time, a world champion hurdler no less.

    Ramming speed to all

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  9. #24
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Tye Hill and Jon Wade were both track champions. We should try them out at CB or something.
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Kinda off-topic, but I was just wondering if you (Av) were going to set up the "Draft Contest: Who's In Your 15?" again this year. I always enjoy it and I'm not sure how late it started last year, so I just wanted to ask if you were planning to have it again. It adds another dimension to draft day for the fans so I really enjoy it.

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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    Tye Hill and Jon Wade were both track champions. We should try them out at CB or something.
    Hub please keep in the loop.... Gawd!!! They are going to be at trainging camp this year and Cortland Finnegan will compete for a starting position with those two...

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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Justin King is in the all time top 10 of combine 40 times i believe

    With regards to Kendall Wrights 40 time at the combine, he accidently moved his hand before the start of his 40, which started the timer before he actually started. Hand timed, and hand timed at his pro day, he ran the same speed he always does. He didn't shave any time off his 40 at his pro day, he was just one of the first people at the combine to fall foul of the electronic timing system

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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shan the Ram Man View Post
    I agree 100%. The reason I like Blackmon so much is his performance in big games. The bigger the game the better he performs.
    I love Blackmon because even though teams knew the balls was coming his way and game planned for it, he still produced, every time. Was always a constant factor and never disappeared in games. That can't be said for the majority of the rest of the WR's in the draft.
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by tomahawk247 View Post
    With regards to Kendall Wrights 40 time at the combine, he accidently moved his hand before the start of his 40, which started the timer before he actually started. Hand timed, and hand timed at his pro day, he ran the same speed he always does. He didn't shave any time off his 40 at his pro day, he was just one of the first people at the combine to fall foul of the electronic timing system
    Which is exactly the point I'm making - for Wright, his pro day time is viewed as a more accurate representation of his on-field game speed than his Combine time.

    That's not to say the Combine itself is inaccurate, but just isn't always the most accurate gauge of a player's skill for various reasons. Wright's situation illustrates one of those reasons. A player attempting to work out with an injury (ie. Blackmon) would be another.

    Said one scout after Wright's Combine forty: “Kendall Wright plays much faster than he was clocked. We’re not concerned at all.” In fact, Wright himself joked at one point that he hadn't run a 4.6 since fifth grade.

    ...

    So with that in mind, I think the emphasis put on trying to figure out what Blackmon's Combine time would have been is unnecessary in the grand scheme of things.

    First and foremost, it's a complete guessing game. You can be as logical as you can about it and you're still only making an educated guess rather than dealing with a true, factual numbers.

    Additionally, if Blackmon was not 100% as he claimed, then any Combine time he would have achieved would not have been a truly accurate picture of his healthy, on field speed. When you're talking about mere tenths and hundredths of seconds, even slight outside factor can make a difference (see: Wright's situation).

    But thirdly, since no one is claiming Blackmon has elite speed, do we really need to try and project what his combine time would have been as a means to prove something that no one is trying to claim? Probably not.

    The only number we have is his pro day time, which scouts will adjust accordingly and to a varying degree depending on their past experience and information about the track. For all this talk about OSU's fast track, I'd point out that last year, running back Kendall Hunter ran a 4.53 second forty in Indy and a 4.52 second forty with the wind at his pro day.

    But regardless, even when you adjust Blackmon's pro day time by using extreme adjustments like an entire tenth of a second, the result still indicates that Blackmon has enough speed to be a top-notch receiver. So what are we talking about here?

    Frankly, the speed discussion should be settled by this point in the process. Is he an elite burner? No. Is he fast enough to be a legitimate top receiver in the league? Yes.
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    Re: Justin Blackmon's skills have diminished in recent weeks.

    Quote Originally Posted by HUbison View Post
    Tye Hill and Jon Wade were both track champions. We should try them out at CB or something.
    This is your example? If this is considered a relevant example, show me a pro-bowl CB in the last 10 years who ran a 4.6 or higher at his pro-day. Since speed doesn't matter, this should be easy.

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