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Thread: Manti Te'o ?

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    No doubt Dunbar could move to Sam, but the problem is there isn't a large crop of Rd 1 WILL LB either, that can rush the passer and cover.

    As far as SAM and speed need, I just got done reading my Lindy's, and almost every guy with spped issues they say "would have to play SAM" , or could still be effective at SAM.

    Sam linebackers have to be able to take on blockers and seal holes, and not a ton of coverage responsibilities in most defenses. In many defenses it's a guy they use low priced guys because it isn't really a play making position. The Rams were that way for a long time, still are.

    The SAM is the guy, when you have Laurinaitis type MLB, who comes off the field in the nickel, sometimes in short yardage, so you don't need an elite talent that makes big bucks there. You don't see Sam LB 15 yards downfield very often, even 10. or 5. Their area to cover is the smallest of a non-lineman.
    So with all that in mind, specifically the bolded parts of your analysis, is SAM 'backer really something the Rams should be spending a first round pick on?

    If they're flexible enough to feel they could instead look for a guy who can replace Dunbar at WILL, then I think they open themselves up to a lot of options all through this draft: Ogletree, Brown, Greene, Gooden, Porter, etc.


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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    I think you are right about the 4.75 LB number, but Te'O ran 4.71 so he makes it.

    Again, NO safety has been taken that ran over 4.55 not in the last 10-20 years at least.

    That's why I don't see it happening this year either.
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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    For the record, I think the Rams would only be lookig at "3 down" type LB in round one, regardless of where they end up playing. Problem is, there are only two or three in all of round one.

    Hopefully a veteran one year guy that can play will be available.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    I feel like they would believe that one of Greene, Brown, or Gooden will be there in round two, but after that it gets pretty skippy, as far a starter caliber guys right away.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Again, NO safety has been taken that ran over 4.55 not in the last 10-20 years at least.
    Ed Reed ran a 4.57.

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    But as you said directly, Barry, and as Nick alluded to, and I mentioned... we don't need a First round talent at SAM, and we most likely have the option of shifting Dunbar to the strong side if we find and get a natural WILL. If the draft throws you weak side guys, you don't over draft a strong side guy who only plays 1-2 downs.

    If T'eo is there in the 2nd round and we think that he's fast enough(based on film and then timed speed) and can play WILL pass coverage, then I'd jump on him. But I wouldn't take any linebacker in the first round, as we're either committing him or Dunbar to part time play.

    Dunbar was not good in pass coverage last year, but was good at the read-option (and took out Alex Smith) and rushing the passer. He deserves the snaps, but I'd be looking for some one who compliments him, not who can do what he does best. To me, that's pass coverage 'backer. And we can get that in the 2-4th rounds.
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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    To recap:
    Te'o played ILB in the 3-4 through college and now people want to move him outside in the 4-3 when people have serious concerns that he is fast enough to play inside. Sounds smart.

    Te'o had good ball skills in zone coverage. Notre Dame rarely if ever operated in man coverage.

    Te'o was a terrific ILB at the college level. He's a 4th round talent as an ILB at the pro level. He's an undrafted free agent and on the scrap heap as an OLB in the 4-3. Rams would be better off bringing back Rocky than getting Te'o.

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    I think you are right about the 4.75 LB number, but Te'O ran 4.71 so he makes it.
    I apologize, I should have been more clear. In the last decade, there has not been a first round linebacker drafted to play in the 4-3 who has run slower at the Combine than 4.76.

    Comparing a decade's worth of Combine times to a pro day time is an apples to oranges comparison; you're talking about two different things at that point. The only time that would make sense would be if the athlete did not run at the Combine, but Te'o did.


    EDIT: As a follow-up, I've gone back and looked at the pro day times for the first-round 4-3 linebackers from the last decade, and none of them were slower than 4.68. So, Te'o would still be the slowest first round linebacker drafted to play in the 4-3, even when comparing his pro day time to those of the other first round 4-3 linebackers.
    Last edited by Nick; -03-26-2013 at 07:10 PM.

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    <<<Comparing a decade's worth of Combine times to a pro day time is an apples to oranges comparison; you're talking about two different things at that point. The only time that would make sense would be if the athlete did not run at the Combine, but Te'o did.>>

    Oh my gosh. You just don't get it. It's THE SAME distance, usually the same surface. It's TURF at Indy, a fast track.

    It's the same with pro athletes as it is race horses. It's all about the FASTEST time at that distance. A great horse can have a bad day.

    The combine time forty and the official pro day times are controlled by the NFL, and neither carries more weight.

    It's ALL about BEST time. SOme guys run twice at one event and run two very different forty times, one a bad start whatever, It's about knowing that this human being is CAPABLE, on a football surface, to run forty yards exactly, with the same rules, same NFL coaches running the show, same timers, at a time within their parameters for a top pick.

    Te'o did that, and that's why he is back into first round consideration, and that combine forty is forgotten as an fluke, a bad day, and that the speed the analysts who played see on tape, DOES trnslate to his best forty right now.

    The reason they have pro days where they run, is to see if they just had an off day at the combine, and if they run bad again, it's pretty much confirmed, if they run way better, it's just that they were off somehow that other day, nervous, whatever.

    What if a guy is fighting the flu or something, and you just give up on him, while others stay on him.

    The fact is, except at high altitude, or wind aided, when one looks at the 100 meter dash records, it doesn't have an asterisk because it happened at some smaller meet instead of the Olympic finals.

    Same distance, same clock, the rest doesn't matter.

    I can't believe anyone wouldn't see that.

    I have heard coaches say they value pro days MORE, FAR MORE, than the combine, which is a bit of a chinese fire drill, with very little time to meet players and interview them, or focus on a guy.

    They save that for the pro days, where they have just a handful of players there. They prefer to judge passers throwing to their own receivers, and receivers catching from their regular QBs .

    They like meeting with players on their home turf, where they will be more likely to relax and be themselves . They get a chance to do way more medical stuff at the pro days, to follow up on anything they may have seen at the Combine.

    The pro days are where each team will go a different direction with their GM and head coach, not all lumped in one place.

    Ask any GM which one they would eliminate, and I would bet anything they would say the Combine, especially now that it has become a televised media event.

    In the future, with so many top players not working out at the combine, I think the NFL will just do away with it, and save the money it costs.

    After all, the guys invited to the combine are very well known to teams anyway, having been closely scouted for two or three years. There are no surprises in combine or pro day, but you will hear GMS on draft day, like last year with Quick, Zuerline, Givens, Hekker, Johnson, Brockers and Jenkins, RAVING about their pro day.

    THey hardly even MENTION what they saw at the combine; way more mention of Senior Bowl week and East West Shrine week, and the Pro Days and private workouts.

    That's the way it is, and you can take it or leave it and keep being wrong. Your choice.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    Te'o did that, and that's why he is back into first round consideration, and that combine forty is forgotten as an fluke, a bad day, and that the speed the analysts who played see on tape, DOES trnslate to his best forty right now.
    Te'o was never out of first round consideration...


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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    Also, your research is seriously flawed, and here is why. How many MIDDLE linebackers hve been drafted in round one in 10 years? That's what Te'o is, so you have to compare him to other MLB, not all the LB that have been drafted, that is OLB. I notice you won't count 3-4 OLB that would be DE in a 4-3.

    Rolando McClain ran 4.68 at his pro day, HE was a first round MLB.
    Brian Cushing is an ILB, and guess what, he ran 4.79 at the combine

    Nearly all the three or four ILB drafted since 2003 are 3-4 ILB.

    SO there really is no basis for comparison for round 1 MLB.
    I suggest you look at the 2nd round LB, where the best MLB usually go, and look at THEIR forty times

    Akeem Ayers ran 4.84, for instance and went pick 39
    Sergio Kindle ran 4.71 and went 43rd
    Koa Misi ran 4.75 and went 40th
    Laurinaitis ran 4.76 and went 35th
    Rey Maualuga ran 4.78 and went 38th
    Curtis Lofton ran 4.79 and went 37th
    Jordon Dizon ran 4.71 and went 45th
    Paul Posluszny ran 4.70 and went 34th
    D'Quell Jackson ran 4.73 and went 34th
    Barrett Ruud ran 4.75 and went 36th
    Lofa Tatupu ran 4.83 and went 45th


    I'll stop there, I think I made my point
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    >>Te'o was never out of first round consideration>>

    Yea, he was. At least according to the TV guys on every channel. Kiper just said he was for one analyst. Mayock said he might go 30th before, and that's the best, most optimistic you heard. Many kept talking about Laurinaitis an how Te'o was headed to a similar slot in the draft after being a first round guy since he was a junior at least.

    You should watch more TV.

    If he ran 4.83 again , he definitely would be second round. Now he has proven he isn't slow.
    Barry Waller

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Waller View Post
    >>Te'o was never out of first round consideration>>

    Yea, he was. At least according to the TV guys on every channel. Kiper just said he was for one analyst. Mayock said he might go 30th before, and that's the best, most optimistic you heard. Many kept talking about Laurinaitis an how Te'o was headed to a similar slot in the draft after being a first round guy since he was a junior at least.

    You should watch more TV.

    If he ran 4.83 again , he definitely would be second round. Now he has proven he isn't slow.
    No. You should watch less TV. No team that loves a guy will pass on him because of a slow 40 yard dash. Either a team was going to take him in the 1st because they loved what he can offer, or not. I won't believe for a DAMN second that a pro day 40 (which was only 1 tenth of a second faster) will move him up or down 10-15 spots, sorry.


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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    Barry, mere days ago, you argued that you value the Combine time the most, even over pro days, because everyone is running on the same surface under the same conditions (link). Your current claim that neither carries more weight than the other, and the differences in conditions at the pro day do not matter because it's the same distance with the same clock, does not seem to reconcile with your previous statements on this board.

    For me, in my opinion, I agree with your previous stance. Pro days certainly have their merit, especially when it comes to teams getting more time to meet and look at an individual prospect, but I value the results of Combine forties more than that of pro days due to their more standardized conditions at one location, with obvious exceptions being made for prospects who do not participate at the Combine and only have pro day numbers to work from.

    As for my research, I considered ALL linebackers drafted to play in the 4-3, middle and outside. Since this is a thread discussing the merits of drafting Te'o in the first round to play 4-3 outside linebacker on the strong side, comparing Te'o to other 4-3 OLB is hardly inappropriate or flawed in my opinion. I did not consider linebackers drafted to play inside in a 3-4 as it is a different scheme; I do not believe that makes it a flawed exercise.

    Finally, if I could put my moderator hat on for a moment, I'm going to politely tell you that you need to find ways of disagreeing respectfully with someone, which means not making comments like, "Oh my gosh. You just don't get it," or "That's the way it is, and you can take it or leave it and keep being wrong."

    These are the kinds of unprovoked, borderline personal snipes that instigate off-topic arguments because of how aggressive and confrontational they are. So, you either need to find ways of expressing your disagreement without taking these kinds of subtle jabs, or your posts will be deleted. That is your choice.
    Last edited by Nick; -03-27-2013 at 07:47 AM.

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    Re: Manti Te'o ?

    >>No team that loves a guy will pass on him because of a slow 40 yard dash. Either a team was going to take him in the 1st because they loved what he can offer, or not. I won't believe for a DAMN second that a pro day 40 (which was only 1 tenth of a second faster) will move him up or down 10-15 spots, sorry.>.

    First off, teams do not "love a guy", and Les Snead and Fisher have both said that is the WORST thing you can do in a draft.

    Secondly, teams WILL certainly lower a guy on their draft board if he runs worse than what they have as the expectation for the position, espevially at LB, WR, DB, RB, TE.

    I guarantee there are teams that got off players for bad forty times, and went to a different player at the same position that passed that guy.

    I could list dozens of examples over the years, but I'm tired of doing research for people who don't understand it, don't accept it, and just resent that I have proof that shows how very wrong they are, let alone what I have heard from the mouths of so many coaches and GMs.

    Your take here is plain wrong.

    Te'o, after all his off-field follies, dropped from a top 15, to MAYBE a round one guy late, with so many teams needing LB from 23 to 32.

    When he ran 4.83, he dropped another 15 spots on most people's boards, in other words OUT of round one, because of 35 better players rated ahead of him.

    Now he is at least shown to have average speed, which moves him back up 10 spots or so.

    You may be the ONLY guy I have heard that still had Te'o in round one, other than Notre Dame fans.

    It's still not a 100% SURE thing though. Won't know that till draft day.

    How many MLBs you think have gone in round one in 10 years? Is Te'o at the very top of that list as a prospect ? Lots of guys btter than him at ILB have gone in round two over the years,and in FACT, that is
    the norm (drafthistory.com look into it) .

    When you make a statement like you did, so sure, I would ask you to show some reason, some proof, where an edge guy or MLB or safety or TE ran really poorly and still got snatched early because a team "loved them",

    In fact, show me where a "slow" guy at those positions has EVER been a top 15 pick. Guess no one ever loved a slow guy at those positions enough to go that high, EVER.

    The last "slow" receiver I saw go high was Jerry Rice, who ran 4.6, but I think that may have been a special case. I've never seen a cornerback go high that didn't run under 4.4, or a safety that ran over 4.5.

    Never seena big, slow TE go early either, just the fast, and tall guys .

    I just don't understand your view of what goes on in War Rooms, but that view from me is only based on talking to the guys in them year after year, draft after draft.

    I think you are talking about fantasy football drafts, when you talk of "loving a guy".

    In this draft, there are about 50 guys, maybe more, that Fisher and Snead "love", if you want to call it that, and most will run great forty times, unless they are QB, guards, centers, OT, or DT.
    Barry Waller

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